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LAS @ MIN — WNBA Picks & H2H — NightlyPicks

WNBA · FINAL · THU, AUG 6, 9:00 PM

LAS @ MIN

Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx

← All WNBA games on 2026-08-06

-17

Spread (home)

187

Total

+750 / -1400

Moneyline

Snapshot market context · game-quote observation time and source book unavailable · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:17 AM EDT

GAME BRIEF · START HERE

Start with what happened, then judge the process.

Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx is a completed-game review. Any call below is record-only.

REVIEW

01 · PROP DECISIONS

What the evidence says

7 of 7 prop cards have eligible recent or player-opponent history. Each card explains whether that context supports, opposes, or is too thin.

02 · AVAILABILITY

What could break it

4 hard availability flags returned (Alissa Pili, Tonie Morgan, Chloe Bibby, …). Player-level observation times are unavailable, so verify the source report.

03 · MARKET MOVEMENT

What changed

35 unusual market lines: 14 above and 21 below players' typical closes. 8 signals withheld by availability or data-quality checks. Market movement is context, not an Over/Under pick.

MODEL UPDATES

The simple read.

What the model estimated, what changed, what was recorded alongside it, and whether an official bet exists.

HISTORICAL

PlayerStat

ViewingLAST CAPTURED FORECAST · FINAL STATUS UNVERIFIEDCheckpoint history · roster completeness not verified

PLAIN-ENGLISH READ

Five things to know

R3 OF 3

01 · WHAT WE THINKLast saved pretip estimate: Rae Burrell at about 3.2 assists with 31.4 projected minutes.

The model expected Rae Burrell as a recorded starter whose source timing is not fully verified and with availability not yet confirmed. This is an estimate, not a promised result. The saved minutes range is 28.8–33.9. Some forecast inputs remain uncertain.

02 · WHAT CHANGEDRae Burrell's assists estimate stayed the same.

The selected player's expected minutes, lineup state, availability, and estimate stayed the same.

03 · WHAT WE OBSERVEDNo player-level reason was recorded.

The page will not invent a cause that is not in the saved revision.

04 · BET STATUSHistorical record only — no current bet.

The record is retained for audit and grading, not as a live recommendation.

05 · WHAT TO WATCH NEXTOfficial player result check is unavailable.

A separate official betting record may already be settled, but that does not score this forecast. No finalized player result is connected after the correction window, so forecast accuracy is withheld.

DECISION TIMELINE · IMMUTABLE RESEARCH REVISIONS

See how the read moved.

Follow each frozen checkpoint, inspect what the system knew, and compare any two revisions. Connectors report observed differences—not invented causality.

Full reasoning · always visible

PlayerStat

3 frozen revisionsMarket-selected players · full roster not attested

→

No selected-field movementObserved difference only

→

No selected-field movementObserved difference only

OFFICIAL FORMULA LANErecord_only · OVER 2.5-111 · not_applicable

The stored formula record is shown beside the research history, not as an output caused by it.

SELECTED REVISION · R3 · T−15M

Rae Burrell · Assists

8:35 PM EDT

01 · EVIDENCEUNKNOWNprimary role · 0 absence context rows

→OBSERVED ORDER

02 · LINEUPUNATTESTED_CONFIRMEDrecorded starter

→SAME PLAYER STATE

03 · MINUTES INPUT31.4 MIN28.8–33.9 · recent-games

→PARTIALLY ATTESTED

04 · STAT FORECAST3.2 ASSISTSP10 1.0 · P50 3.0 · P90 6.0

→FORECAST FROZEN FIRST

05 · MARKETNO MARKETforecast remains market-free at this checkpoint

→COMPARISON ONLY

06 · OUTPUTFORECAST ONLYresearch comparison · not a betting call

Applied numerically

No additional numeric contribution is attested beyond the recorded forecast inputs.

Context only / not causally linked

matchupOpponent team-defense context: suppression index threes +0.69, scoring +0.67, rebounds +0.45; allows 83.3 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast.
matchupHistorical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.

Warnings & assumptions

Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because confirmed lineup source_observed_at is missing.
Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible.
Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown.
sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600231: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1630996/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1630996: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
projections-engine minutes/wnba/2026-08-06/1022600231: network
WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred.
Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.
Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes.
Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws.
No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.

