NBA · Apr 9 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

FinalMIA 114 – TOR 128Page updated 13:10 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes3 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 2 actual

Toronto Raptors

Collin Murray-Boyles · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 26 actual

Jakob Poeltl · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 1 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

TOR expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 236.5 points · odds to win: MIA 2.40, TOR 1.61

Game odds from 10 bookmakers · observed Thu 22:44 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 13:10 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 44 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 0 of 1 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

3 other players with a posted line

Pelle Larsson · 3-pointers 0.5 → 2 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.3 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.59, Under 2.29

Collin Murray-Boyles · points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 26 · 10.5 above the line · played 22.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Jakob Poeltl · assists 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.67, Under 2.15

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

TOR vs MIA · last 26 games · TOR leads · TOR record 13–13 · average score 108.2–106.8 · TOR has won by 1.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Apr · MIA 114 at TOR 128TOR won

7 Apr · MIA 95 at TOR 121TOR won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Caesars first had TOR expected to win by 4, expected total 236 (Thu 01:51 UTC) and later TOR expected to win by 3.5, expected total 236 (Thu 22:44 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 28

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 26 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 149 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 151 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 156 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 156 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 186 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 192 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 205 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 213 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 114 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 564 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 788 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1453 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 99 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 129 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 481 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 485 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 607 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.