Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks

FinalWAS 82 – LAS 88Page updated 09:26 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Pili · coach’sdecision · LAS

2 players have a playing-time concern in the available estimates. Iriafen, Austin, Gray, Makani, Morgan have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons cover 11 of 20 estimates.

Laney-Hamilton: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 12.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 more than usual

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Pili · coach’sdecision · LAS

Players and minutes22 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Washington Mystics

SSonia Citron · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 22 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 12 actual

SShakira Austin · 30 min expected

points 17.5 → 19 actual

SGeorgia Amoore · 27 min expected

points 6.5 → 9 actual

SMichaela Onyenwere · 21 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Lauren Betts · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 6 actual

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton · 19 min expected

points 4.5 → 6 actual

4 more players · no line in this feed

Cotie McMahon17 min · source estimate

Alicia Florez5 min · source estimate

Angela DugalicMinutes unavailable

Cassandre ProsperMinutes unavailable

Los Angeles Sparks

SNneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

SRae Burrell · 30 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 21 actual

SDearica Hamby · 27 min expected

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

SErica Wheeler · 25 min expected

points + assists 11.5 → 16 actual

7 more players · no line in this feed

Ariel Atkins27 min · source estimate

Cameron Brink20 min · source estimate

Chance Gray10 min · source estimate

Monique Akoa Makani10 min · source estimate

Tonie Morgan10 min · source estimate

Emma Cannon6 min · source estimate

Jihyun Park5 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

WAS expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 168 points · odds to win: WAS 1.45, LAS 2.80

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 01:37 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 09:26 UTC

Who is out

Park · did not play last game

Out Pili · coach’sdecision · LAS

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Laney-Hamilton: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 12.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 11 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 6 of the 90 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Park out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Mon 02:52 UTC

11 other players with a posted line

Nneka Ogwumike · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Dearica Hamby · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.9 min (27 expected) · no final price

Erica Wheeler · points + assists 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 21.4 min (25 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.97

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.6 min (27 expected) · no final price

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton · points 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.3 min (19 expected) · no final price

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (21 expected) · no final price

Sonia Citron · points 17.5 → 22 · 4.5 above the line · played 32.1 min (31 expected) · no final price

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.3 min (30 expected) · no final price

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (30 expected) · no final price

Lauren Betts · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.6 min (20 expected) · no final price

Rae Burrell · points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 21 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.4 min (30 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LAS vs WAS · last 16 games · LAS leads · LAS record 10–6 · average score 82.3–81.0 · LAS has won by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · WAS 82 at LAS 88LAS won

15 Aug · LAS 70 at WAS 80LAS lost

29 May · LAS 92 at WAS 87LAS won

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.1−4.0 vs average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.1+4.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 5, expected total 168 (Fri 01:37 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 01:37 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 50

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 25 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 117 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 120 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 125 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 132 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 94 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 361 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 517 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 249 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 846 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 640 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 719 ms

odds player timeline (pa)ok 200 · 785 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6015 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6016 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6017 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed · 6017 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6018 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed · 6018 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6019 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6018 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.