NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 09:05 UTC

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

at Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC expected to win by about 10 · both teams together expected to score about 229.5 points · odds to win: DEN 4.65, OKC 1.23

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 01:30 UTC

DEN 121 – OKC 119

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DEN = Denver Nuggets, OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Denver Nuggetsplaying OKC

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 14 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

Peyton Watson · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 3 actual

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying DEN

Aaron Wiggins · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 5 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 3 actual

Chet Holmgren · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 6 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 9 actual

Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Jalen Williams · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 16 actual

Luguentz Dort · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 14 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 32.5 → 33 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:05 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DEN had 149 days off before this game · OKC had 119 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 229 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Aaron Gordon · rebounds 5.5 → 14 · 8.5 above the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Isaiah Joe · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 12.5 min · no final price

Alex Caruso · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · no final price

Luguentz Dort · points 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.2 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · rebounds 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.9 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · points 21.5 → 16 · 5.5 below the line · played 37.6 min · no final price

Peyton Watson · points 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 14.5 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 40 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 44.3 min · no final price

Aaron Wiggins · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 13.6 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · rebounds 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 29 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 32.5 → 33 · 0.5 above the line · played 39.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

OKC vs DEN · last 32 games · DEN leads · OKC record 15–17 · average score 112.4–111.9 · OKC has won by 0.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

10 Apr · OKC 107 at DEN 127OKC lost

9 Mar · DEN 126 at OKC 129OKC won

27 Feb · DEN 121 at OKC 127OKC won

What each defense gives up per game

DEN gives up116.6 points · 43.1 rebounds · 27.4 assists · 34.8% from three-point range

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DEN gives up 116.6 points a game · 20th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

OKC gives up 107.9 points a game · 2nd of 30 · league average 115.3−7.4 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 10, expected total 229.5 (Tue 01:30 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 01:30 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-04)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 24 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 24 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 30 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 121 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 124 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 138 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 115 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 237 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 487 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 565 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 654 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 661 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 758 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 765 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 769 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 794 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 795 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 796 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 803 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 887 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 922 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.