NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 4 · MIN leads 2–1updated 12:29 UTC

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

at Minnesota Timberwolves

DEN expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 229.5 points · odds to win: DEN 1.82, MIN 2.04

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Sat 00:38 UTC

DEN 96 – MIN 112

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DEN = Denver Nuggets, MIN = Minnesota Timberwolves.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Denver Nuggetsplaying MIN

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Cameron Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 8 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 5 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

assists 9.5 → 9 actual

Minnesota Timberwolvesplaying DEN

Anthony Edwards · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 0 actual

Ayo Dosunmu · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 1 actual

Bones Hyland · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 8.5 → 16 actual

Donte DiVincenzo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 1 actual

Jaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Rudy Gobert · minutes unknown

rebounds 11.5 → 15 actual

What could go wrong

updated 12:29 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 326 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Anthony Edwards · assists 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 17.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Jaden McDaniels · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 33 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56

Bones Hyland · points + rebounds + assists 8.5 → 16 · 7.5 above the line · played 19.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Ayo Dosunmu · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 42 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Donte DiVincenzo · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 1.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80

Cameron Johnson · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Aaron Gordon · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.2 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.26, Under 1.62

Christian Braun · points 11.5 → 8 · 3.5 below the line · played 33.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Rudy Gobert · rebounds 11.5 → 15 · 3.5 above the line · played 35.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.50, Under 1.50

Jamal Murray · assists 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 42 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.85, Under 1.40

Nikola Jokić · assists 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 40.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs DEN · last 45 games · DEN leads · MIN record 21–24 · average score 112.2–111.1 · MIN has won by 1.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Apr · DEN 98 at MIN 110MIN won

27 Apr · MIN 113 at DEN 125MIN lost

25 Apr · DEN 96 at MIN 112MIN won

23 Apr · DEN 96 at MIN 113MIN won

20 Apr · MIN 119 at DEN 114MIN won

18 Apr · MIN 105 at DEN 116MIN lost

1 Mar · MIN 117 at DEN 108MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Fanatics first had DEN expected to win by 2, expected total 229.5 (Fri 05:34 UTC) and later DEN expected to win by 1, expected total 229.5 (Sat 00:38 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-11)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 36 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 38 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 40 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 42 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 123 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 126 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 143 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 143 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 144 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 144 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 182 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 517 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 540 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 551 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 609 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 617 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 992 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 864 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 865 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 865 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1025 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 914 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 916 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 917 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 921 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1013 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1014 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1029 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1030 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.