WNBA · Jul 31 gameAll props Full sheet

Indiana Fever at Portland Fire

FinalIND 112 – POR 98Page updated 02:43 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 5 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

5Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available

1 player has a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Clark, Mitchell, Buhner, Samuelson have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 9 of 22 estimates.

Billings: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 12.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Caitlin ClarkUnder 8.5 assists

LostActual 10

Posted odds2.14Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Caitlin’s assists

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.14. Last price before tip: 2.14.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Pinnacle on this line: 2.14 · quote observed Fri 19:41 UTC.

First recorded: 2.14 at Pinnacle, Fri 19:41 UTC. Latest included: 1.70 at Pinnacle, Sat 01:43 UTC. The line changed from 8.5 to 9.5.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Bridget CarletonOver 3.5 rebounds

LostActual 3

Posted odds2.12

Kelsey MitchellOver 23.5 points

WonActual 26

Posted odds2.10

Aliyah BostonUnder 8.5 rebounds

LostActual 9

Posted odds1.72

Emily EngstlerOver 4.5 rebounds

LostActual 2

Posted odds1.71

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available · Mon 23:30 UTC · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes23 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Indiana Fever

Caitlin Clark · 31 min expected

assists 8.5 → 10 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · 31 min expected

points 23.5 → 26 actual

Aliyah Boston · 29 min expected

rebounds 8.5 → 9 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 21 min expected

points 9.5 → 13 actual

Monique Billings · 19 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

7 more players · no line in this feed

Lexie Hull20 min · source estimate

Makayla Timpson18 min · source estimate

Myisha Hines-Allen15 min · source estimate

Tyasha Harris10 min · source estimate

Raven Johnson4 min · source estimate

Grace VanSlooten2 min · source estimate

Bree HallOut · Coach's Decision

Portland Fire

Bridget Carleton · 30 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Carla Leite · 26 min expected

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Megan DiLeo · 25 min expected

points 13.5 → 5 actual

Emily Engstler · 21 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 2 actual

7 more players · no line in this feed

Nyadiew Puoch21 min · source estimate

Frieda Buhner18 min · source estimate

Karlie Samuelson18 min · source estimate

Luisa Geiselsoder14 min · source estimate

Serah Williams11 min · source estimate

Teja Oblak10 min · source estimate

Holly Winterburn6 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

IND expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 187.5 points · odds to win: IND 1.31, POR 3.63

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 19:41 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 02:43 UTC

Who is out

Harrison · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 16, 23 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Geiselsoder · did not play last game

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 23:30 UTC) · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Barker · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 4, 30 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Dantas · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 8, 2 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Hines-Allen · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 20, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

Billings: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 12.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 11 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 9 of the 127 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Geiselsoder out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out (Mon 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Barker out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dantas out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hines-Allen out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 5 picks won1 won, 4 lost · −2.90 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.2% higher than the last before the start · 10 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Emily Engstler · rebounds 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 28 min (21 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.71 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Caitlin Clark · assists 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (31 expected)

Pick: Under 8.5 at 2.14 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Bridget Carleton · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.5 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 3.5 at 2.12 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Kelsey Mitchell · points 23.5 → 26 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.7 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 23.5 at 2.10 → Won +1.10 per 1 staked

Aliyah Boston · rebounds 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (29 expected)

Pick: Under 8.5 at 1.72 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

4 other players with a posted line

Megan DiLeo · points 13.5 → 5 · 8.5 below the line · played 25.4 min (25 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 30.7 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Sophie Cunningham · points 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.9 min (21 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Monique Billings · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.3 min (19 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

POR vs IND · last 3 games · IND leads · POR record 1–2 · average score 90.3–95.3 · POR has lost by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Jul · IND 112 at POR 98POR lost

30 May · IND 84 at POR 100POR won

20 May · POR 73 at IND 90POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 8, expected total 188 (Fri 03:08 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 8, expected total 187.5 (Fri 19:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 8

Kelsey Mitchell · O 23.5 points+110value_edge_pct +2.62 · kelly 0.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Kelsey Mitchell · O 22.5 points−106value_edge_pct −0.97 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Bridget Carleton · O 3.5 rebounds+112value_edge_pct −1.08 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Caitlin Clark · U 8.5 assists+114value_edge_pct −1.42 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Emily Engstler · O 4.5 rebounds−141value_edge_pct −2.71 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Caitlin Clark · U 9.5 assists−141value_edge_pct −3.41 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Aliyah Boston · U 8.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −3.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Kelsey Mitchell · O 21.5 points−122value_edge_pct −4.84 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 10