COMPARE REVISIONS

What changed between two frozen reads?

A · Earlier→B · Later

FieldA · EarlierChangeB · Later

ProvenanceSnapshot

ds_12b8657d3c20aba9fea53996changedds_05a89a58dcbef41800fc3d3b

ProvenanceDecision clock

2:50 PM EDTchanged8:35 PM EDT

25 unchanged fields

Lineup & availabilityCapture status

captured—captured

Lineup & availabilityLineup

unattested_confirmed—unattested_confirmed

Lineup & availabilityStarter

starter—starter

Lineup & availabilityAvailability

unknown—unknown

Lineup & availabilityRole

primary—primary

Lineup & availabilityRole-change magnitude

none—none

Lineup & availabilityTeammate absences

none recorded—none recorded

Lineup & availabilityRole-change reasons

none recorded—none recorded

MinutesExpected minutes

31.4—31.4

MinutesRange

28.8–33.9—28.8–33.9

MinutesSource

recent-games—recent-games

OpportunityCaptured opportunity

field goal attempts 10.8 · free throw attempts 3.4 · three point attempts 4.1—field goal attempts 10.8 · free throw attempts 3.4 · three point attempts 4.1

ForecastAssists mean

3.2—3.2

ForecastInput lineage

partially attested—partially attested

ForecastAssumptions

Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes. · Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws. · No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.—Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes. · Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws. · No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.

ForecastWarnings

Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because confirmed lineup source_observed_at is missing. · Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible. · Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown. · sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600231: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1630996/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1630996: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · projections-engine minutes/wnba/2026-08-06/1022600231: network · WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred. · Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.—Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because confirmed lineup source_observed_at is missing. · Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible. · Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown. · sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600231: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1630996/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1630996: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · projections-engine minutes/wnba/2026-08-06/1022600231: network · WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred. · Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.

ContextDrivers

matchup: neutral · Opponent team-defense context: suppression index threes +0.69, scoring +0.67, rebounds +0.45; allows 83.3 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast. · matchup: unknown · Historical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.—matchup: neutral · Opponent team-defense context: suppression index threes +0.69, scoring +0.67, rebounds +0.45; allows 83.3 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast. · matchup: unknown · Historical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.

ForecastP10 / P50 / P90

1.0 / 3.0 / 6.0—1.0 / 3.0 / 6.0

MarketOffer

NO MARKET CAPTURE—NO MARKET CAPTURE

MarketLean

———

MarketApplied market reasoning

———

MarketContext-only market reasoning

———

MarketP(over) / P(under)

———

ProvenanceRevision triggers

checkpoint capture—checkpoint capture

ProvenanceModel artifact

f3319519…267e—f3319519…267e

DECISION TIMELINE · REVISION FLOW

Loading frozen research checkpoints…

HISTORICAL FORMULA FEED · AUDIT ONLY

Results & Recorded Calls · 7 qualified

Start with the verified result and flat-1u CORE benchmark P&L. Then compare the recorded call with the evidence that can be reconstructed without using this game's outcome.

FINAL RESULT · CORE BENCHMARK

LOSS

Actual: 2 vs 2.5
Flat-1u P&L: −1.00u
CLV: +3.5¢
Minutes: 27.6

Postgame context: Burrell's 2 assists fell one short of the over, despite solid scoring (17 pts on 67% TS); her 23% usage rate limited playmaking opportunities and she recorded just 1 turnover, indicating a shoot-first role rather than ball-handling duties.

SERVER RECORD · CORE FORMULA · ASSISTS

Rae Burrell O 2.5 AST −111

Persisted decision price · 0.0u model stake · bet_clv:249933

RECORD ONLY

Current meaning: This is a settled, record-only decision. It is historical evidence, not a current wager.

PROP BRIEF · START HERE

Review the recorded result—not a current play.

What the evidence saysContext pushes against the OVER

Recent games · Last 5 no sample; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent pushes back. Treat the disagreement as a reason to demand a better price or pass.

Main riskWhat could break the read

Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.

Next stepReview the process

Compare the result, minutes, closing line, and receipt limits below.

