NBA · Apr 30 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers

FinalMIN 103 – LAL 96Page updated 21:03 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 3 availability alerts

Out Edwards · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · MIN

Out DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · MIN

Out Grimes · right finger sprain (finger) · LAL

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Edwards · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · MIN

Out DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · MIN

Out Grimes · right finger sprain (finger) · LAL

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Rudy Gobert · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 27 actual

Anthony Edwards · Out · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · listed out, then played

points 28.5 → 15 actual

Donte DiVincenzo · Out · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · listed out, then played

points 10.5 → 9 actual

Los Angeles Lakers

Austin Reaves · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

Jarred Vanderbilt · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 2 actual

Luka Dončić · minutes unknown

points 31.5 → 28 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LAL expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 212 points · odds to win: MIN 3.19, LAL 1.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 02:00 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 21:03 UTC

Who is out

Out Edwards · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · MIN

Out DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · MIN

Out Grimes · right finger sprain (finger) · LAL

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 194 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Rudy Gobert · points 6.5 → 27 · 20.5 above the line · played 38.6 min · no final price

Austin Reaves · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 40.7 min · no final price

Anthony Edwards · points 28.5 → 15 · 13.5 below the line · played 43 min · no final price

Jaden McDaniels · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 17.9 min · no final price

Jarred Vanderbilt · points 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.5 min · no final price

Donte DiVincenzo · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.2 min · no final price

Luka Dončić · points 31.5 → 28 · 3.5 below the line · played 39.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LAL vs MIN · last 27 games · MIN leads · LAL record 13–14 · average score 108.9–109.6 · LAL has lost by 0.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up107.0 points · 43.2 rebounds · 24.0 assists · 32.0% from three-point range

LAL gives up114.4 points · 40.9 rebounds · 27.6 assists · 37.6% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 107.0 points a game · 7th of 30 · league average 113.3−6.3 vs average

LAL gives up 114.4 points a game · 17th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 196 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 248 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 271 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 272 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 275 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 288 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 346 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 349 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 364 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 106 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 457 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 802 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 160 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 161 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 163 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 207 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 348 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 638 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 671 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.