NBA · Apr 27 gameAll props Full sheet

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

FinalIND 129 – MIL 103Page updated 21:45 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 6 availability alerts

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 14 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 20 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 31.5 → 19 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 15 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · Out · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · listed out, then played

points 18.5 → 17 actual

Milwaukee Bucks

AJ Green · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 9 actual

Gary Trent Jr. · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 6 actual

Jericho Sims · minutes unknown

points 1.5 → 6 actual

Kyle Kuzma · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 3 actual

Myles Turner · Out · rest · listed out, then played

points 14.5 → 23 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIL expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 226.5 points · odds to win: IND 2.50, MIL 1.60

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Mon 01:30 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 21:45 UTC

Who is out

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 251 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Jericho Sims · points 1.5 → 6 · 4.5 above the line · played 14.3 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · points 6.5 → 15 · 8.5 above the line · played 22.4 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · points 11.5 → 20 · 8.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · no final price

Kyle Kuzma · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 16.1 min · no final price

Myles Turner · points 14.5 → 23 · 8.5 above the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 14.2 min · no final price

Gary Trent Jr. · points 12.5 → 6 · 6.5 below the line · played 32.4 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · points + rebounds + assists 31.5 → 19 · 12.5 below the line · played 29.4 min · no final price

AJ Green · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.6 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · points 18.5 → 17 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.6 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIL vs IND · last 39 games · MIL leads · MIL record 25–14 · average score 119.9–115.1 · MIL has won by 4.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Oct · IND 102 at MIL 110MIL won

16 Oct · MIL 128 at IND 127MIL won

15 Mar · IND 123 at MIL 134MIL won

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up115.2 points · 47.5 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 35.9% from three-point range

MIL gives up121.2 points · 48.9 rebounds · 27.8 assists · 35.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 115.2 points a game · 20th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.9 vs average

MIL gives up 121.2 points a game · 28th of 30 · league average 113.3+7.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 172 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 188 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 254 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 276 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 294 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 326 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 332 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 335 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 338 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 367 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 381 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 415 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 346 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 348 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 732 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 350 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 351 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 353 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 352 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 358 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 359 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 369 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 391 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 407 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.