NBA · Apr 28 gameAll props Full sheet

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

FinalCLE 138 – MIA 83Page updated 21:25 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 5 availability alerts

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 22 actual

Evan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 17 actual

Jarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 14 actual

Sam Merrill · Out · right elbow injury management (elbow) · listed out, then played

points 6.5 → 9 actual

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 12 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 13 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 8 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 24 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 21:25 UTC

Who is out

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 241 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Nikola Jović · points 7.5 → 24 · 16.5 above the line · played 29.3 min · no final price

Sam Merrill · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 19 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · points 19.5 → 13 · 6.5 below the line · played 31.8 min · no final price

Davion Mitchell · points 11.5 → 8 · 3.5 below the line · played 35.2 min · no final price

Andrew Wiggins · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 22.3 min · no final price

Donovan Mitchell · points 25.5 → 22 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.6 min · no final price

Jarrett Allen · points 12.5 → 14 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.3 min · no final price

Evan Mobley · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 23 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIA vs CLE · last 28 games · MIA leads · MIA record 14–14 · average score 110.1–112.4 · MIA has lost by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Mar · MIA 128 at CLE 149MIA lost

25 Mar · MIA 120 at CLE 103MIA won

What each defense gives up per game

CLE gives up115.0 points · 46.4 rebounds · 26.2 assists · 35.5% from three-point range

MIA gives up120.0 points · 45.7 rebounds · 29.7 assists · 39.5% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CLE gives up 115.0 points a game · 19th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.7 vs average

MIA gives up 120.0 points a game · 26th of 30 · league average 113.3+6.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 234 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 234 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 241 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 331 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 333 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 334 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 337 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 345 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 346 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 371 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 485 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 623 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 865 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 177 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 196 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 814 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.