Verified receipt & source timing

Canonical decision receipt · Receipt bet_clv:249933 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0 · capture bucket Aug 5, 8:00 PM EDT (not decision time) · decision time unavailable · point-in-time unverified

WHY IT WAS SURFACED · FEED PRICE

53.1% model chance vs 52.6% needed at −111 · +0.5pp probability edge · +0.9% expected profit / 1u

Model stake0.0u

PREGAME CHECKS · AUDIT

What the receipt can—and cannot—prove

DECISION LAB · MODEL RECORD + YOUR READ

Challenge what the system knew.

The original records stay frozen. Your thesis is checked against the captured evidence, then any explicit numerical assumption is tested separately—never silently fed into CORE or Gameplay.

HISTORICAL

SELECTED PROP

Rae Burrell

OVER 2.5 · Assists

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREThe exact CORE record has no matching immutable Gameplay player capture to compare.

RECORDED CORE LANE

What the formula record actually says

DECISION RECEIPT

FORMULA FEATURE INPUTSNOT STORED IN THIS RECEIPTThe receipt preserves pricing outputs and the action—not the lineup, minutes, usage, or matchup contribution path.

Stored pricing outputs

CAPTURED PRICE-111book not stored · time not stored

CALIBRATED SIDE53.1%break-even 52.6% · EV +0.9%

STORED ACTIONrecord onlyOVER 2.5 · stake 0.00u

Formula: priced_lineedges
Version: v1.0.0
Decision time: time not stored
Input status: unverified
Point-in-time: unverified
Receipt quality: partial

Receipt integrity flagssource sportsbook unavailable · quote observed at unavailable · decision at unavailable · capture receipt unavailable

game settled

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREEvidence beside the call is not automatically evidence inside the call.

IMMUTABLE GAMEPLAY CAPTURE

What the research system captured

CAPTURE BUILDING

Gameplay evidence is capture building.

The CORE row remains visible, but there is no immutable research projection from which to build a numeric human scenario.

REPLAY LAB · HINDSIGHT CHALLENGE

Tell us what the model may have missed

Write your basketball thesis normally. We'll turn it into checkable claims, compare each one with the frozen Gameplay capture, and show whether a quantified counterfactual changes the make.

UNSAVED REPLAY

HINDSIGHT MODEYou can test assumptions, but this page cannot save or alter a pregame read after the authoritative tip time. Browser timestamps are a convenience, not independent proof of publication.

PRIMARY WORKFLOW

Challenge the call

FROZEN CAPTURE · DETERMINISTIC CHECK

What is your basketball read?

Your prose supplies hypotheses, never evidence. This check only recognizes explicit starter, minutes, availability, usage, matchup, pace, and rotation claims.

CORE RECORDOVER 2.553.1% side probability

GAMEPLAY MAKE—— model minutes

GAMEPLAY LEANNO SAME-LINE CAPTUREno capture at 2.5

MY MAKE—scenario unavailable

Advanced manual scenarioDirectly edit minutes, opportunity, matchup, and pace

ISOLATED-PLAYER SENSITIVITYMoving one player's minutes here does not conserve the team's 200 regulation minutes. Name whose minutes or role you think changes so the assumption stays basketball-real.

Starting-role beliefRecorded label: unknown. This label does not secretly add minutes.Expected minutes —Model: — · regulation maximum 40Opportunity / usage change +0%Use for role, touches, shot volume, rebound chances, or potential assists.Matchup adjustment +0.0Direct assists added to or removed from the make.Pace / game-script adjustment +0.0Direct assists added to or removed from the make for pace, blowout, overtime tail, or foul-risk beliefs.

My decision

Confidence in my readLineup / availability beliefWhose minutes / role moves?This note is required for a rotation-aware interpretation; the calculator itself remains player-only.

TRANSPARENT SCENARIO MATH

Gameplay baseline—
After your minutes—
After opportunity—
After matchup + pace—

WHAT FLIPS THE LINE?Unavailable

Under your current opportunity, matchup, and pace assumptions, this is the minutes threshold where the personal make equals 2.5.

A numeric personal make needs both a stored Gameplay projection and model minutes. You can still record a stance and thesis.

How this personal make is calculated

Gameplay mean × (your minutes ÷ model minutes) × (1 + your opportunity change) + your matchup adjustment + your pace/game-script adjustment. It is a sensitivity tool, not a retrained probability, and it does not claim the CORE formula uses these inputs.

