WNBA · Finalupdated 12:12 UTC

New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 190.5 points · odds to win: NYL 2.32, IND 1.65

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 22:08 UTC

NYL 92 – IND 106

Final · 3 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 3 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, IND = Indiana Fever.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

L. Hull · Under 5.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.93 · last price before start pendingWon +0.93 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.93

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.00 by FanDuel (Mon 23:42 UTC); latest 2.20 at Caesars (Tue 23:09 UTC). The 4.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

K. Mitchell · Over 24.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.92 · last price before start 1.89Won +0.92 per 1 staked

M. Billings · Over 5.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.91 · last price before start 1.97Won +0.91 per 1 staked

P. Astier · Over 7.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.76Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying IND

SBreanna Stewart · 32 min expected

points 22.5 → 19 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 30 min expected

points 17.5 → 19 actual

SJonquel Jones · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 14 actual

SRebecca Allen · 23 min expected

points 5.5 → 11 actual

SPauline Astier · 22 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Xu (18 expected minutes) · Fauthoux (16 min) · +4 more

Indiana Feverplaying NYL

SKelsey Mitchell · 35 min expected

points 24.5 → 28 actual

SCaitlin Clark · 34 min expected

points 21.5 → 22 actual

SAliyah Boston · 31 min expected

points 16.5 → 19 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

SLexie Hull · 16 min expected

points 5.5 → 5 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Monique Billings · 20 min expected

points 5.5 → 14 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Harris (5 expected minutes) · Hines-Allen (3 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 12:12 UTC

Who is out

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

VanSlooten · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 10, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 5, 8 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 16, 32 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

6 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Hines-Allen, Johnson) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Allen: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 17.2 in the last 5 games, about 5.8 more than usual

Boston: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 23.0 in the last 5 games, about 8.0 more than usual

Timpson: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 19.9 in the last 5 games, about 8.1 more than usual

Mitchell: expected to play 35 minutes, averaged 29.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Billings: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 9.5 in the last 5 games, about 10.5 more than usual

Cunningham: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 17.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 129 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 4 picks won3 won, 1 lost · +1.75 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.8% lower than the last before the start · 12 lines checked, 8 scored but not picked · checked Thu 23:52 UTC

Monique Billings · points 5.5 → 14 · 8.5 above the line · played 17.4 min (20 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.91 → Won +0.91 per 1 staked

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 17.8 min (22 expected)

Pick: Over 7.5 at 1.72 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Kelsey Mitchell · points 24.5 → 28 · 3.5 above the line · played 31.2 min (35 expected)

Pick: Over 24.5 at 1.92 → Won +0.92 per 1 staked

Lexie Hull · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.9 min (16 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.93 → Won +0.93 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Rebecca Allen · points 5.5 → 11 · 5.5 above the line · played 24.3 min (23 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Makayla Timpson · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 28 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Sophie Cunningham · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 22.1 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Breanna Stewart · points 22.5 → 19 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.5 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 19 · 2.5 above the line · played 25.7 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Sabrina Ionescu · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.7 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 14 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.6 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Caitlin Clark · points 21.5 → 22 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.8 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs NYL · last 19 games · NYL leads · IND record 5–14 · average score 85.3–93.5 · IND has lost by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Aug · IND 102 at NYL 109IND lost

11 Aug · NYL 92 at IND 106IND won

18 Jul · NYL 88 at IND 108IND won

6 Jun · IND 75 at NYL 83IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.6 points · 31.5 rebounds · 21.4 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 34.3% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.4 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.0% of shots · 33.7% from three-point range · 12.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.6 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

IND gives up 90.4 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.4 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 4.5, expected total 191.5 (Tue 01:13 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 3, expected total 190.5 (Tue 22:08 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 7

Kelsey Mitchell · O 24.5 points−109value_edge_pct −1.91 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Kelsey Mitchell · O 25.5 points−104value_edge_pct −2.07 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Lexie Hull · U 5.5 points−108value_edge_pct −4.24 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Monique Billings · O 5.5 points−110value_edge_pct −4.29 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Pauline Astier · O 7.5 points−139value_edge_pct −4.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Kelsey Mitchell · O 23.5 points−122value_edge_pct −4.91 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Monique Billings · O 6.5 points+113value_edge_pct −5.18 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 12

Pauline Astier Over 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −157 → close −157 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:292828 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.5% · unexplained · actual 3 · 17.8 min · bench

Lexie Hull Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.59ubet −170 → close −183 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:290103 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.1% · actual 1 · 17.9 min · benchHull's limited 18 minutes and 5% usage rate severely restricted her rebounding opportunities, and she grabbed just 1 board despite perfect shooting efficiency. The under cashed as her sparse playing time and low-volume role made it nearly impossible to reach 4 rebounds.

