NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 5 · series tied 2–2updated 19:33 UTC

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

at Oklahoma City Thunder

No game odds posted yet

DEN 105 – OKC 112

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DEN = Denver Nuggets, OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

7 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 4 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Denver Nuggetsplaying OKC

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 13 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 8 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 28 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 44 actual

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying DEN

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 13 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 15 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 31.5 → 31 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

points 5.5 → 4 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

points 15.5 → 14 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

points 21.5 → 18 actual

Jaylin Williams · Out · low back spasms (back) · listed out, then played

points 2.5 → 2 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 19:33 UTC

Who is out

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 223 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Alex Caruso · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 23.8 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · points 27.5 → 44 · 16.5 above the line · played 44.1 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · points 19.5 → 28 · 8.5 above the line · played 42 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.1 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 12.5 → 8 · 4.5 below the line · played 43 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.7 min · no final price

Jaylin Williams · points 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 10.4 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · points 21.5 → 18 · 3.5 below the line · played 37.5 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · points 15.5 → 13 · 2.5 below the line · played 36.9 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · points 15.5 → 14 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.7 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 31.5 → 31 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

OKC vs DEN · last 33 games · DEN leads · OKC record 16–17 · average score 111.9–111.1 · OKC has won by 0.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Oct · DEN 84 at OKC 96OKC won

10 Apr · OKC 107 at DEN 127OKC lost

What each defense gives up per game

DEN gives up112.8 points · 44.7 rebounds · 28.7 assists · 34.9% from three-point range

OKC gives up105.9 points · 44.7 rebounds · 24.6 assists · 33.1% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DEN gives up 112.8 points a game · 14th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

OKC gives up 105.9 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.4 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 72 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 76 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 127 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-08)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 138 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-12)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-11)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-10)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-09)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-07)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-06)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-04)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-05)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 165 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 165 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 167 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 175 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 104 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 13 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 108 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 276 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 540 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2507 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 191 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 193 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 275 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 378 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 587 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 648 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.