DECISION LAB

Loading the immutable evidence map…

AVAILABILITY SNAPSHOT · AUDIT CONTEXT

Availability & Injuries

4 hard availability snapshot flags appear. Player-level observation time is unavailable, so this does not prove the status existed before tip; formula rows remain record-only.

LASAlissa Pili · Coach'sDecision-Coach'sDecisionOUT

LASTonie Morgan · Coach'sDecision-Coach'sDecisionOUT

MINChloe Bibby · PersonalReasonsOUT

MINLiatu King · Coach'sDecisionOUT

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

BUILDING

The first frozen read has not posted for this game yet. We publish a checkpointed snapshot before tip instead of inventing a live answer from incomplete inputs.

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

Checking the latest captured lineup, rotation, matchup and market state…

MARKET CONTEXT · NOT A PICK · THIS GAME · T−1H

Prop Watchlist

A shortlist of unusual market lines. Compare this game's checkpoint with a player's typical close, then see whether recent results against their own lines agree. Only the Formula-Qualified Recommendations section contains CORE candidate wagers.

Showing 2 of 34 all props market observations

46props checked

2top observations shown now

0Out / Doubtful / Inactive watches hidden

T−1Hlatest locked check

How these market observations are calculated

Typical market close is the median closing line across all earlier verified games this season—not a scoring average or a fixed 30-game window. Recent results use up to five actual-backed games that were final at least six hours before this checkpoint, so a just-finished game may be intentionally excluded. These are descriptive observations, not win probabilities or automatic picks.

Market expectation up

Upward descriptive pattern—not an Over pick

Expectation upAST · market observation—not a pick

Natasha Howard

MIN · PF · vs LAS

3.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 2.5
Market vs typical: +1.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: +1.5
Checkpoint move: +1.0

Market + recent results align

This game's AST line is 3.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 2.5 across 22 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 1.5 above their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 2 · 5.0 actual vs 2.5 line (+2.5)

Possible context: Liatu King — Out (reported Aug 6, 8:00 PM EDT); Chloe Bibby — Out (reported Aug 5, 6:00 PM EDT). Timestamped association only; not proof it caused the move.

Market expectation down

Downward descriptive pattern—not an Under pick

Expectation downPTS · market observation—not a pick

Natasha Howard

MIN · PF · vs LAS

12.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 15.5
Market vs typical: −3.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: −1.5
Checkpoint move: 0.0

Market + recent results align

This game's PTS line is 12.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 15.5 across 27 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 1.5 below their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 2 · 13.0 actual vs 12.5 line (+0.5)

Possible context: Liatu King — Out (reported Aug 6, 8:00 PM EDT); Chloe Bibby — Out (reported Aug 5, 6:00 PM EDT). Timestamped association only; not proof it caused the move.

Showing the clearest market observations for available players—not additional bets.Open the season tape →

The Read

Minnesota enters as a heavy favorite (-15.5) against Las Vegas, with a commanding defensive profile (101.59 rating, 3rd in league) that projects to dominate a Sparks offense struggling with turnovers (15.5% rate) and inconsistent perimeter execution. The Lynx's elite interior defense (14.07 PPG allowed to centers) will prove decisive, though their weak perimeter coverage (5.03 3PM allowed to guards, 13th) presents a narrow runway for Las Vegas guard play. The matchup fundamentally hinges on pace control and shot selection: Minnesota's moderate tempo (82.05 possessions/game) combined with Las Vegas's similarly slow pace (84.99) projects to an 83-86 possession envelope, keeping the total in the 185-190 range and limiting both teams' volume. Chloe Bibby's absence for Minnesota and Ariel Atkins' status for Las Vegas introduce lineup uncertainty, but the underlying efficiency gap (MIN +11.4 net rating vs LAS -5.6) is decisive. Las Vegas must lean on Erica Wheeler's backcourt creation and forward scoring depth (Hamby, Ogwumike) to stay competitive, but against Minnesota's elite team defense (20.26 assists allowed per game, 9th-most), the Sparks face structural challenges converting possessions into points. The game's narrative is MIN's defensive strangulation limiting Las Vegas to 80-85 points in a controlled-tempo affair, with MIN's 113.0 offensive rating operating freely against Las Vegas's 111.01 defensive rating.

