WNBA · Aug 28 gameAll props Full sheet

Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever

FinalCON 91 – IND 111Page updated 12:19 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 3 availability alerts

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Nelson-Ododa · right knee · CON

2 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Jackson, Kneepkens, Lith, Hull, Billings, Cunningham have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 11 of 20 estimates.

Rivers: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 23.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 more than usual

Timpson: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 15.7 in the last 5 games, about 12.3 more than usual

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available · Fri 00:15 UTC · 0, 8 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Nelson-Ododa · right knee · CON

Players and minutes22 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Connecticut Sun

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 29 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

SAaliyah Edwards · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

SSaniya Rivers · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

SDiamond Miller · 27 min expected

points 10.5 → 19 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · Out · right knee

rebounds 6.5 → did not play, so no result

6 more players · no line in this feed

Nell Angloma23 min · source estimate

Raegan Beers23 min · source estimate

Ashlon Jackson14 min · source estimate

Gianna Kneepkens14 min · source estimate

Hailey Van Lith14 min · source estimate

Rayah MarshallOut · Coach's Decision

Indiana Fever

SCaitlin Clark · 34 min expected

points 22.5 → 34 actual

SKelsey Mitchell · 33 min expected

points 25.5 → 34 actual

SAliyah Boston · 29 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

SLexie Hull · 18 min expected

points 4.5 → 7 actual

Monique Billings · 18 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 18 min expected

points 7.5 → 1 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Myisha Hines-Allen10 min · source estimate

Tyasha Harris10 min · source estimate

Mercedes Russell1 min · source estimate

Raven Johnson1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

IND expected to win by about 17 · both teams together expected to score about 179.5 points · odds to win: CON 12.75, IND 1.05

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 23:33 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 12:19 UTC

Who is out

Onyiah · did not play last game

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 0, 8 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Beers · new starter

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Nelson-Ododa · right knee · CON

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Rivers: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 23.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 more than usual

Timpson: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 15.7 in the last 5 games, about 12.3 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 11 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 13 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Marshall out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Beers new starter · started, 22.1 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Monique Billings · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 7.6 min (18 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.75

Sophie Cunningham · points 7.5 → 1 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.1 min (18 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Diamond Miller · points 10.5 → 19 · 8.5 above the line · played 20.3 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Lexie Hull · points 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.3 min (18 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.96

Caitlin Clark · points 22.5 → 34 · 11.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Kelsey Mitchell · points 25.5 → 34 · 8.5 above the line · played 31.2 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Makayla Timpson · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 25 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.84

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.4 min (29 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.74

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.4 min (28 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Aaliyah Edwards · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.7 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.67, Under 2.12

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · rebounds 6.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.71

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

IND vs CON · last 22 games · CON leads · IND record 7–15 · average score 81.4–85.1 · IND has lost by 3.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · CON 91 at IND 111IND won

22 Jul · CON 88 at IND 123IND won

13 Jun · IND 85 at CON 75IND won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 16.5, expected total 179.5 (Fri 00:35 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 17, expected total 179.5 (Fri 23:33 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 38 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 106 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 110 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 118 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 122 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 125 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 134 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 365 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 520 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 874 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 593 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 695 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 696 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 697 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 696 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 698 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 800 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 867 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 867 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 869 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 870 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.