Emily Engstler Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −141 → close −155 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:193207 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 28.0 min · startedEngstler's rebounding dried up despite 28 minutes played, grabbing only 2 boards—well short of the 4.5 line—as her offensive usage (14%) kept her in a playmaking role rather than crashing the glass. A minus-15 rating suggests the team was outmatched in rebounding margin, limiting her opportunities on the glass.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 PTSWIN +1.10ubet +110 → close −104 · CLV +3.4¢ · bet_clv:193206 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · actual 26 · 35.7 min · startedMitchell's efficient 9-21 shooting night (43% FG) and perfect 4-4 free-throw mark pushed her to 26 points despite a modest 4-12 three-point performance, clearing the 23.5 line with floor time and usage well-established at 36 minutes and 29% usage.

Bridget Carleton Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +112 → close +106 · CLV +1.4¢ · bet_clv:193203 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 33.5 min · startedCarleton came one rebound short despite playing 34 minutes and shooting efficiently (9-14 FG), as the game's pace and her 20% usage rate limited her opportunities on the glass in a low-possession contest. She picked up 3 fouls without fouling out, which may have caused her to play more cautiously defensively in the second half.

Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −170 → close −180 · CLV +1.3¢ · bet_clv:193212 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 10 · 33.8 min · startedClark's aggressive offensive approach—26 points on 79% TS and 34 minutes—naturally created more rebounding opportunities, and she crashed the glass hard enough to pull down 10 boards, more than double the under threshold. Her elite efficiency and high volume usage meant she stayed on the floor and in the action for extended stretches, driving the rebounding output well past expectations.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 22.5 PTSWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −111 · CLV +1.2¢ · bet_clv:193204 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 26 · 35.7 min · startedMitchell's 26 points cleared the 22.5 line on the strength of 36 minutes played and a 29% usage rate, converting 9-of-21 shots with perfect 4-for-4 free-throw shooting to overcome a cold 4-12 three-point night. Her elevated minutes and offensive workload in what was likely a competitive game proved sufficient to push past the threshold despite sub-par perimeter efficiency.

Caitlin Clark Under 8.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +114 → close +114 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:193210 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.1% · unexplained · actual 10 · 33.8 min · startedClark's elite efficiency (79% TS, 14-17 FT) and high volume (34 min, 25% usage) created numerous scoring opportunities that also opened passing lanes, allowing her to reach double-digit assists despite moderate turnover rate (4 TO). The +23 rating reflected her dominance in a blowout, where she had more freedom to distribute without defensive pressure.

Aliyah Boston Under 8.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −138 → close −133 · CLV −0.9¢ · bet_clv:193209 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.7% · bad_price · actual 9 · 30.1 min · startedBoston grabbed one more board than the line anticipated, finishing with 9 rebounds across 30 minutes of play—her consistent interior presence and 6 assists suggesting strong overall involvement despite modest 20% usage.

Aliyah Boston Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −157 → close −168 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:193208 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 30.1 min · startedBoston nearly doubled the assist line, recording 6 dimes while playing heavy minutes (30) in a game that likely featured elevated ball movement and pace; her 20% usage rate and 5-rebound night suggest she operated more as a facilitator than a high-volume scorer.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 21.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −148 · CLV +4.7¢ · bet_clv:193205 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.3% · actual 26 · 35.7 min · startedMitchell's efficient 9-21 shooting night (43% FG) and 36 minutes of heavy usage (29%) pushed her over the 21.5 line, as she converted all four free throws and stayed out of foul trouble with just one personal foul.

Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −141 → close −154 · CLV +2.1¢ · bet_clv:193211 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 10 · 33.8 min · startedClark exceeded the assist line by a single dime, converting 10 of her 34 minutes into playmaking opportunities despite modest 25% usage—just enough volume to edge over 9.5 in a blowout win (+23) where she didn't need to shoulder heavy scoring load. Her efficient 79% true shooting and balanced 26 points-10 rebounds-10 assists line shows she operated as a facilitator rather than a volume scorer, keeping her in range to clear the assist total.

Data fetches · 44

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 13 ms

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grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 15 ms

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sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 25 ms

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sds history (h2h)ok · 27 ms

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sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

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odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 668 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 635 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 637 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 858 ms

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