SUPPORTING RESEARCH · NOT A BETTING RECOMMENDATION

Matchup Outlook

MIN

Projected winner

-15.5

Model spread

U 188.5

Model total

60%

Outlook confidence · MODERATE

Team Series History

MIN vs LAS · last 18 meetings · MIN leads

Team results are game-environment context—not validation for an individual player prop. Player-specific opponent history lives inside each recommendation card.

15–3

MIN record

83.4–76

Avg score (home)

+7.4

Avg margin

32.2

Avg reb

RECENT MEETINGS

08/06LAS 89 @ MIN 82LMIN

07/15LAS 87 @ MIN 96WMIN

06/17MIN 99 @ LAS 83WMIN

See game-by-game evidenceL3 / L5 / L10 · opponent games · comparable players

L3: —
L5: —
L10: —

Player vs opponentFinished above 2.5 in 1/5 prior player meetings vs MIN

Position/team matchupNo stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Reconstructed from a snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:17 AM EDT. The target game and all same/future dates are excluded. L3 is contained inside L5, which is contained inside L10; they are one sample, not three confirmations.

DEFENSE CHECK · EACH PLAYER'S OWN CLOSE

How comparable wings fared vs MIN

Descriptive · not another model vote

3/5 belowClosest 5 peers · median finish 0.5 below market

All Assists props vs MIN: 46/91 above
Same position family: 7/12 below

These are market-relative results, not raw points allowed: every peer is judged against the line offered for that peer's own game. The 5 shown are selected by position family and usual line; the opponent result is not used to rank them.

See the 5 comparable players

One latest eligible meeting per peer, strictly before Aug 6. “Usual” is that player's trailing median closing line, not the result against MIN.
Player	Why comparable	Date	Own close	Actual	Finish	Minutes
Gabby Williams SF	usual 2.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 22.8 min	Jun 19	2.5	1.0	1.5 below market	28.1
Kahleah Copper SF	usual 2.0 over 10 games · Δ 0.5 · 34.0 min	Jul 13	1.5	1.0	0.5 below market	32.2
Bridget Carleton F	usual 2.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 31.0 min	Jul 18	2.5	4.0	1.5 above market	32.4
Emily Engstler F	usual 2.5 over 7 games · Δ 0.0 · 23.1 min	Jul 18	2.5	3.0	0.5 above market	28.7
Sonia Citron SF	usual 3.5 over 10 games · Δ 1.0 · 32.0 min	Jun 24	3.5	3.0	0.5 below market	34.4

Open evidence game log

HISTORICAL MARKET CHECK

Against each game's own verified close

Normal exposure only

Checking verified pre-tip closing lines…

Player history vs MIN

Latest 5 of 9 eligible meetings · finished above 2.5 in 1/5 · average 1.4. Context only; roles and schemes change.

Date	Actual	Minutes	OVER 2.5
Jul 15	2.0	33.1	Miss
Jun 17	3.0	26.4	Hit
Jul 10	0.0	9.3	Miss
Sep 19	1.0	25.7	Miss
Jul 9	1.0	21.3	Miss

See methodology & source audit6 pillars · 49 checks

The six items are pillars, not six yes/no questions. Each check below is evidence—not a gamified score. One hard failure can outweigh many verified inputs.

1 · Price & market value

Caution

What exact side, line, odds, and book are offered?

Rae Burrell OVER 2.5 −111 · sportsbook unavailable

Source · canonical grading decision receipt

Caution

When was the formula price captured?

Capture bucket Aug 5, 8:00 PM EDT (storage bucket, not decision time) · decision time unavailable · quote observation unavailable

Source · bet_clv:249933

Verified

What hit rate does the price require?

52.6%

Source · derived from formula-feed American odds

Verified

What is the calibrated probability at this line?

53.1%

Source · canonical decision model.calibrated_hit_probability

Verified

What is the probability-point edge?

+0.5pp

Source · p_hit minus formula-price break-even

Verified

What is expected profit per unit?

+0.9%

Source · canonical decision model.claimed_ev_pct (when persisted)

N/A

Does the exact line appear in the connected snapshot?