Breanna Stewart Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.62ubet −161 → close −181 · CLV +2.7¢ · bet_clv:290105 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.2% · actual 5 · 29.5 min · startedStewart's high usage rate (31%) and extended floor time (30 min) generated the playmaking opportunities needed to reach 5 assists, nearly double the 2.5-assist line, despite modest shooting efficiency that kept her from dominating scoring alone.

Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −154 → close −176 · CLV +3.1¢ · bet_clv:290106 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 29.6 min · startedJones fell one assist short despite efficient scoring (5-7 FG) because her 12% usage rate—the lowest on her team—limited ball-handling opportunities in a blowout loss where she focused on finishing rather than facilitating.

Aliyah Boston Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.61ubet −164 → close −174 · CLV +1.4¢ · bet_clv:290104 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.9% · actual 4 · 25.7 min · startedBoston's high usage rate (30%) and 26 minutes gave her plenty of ball-handling opportunities, and she converted them efficiently with 4 dimes while posting 19 points—the dual offensive punch pushed her well over the 2.5 assist line.

Pauline Astier Over 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −139 → close −131 · CLV −1.4¢ · bet_clv:290107 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.3% · bad_price · actual 3 · 17.8 min · benchAstier shot 0-for-3 from the field and relied solely on free throws (3-4 FT) to reach just 3 points, well short of the 7.5 over in just 18 minutes of play. Her abysmal 14% usage rate and 32% true shooting efficiency indicate she was neither a focal point of the offense nor efficient when she did touch the ball.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:290101 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.3% · actual 28 · 31.2 min · startedMitchell's elite 81% true shooting and perfect 4-for-4 three-point night powered her to 28 points, five above the line, as she converted 11 of 16 field-goal attempts in 31 minutes of run. Her high volume from deep and efficient finishing from the field made up for modest free-throw attempts, easily clearing the 23.5 threshold.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTSWIN +0.96ubet −104 → close −104 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:290100 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · actual 28 · 31.2 min · startedMitchell's elite 68.8% true shooting (11-16 FG, 4-4 3PT) powered her past 25.5, as she converted at a career-caliber clip while playing heavy minutes (31) in a competitive game. The over-under was decided by her perfect shooting night from deep and efficient two-point conversions rather than high volume—usage stayed moderate at 28% but efficiency was surgical.

Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTSWIN +0.92ubet −109 → close −112 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:290099 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.2% · actual 28 · 31.2 min · startedMitchell's elite 68.75% effective FG rate (11-16 FG, 4-4 3PT) carried her to 28 points in 31 minutes, easily clearing the 24.5 line despite modest usage at 28%.

Lexie Hull Under 5.5 PTSWIN +0.93ubet −108 · bet_clv:290102 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · actual 5 · 17.9 min · benchHull's 5 points came on just 3 shot attempts in 18 minutes, as her 5% usage rate kept her firmly off the offensive radar despite efficient shooting (2-2 FG, 1-1 3PT). The under cashed on limited volume rather than inefficiency—she simply wasn't getting the ball in a rhythm or getting enough opportunities to reach 5.5.

Monique Billings Over 6.5 PTSWIN +1.13ubet +113 → close +126 · CLV −2.7¢ · bet_clv:290098 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.5% · actual 14 · 17.4 min · benchBillings went 6-for-6 from the free-throw line and shot 50% from the field to easily clear 6.5 points with 14 total, cashing the over despite playing just 17 minutes with modest usage.

Monique Billings Over 5.5 PTSWIN +0.91ubet −110 → close −103 · CLV −1.6¢ · bet_clv:290097 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · actual 14 · 17.4 min · benchBillings shot efficiently from the field and especially at the line (6-6 FT), more than doubling the 5.5-point line despite playing just 17 minutes. Her 66% true shooting and 28% usage rate generated enough scoring volume to comfortably clear the modest over.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 75 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 78 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 212 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 213 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 232 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 234 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 234 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 214 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 539 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 517 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 570 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 583 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 590 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 717 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 919 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 559 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 561 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 573 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 648 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 654 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 677 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.