NBA · May 15 gameAll props Full sheet

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets

FinalOKC 107 – DEN 119Page updated 07:57 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 7 availability alerts

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 8 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 29.5 → 32 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

points 4.5 → 10 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

points 14.5 → 19 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

points 20.5 → 6 actual

Jaylin Williams · Out · low back spasms (back) · listed out, then played

points 2.5 → 8 actual

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 5 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 23 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 25 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

points 29.5 → 29 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

OKC expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 218 points · odds to win: OKC 1.50, DEN 2.78

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 00:35 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 07:57 UTC

Who is out

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 247 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 8 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Jaylin Williams · points 2.5 → 8 · 5.5 above the line · played 14.5 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 4.5 → 10 · 5.5 above the line · played 26.8 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 12.5 → 23 · 10.5 above the line · played 39.3 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · points 20.5 → 6 · 14.5 below the line · played 37.8 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · points 16.5 → 5 · 11.5 below the line · played 38.2 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 30.1 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · points 19.5 → 25 · 5.5 above the line · played 42.3 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 25.1 min · no final price

Alex Caruso · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.3 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 29.5 → 32 · 2.5 above the line · played 35 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · points 29.5 → 29 · 0.5 below the line · played 40.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DEN vs OKC · last 33 games · DEN leads · DEN record 17–16 · average score 111.1–111.9 · DEN has lost by 0.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Oct · DEN 84 at OKC 96DEN lost

10 Apr · OKC 107 at DEN 127DEN won

9 Mar · DEN 126 at OKC 129DEN lost

27 Feb · DEN 121 at OKC 127DEN lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up104.2 points · 44.8 rebounds · 24.4 assists · 32.6% from three-point range

DEN gives up113.1 points · 43.9 rebounds · 28.6 assists · 34.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

OKC gives up 104.2 points a game · 2nd of 30 · league average 113.4−9.2 vs average

DEN gives up 113.1 points a game · 14th of 30 · league average 113.4about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/date (2025-05-08)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 34 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-14)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-10)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-13)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-12)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-09)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-06)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-07)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-11)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 58 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 60 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 108 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 123 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-04)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-05)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 134 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 141 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 149 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 211 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 283 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 157 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 159 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 158 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 167 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 567 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.