Mutable latest-market rows are intentionally excluded from historical pre-tip proof

Unavailable

What price or line turns this into a pass?

Server-authoritative playable boundaries are not published yet

N/A

Does the broader market agree?

Mutable latest-market rows are not used to reconstruct historical consensus

Unavailable

Is the market liquid enough?

Limits and liquidity are not connected

2 · Projection quality & uncertainty

Unavailable

What is the projected median?

Unavailable

What does the outcome distribution look like?

Distribution unavailable

Unavailable

How sensitive is the pick to minutes, usage, or pace?

Sensitivity model unavailable

Caution

What do L3, L5, and L10 show at this exact line?

L3 unavailable · L5 unavailable · L10 unavailable at the formula OVER 2.5 line

Source · reconstructed hydrator game history; target/same/future dates excluded

Caution

Is the model calibrated for this league, prop, and bucket?

The pick carries calibrated p_hit; bucket-level proof is not exposed here

Unavailable

Was calibration measured out of sample?

Out-of-sample calibration evidence is not exposed per pick

Unavailable

How large is the comparable historical sample?

No eligible reconstructed L10 sample

Unavailable

When did the model run and were inputs complete?

Research run timestamp unavailable

Source · Gameplay Intelligence

3 · Availability & role

Unavailable

Is the player active, questionable, limited, or returning?

No hard game-report flag; individual status is not fully resolved

Source · player-state service

Caution

When was status last verified?

Snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:17 AM EDT; injury-source observation time is not mapped

Source · data-hydrator snapshot assembly

Unavailable

What is the expected minutes range?

Minutes projection unavailable

Unavailable

Is the player starting or restricted?

Starter and restriction status unavailable

Unavailable

Has opportunity changed?

Opportunity feed unavailable

Unavailable

Which teammate absences change the role?

No confirmed teammate-absence attribution returned

Unavailable

Were injury-shortened games identified?

The joined outcome does not include a verified abnormal-exposure flag

Unavailable

What rotation change could invalidate the projection?

No material role change returned

4 · Game environment & matchup

Unavailable

How many possessions are expected?

A game-level pace projection is not exposed on this card

Caution

What do spread and total imply?

Spread (home) -17 · Total 187 · Moneyline +750 / -1400 · archive context only; not an immutable pre-tip market receipt · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:17 AM EDT

Source · data-hydrator assembled game-market snapshot

Unavailable

Does opponent scheme affect this stat?

No stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Caution

What has this player done against this opponent?

Finished above 2.5 in 1/5 prior player meetings vs MIN

Source · reconstructed player-vs-team game history; target date excluded

Unavailable

Which defender or lineup matters?

Defender attribution is not exposed

Unavailable

Is rest, travel, or schedule a disadvantage?

Rest and travel context are not connected

Caution

What foul, blowout, or game-script path creates downside?

Spread is visible; player-level foul and game-script risk are not quantified

5 · Execution & portfolio risk

N/A

Is the number still inside its playable boundary?

Not applicable after tip; mutable current offers are excluded from historical execution proof

Verified

How was stake size derived?

0.0u model-sized stake

Source · canonical decision model.kelly_stake_units

Unavailable

How much correlated exposure already exists?

Player, game, and injury-thesis exposure are not connected

Unavailable

Are exposure limits respected?

Daily, league, player, and prop limits are not exposed

Caution

What event withdraws or expires the pick?

Game start and hard availability conflicts are enforced; price boundaries remain a backend gap

Caution

Is this pregame, live, or halftime analysis?

Schedule status: final · formula-feed archive context

Caution

Is there a no-chase rule?

The UI expires the card after tip and requires exact-line verification; explicit price-bound enforcement is pending

6 · Outcome evidence & accountability

Verified

Did the pick beat the comparable close?

+3.5¢ closing-line value (price CLV)

Source · joined grading settlement

Verified

Was the formula line stored immutably?

OVER 2.5 · decision key pd_4c0dd6f0b21604333f540392 · receipt bet_clv:249933 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0

Source · prop-decision-envelope.v1

Verified

Was a miss variance, injury, foul trouble, or blowout?

