NBA · May 5 gameAll props Full sheet

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

FinalDEN 121 – OKC 119Page updated 20:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 7 availability alerts

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 14 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

rebounds 12.5 → 22 actual

Oklahoma City Thunder

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 9 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 32.5 → 33 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

points 5.5 → 3 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

rebounds 8.5 → 6 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

points 21.5 → 16 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

OKC expected to win by about 10 · both teams together expected to score about 229.5 points · odds to win: DEN 4.65, OKC 1.23

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 01:30 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 20:33 UTC

Who is out

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

OKC had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 229 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Aaron Gordon · rebounds 5.5 → 14 · 8.5 above the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · rebounds 12.5 → 22 · 9.5 above the line · played 42.4 min · no final price

Alex Caruso · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.2 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · rebounds 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.9 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · points 21.5 → 16 · 5.5 below the line · played 37.6 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 40 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 44.3 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · rebounds 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 29 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 32.5 → 33 · 0.5 above the line · played 39.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

OKC vs DEN · last 33 games · DEN leads · OKC record 16–17 · average score 111.9–111.1 · OKC has won by 0.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Oct · DEN 84 at OKC 96OKC won

10 Apr · OKC 107 at DEN 127OKC lost

What each defense gives up per game

DEN gives up112.8 points · 44.7 rebounds · 28.7 assists · 34.9% from three-point range

OKC gives up105.9 points · 44.7 rebounds · 24.6 assists · 33.1% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DEN gives up 112.8 points a game · 14th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

OKC gives up 105.9 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.4 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 10, expected total 229.5 (Tue 01:30 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 01:30 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 63

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 113 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-04)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 165 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 246 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 247 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 283 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 341 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 344 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 346 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 351 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 359 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 88 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 89 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 232 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 270 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 270 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 272 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 273 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 303 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 304 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 325 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 330 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 330 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 343 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 713 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 404 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1085 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.