NBA · May 7 gameAll props Full sheet

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

FinalDEN 106 – OKC 149Page updated 20:15 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 7 availability alerts

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 10 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 3 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 1 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

rebounds 13.5 → 8 actual

Oklahoma City Thunder

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 2 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 45.5 → 46 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

points 5.5 → 8 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

rebounds 5.5 → 4 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

OKC expected to win by about 10 · both teams together expected to score about 230 points · odds to win: DEN 4.98, OKC 1.20

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 01:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 20:15 UTC

Who is out

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 232 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 5 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Alex Caruso · points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 2 · 13.5 below the line · played 9.8 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · assists 5.5 → 1 · 4.5 below the line · played 31.4 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 11.5 → 3 · 8.5 below the line · played 26.3 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 11.9 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · rebounds 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 32.3 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · points 16.5 → 10 · 6.5 below the line · played 26.7 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 22.2 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · rebounds 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.5 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.4 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points + rebounds + assists 45.5 → 46 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

OKC vs DEN · last 33 games · DEN leads · OKC record 16–17 · average score 111.9–111.1 · OKC has won by 0.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Oct · DEN 84 at OKC 96OKC won

10 Apr · OKC 107 at DEN 127OKC lost

What each defense gives up per game

DEN gives up112.8 points · 44.7 rebounds · 28.7 assists · 34.9% from three-point range

OKC gives up105.9 points · 44.7 rebounds · 24.6 assists · 33.1% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DEN gives up 112.8 points a game · 14th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

OKC gives up 105.9 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.4 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 63

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 259 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 279 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-06)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-05)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-04)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 282 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 305 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 305 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 384 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 110 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 395 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 406 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 596 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 596 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 255 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 297 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 296 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 297 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 298 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 312 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 313 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 364 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 586 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.