Burrell's 2 assists fell one short of the over, despite solid scoring (17 pts on 67% TS); her 23% usage rate limited playmaking opportunities and she recorded just 1 turnover, indicating a shoot-first role rather than ball-handling duties.

Source · joined outcome receipt

Verified

What are flat-1u and actual-staked ROI?

This pick's flat-1u CORE result is −1.00u. Personal staking remains separate.

Source · joined grading ledger

Unavailable

What are sample size and uncertainty interval?

Per-cohort confidence interval is not exposed on the card

Unavailable

Are probabilities calibrated by Brier or log loss?

Per-cohort calibration metrics are not exposed

Unavailable

Where is performance weakening?

League/prop/price/book/time-to-tip drift is not joined here

Unavailable

What are drawdown and losing-streak behavior?

Portfolio drawdown belongs to the ledger and is not connected to this pick

Unavailable

Is the edge persisting in new data?

Model-versioned out-of-sample persistence is not exposed per pick

DECISION LAB · MODEL RECORD + YOUR READ

Challenge what the system knew.

The original records stay frozen. Your thesis is checked against the captured evidence, then any explicit numerical assumption is tested separately—never silently fed into CORE or Gameplay.

HISTORICAL

SELECTED PROP

Rae Burrell

OVER 2.5 · Assists

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREThe exact CORE record has no matching immutable Gameplay player capture to compare.

RECORDED CORE LANE

What the formula record actually says

DECISION RECEIPT

FORMULA FEATURE INPUTSNOT STORED IN THIS RECEIPTThe receipt preserves pricing outputs and the action—not the lineup, minutes, usage, or matchup contribution path.

Stored pricing outputs

CAPTURED PRICE-111book not stored · time not stored

CALIBRATED SIDE53.1%break-even 52.6% · EV +0.9%

STORED ACTIONrecord onlyOVER 2.5 · stake 0.00u

Formula: priced_lineedges
Version: v1.0.0
Decision time: time not stored
Input status: unverified
Point-in-time: unverified
Receipt quality: partial

Receipt integrity flagssource sportsbook unavailable · quote observed at unavailable · decision at unavailable · capture receipt unavailable

game settled

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREEvidence beside the call is not automatically evidence inside the call.

IMMUTABLE GAMEPLAY CAPTURE

What the research system captured

CAPTURE BUILDING

Gameplay evidence is capture building.

The CORE row remains visible, but there is no immutable research projection from which to build a numeric human scenario.

REPLAY LAB · HINDSIGHT CHALLENGE

Tell us what the model may have missed

Write your basketball thesis normally. We'll turn it into checkable claims, compare each one with the frozen Gameplay capture, and show whether a quantified counterfactual changes the make.

UNSAVED REPLAY

PRIMARY WORKFLOW

Challenge the call

FROZEN CAPTURE · DETERMINISTIC CHECK

What is your basketball read?

Your prose supplies hypotheses, never evidence. This check only recognizes explicit starter, minutes, availability, usage, matchup, pace, and rotation claims.

CORE RECORDOVER 2.553.1% side probability

GAMEPLAY MAKE—— model minutes

GAMEPLAY LEANNO SAME-LINE CAPTUREno capture at 2.5

MY MAKE—scenario unavailable

Advanced manual scenarioDirectly edit minutes, opportunity, matchup, and pace

My decision

Confidence in my readLineup / availability beliefWhose minutes / role moves?This note is required for a rotation-aware interpretation; the calculator itself remains player-only.

TRANSPARENT SCENARIO MATH

Gameplay baseline—
After your minutes—
After opportunity—
After matchup + pace—

WHAT FLIPS THE LINE?Unavailable

Under your current opportunity, matchup, and pace assumptions, this is the minutes threshold where the personal make equals 2.5.

A numeric personal make needs both a stored Gameplay projection and model minutes. You can still record a stance and thesis.

How this personal make is calculated

MODEL UPDATES

The simple read.

What the model estimated, what changed, what was recorded alongside it, and whether an official bet exists.

HISTORICAL

PlayerStat

ViewingLAST CAPTURED FORECAST · FINAL STATUS UNVERIFIEDCheckpoint history · roster completeness not verified

PLAIN-ENGLISH READ

Five things to know

R3 OF 3

01 · WHAT WE THINKLast saved pretip estimate: Rae Burrell at about 3.2 assists with 31.4 projected minutes.

02 · WHAT CHANGEDRae Burrell's assists estimate stayed the same.

The selected player's expected minutes, lineup state, availability, and estimate stayed the same.

03 · WHAT WE OBSERVEDNo player-level reason was recorded.

The page will not invent a cause that is not in the saved revision.

04 · BET STATUSHistorical record only — no current bet.

The record is retained for audit and grading, not as a live recommendation.

05 · WHAT TO WATCH NEXTOfficial player result check is unavailable.

DECISION TIMELINE · IMMUTABLE RESEARCH REVISIONS

See how the read moved.

Follow each frozen checkpoint, inspect what the system knew, and compare any two revisions. Connectors report observed differences—not invented causality.

Full reasoning · always visible

PlayerStat

3 frozen revisionsMarket-selected players · full roster not attested

→

No selected-field movementObserved difference only

→

No selected-field movementObserved difference only

OFFICIAL FORMULA LANErecord_only · OVER 2.5-111 · not_applicable

The stored formula record is shown beside the research history, not as an output caused by it.

SELECTED REVISION · R3 · T−15M

Rae Burrell · Assists

8:35 PM EDT

01 · EVIDENCEUNKNOWNprimary role · 0 absence context rows

→OBSERVED ORDER

02 · LINEUPUNATTESTED_CONFIRMEDrecorded starter

→SAME PLAYER STATE

03 · MINUTES INPUT31.4 MIN28.8–33.9 · recent-games

→PARTIALLY ATTESTED

04 · STAT FORECAST3.2 ASSISTSP10 1.0 · P50 3.0 · P90 6.0

→FORECAST FROZEN FIRST

05 · MARKETNO MARKETforecast remains market-free at this checkpoint

→COMPARISON ONLY

06 · OUTPUTFORECAST ONLYresearch comparison · not a betting call

Applied numerically

No additional numeric contribution is attested beyond the recorded forecast inputs.

Context only / not causally linked

matchupOpponent team-defense context: suppression index threes +0.69, scoring +0.67, rebounds +0.45; allows 83.3 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast.
matchupHistorical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.

Warnings & assumptions

Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because confirmed lineup source_observed_at is missing.
Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible.
Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown.
sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600231: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1630996/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1630996: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
projections-engine minutes/wnba/2026-08-06/1022600231: network
WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred.
Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.
Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes.
Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws.
No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.

COMPARE REVISIONS

What changed between two frozen reads?

A · Earlier→B · Later

FieldA · EarlierChangeB · Later

ProvenanceSnapshot

ds_12b8657d3c20aba9fea53996changedds_05a89a58dcbef41800fc3d3b

ProvenanceDecision clock

2:50 PM EDTchanged8:35 PM EDT

25 unchanged fields

Lineup & availabilityCapture status

captured—captured

Lineup & availabilityLineup

unattested_confirmed—unattested_confirmed

Lineup & availabilityStarter

starter—starter

Lineup & availabilityAvailability

unknown—unknown

Lineup & availabilityRole

primary—primary

Lineup & availabilityRole-change magnitude

none—none

Lineup & availabilityTeammate absences

none recorded—none recorded

Lineup & availabilityRole-change reasons

none recorded—none recorded

MinutesExpected minutes

31.4—31.4

MinutesRange

28.8–33.9—28.8–33.9

MinutesSource

recent-games—recent-games

OpportunityCaptured opportunity

field goal attempts 10.8 · free throw attempts 3.4 · three point attempts 4.1—field goal attempts 10.8 · free throw attempts 3.4 · three point attempts 4.1

ForecastAssists mean

3.2—3.2

ForecastInput lineage

partially attested—partially attested

ForecastAssumptions

ForecastWarnings

ContextDrivers

ForecastP10 / P50 / P90

1.0 / 3.0 / 6.0—1.0 / 3.0 / 6.0

MarketOffer

NO MARKET CAPTURE—NO MARKET CAPTURE

MarketLean

———

MarketApplied market reasoning

———

MarketContext-only market reasoning

———

MarketP(over) / P(under)

———

ProvenanceRevision triggers

checkpoint capture—checkpoint capture

ProvenanceModel artifact

f3319519…267e—f3319519…267e