WNBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 2 · NYL leads 1–0updated 00:32 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

No game odds posted yet

MIN 71 – NYL 87

Final · 6 of 13 picks won

13 picks checked: 6 won, 7 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, NYL = New York Liberty.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. McBride · Over 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.64 · last price before start 2.20Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.64 · Our price was 7.6% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.90 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

N. Collier · Under 17.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.56 · last price before start 2.02Won +1.56 per 1 staked

B. Stewart · Over 24.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.47 · last price before start 1.96Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

L. Fiebich · Under 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.33 · last price before start pendingWon +1.33 per 1 staked

P. Astier · Under 14.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.29 · last price before start 2.02Won +1.29 per 1 staked

L. Fiebich · Under 5.5 rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.27 · last price before start 1.94Won +1.27 per 1 staked

N. Howard · Over 11.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.23 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

L. Fiebich · Under 11.5 points + reboundsWonPosted at 2.22 · last price before start 1.88Won +1.22 per 1 staked

N. Howard · Over 14.5 points + assistsLostPosted at 2.22 · last price before start 1.94Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

N. Howard · Over 20.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.92Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

B. Stewart · Over 37.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.89Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Williams · Under 20.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.13 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

L. Fiebich · Under 14.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.13 · last price before start 1.93Won +1.13 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 22 rostered players. 13 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying NYL

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Miles (34 expected minutes) · Collier (33 min) · +8 more

New York Libertyplaying MIN

12 players have no line from any bookmaker: Stewart (32 expected minutes) · Ionescu (30 min) · +10 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 00:32 UTC

Who is out

Maley · did not play last game

Fauthoux · did not play last game

Carrera · did not play last game

Delaere · did not play last game

Bibby · did not play last game

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 00:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 5 players (Bibby, McDonald, Carrera, Maley, Fauthoux) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 42 days off before this game · NYL had 32 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 13 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Maley out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Delaere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out · did not play

5 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 6 of 13 picks won6 won, 7 lost · +0.80 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.9% higher than the last before the start · 15 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Fri 00:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs MIN · last 23 games · NYL leads · NYL record 12–11 · average score 83.4–79.8 · NYL has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87NYL won

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75NYL won

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81NYL won

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90NYL lost

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 3, expected total 172.5 (Mon 04:08 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 3.5, expected total 173.5 (Tue 23:43 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 15

Napheesa Collier · U 17.5 points+156value_edge_pct +21.54 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Breanna Stewart · O 24.5 points+147value_edge_pct +20.11 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Leonie Fiebich · U 5.5 ra+127value_edge_pct +15.66 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Pauline Astier · U 14.5 pra+129value_edge_pct +13.52 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Leonie Fiebich · U 11.5 pr+122value_edge_pct +13.11 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Kayla McBride · O 3.5 rebounds+164value_edge_pct +12.45 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Natasha Howard · O 14.5 pa+122value_edge_pct +10.70 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Leonie Fiebich · U 7.5 points+133value_edge_pct +9.75 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Natasha Howard · O 20.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +9.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Natasha Howard · O 11.5 points+123value_edge_pct +7.72 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Breanna Stewart · O 37.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +7.63 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Courtney Williams · U 20.5 pra+113value_edge_pct +7.24 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Leonie Fiebich · U 14.5 pra+113value_edge_pct +6.63 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Breanna Stewart · U 24.5 points−127value_edge_pct +5.96 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 22

Napheesa Collier · U 19.5 points−130value_edge_pct +3.31 · kelly 1.10u · price_check unchecked · rank 23

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 15

Courtney Williams Under 20.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +113 → close −102 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:2009419 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 31 · 37.9 min · started

Kayla McBride Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +164 → close +120 · CLV +7.6¢ · bet_clv:2009420 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 38.8 min · started

Breanna Stewart Over 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +147 → close −104 · CLV +10.5¢ · bet_clv:2023721 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 21 · 40.0 min · started

Natasha Howard Over 14.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close −106 · CLV +6.4¢ · bet_clv:2028504 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 15.6 min · bench

Natasha Howard Over 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +123 → close −102 · CLV +5.7¢ · bet_clv:2009422 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 15.6 min · bench

Natasha Howard Over 20.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −109 · CLV +5.6¢ · bet_clv:2028503 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 15.6 min · bench

Leonie Fiebich Under 11.5 PRWIN +1.22ubet +122 → close −114 · CLV +8.2¢ · bet_clv:2028498 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 10 · 29.3 min · started

Breanna Stewart Over 37.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −112 · CLV +6.3¢ · bet_clv:2028494 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 30 · 40.0 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Under 14.5 PRAWIN +1.13ubet +113 → close −108 · CLV +5.0¢ · bet_clv:2023724 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · actual 11 · 29.3 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Under 5.5 RAWIN +1.27ubet +127 → close −106 · CLV +7.4¢ · bet_clv:2018474 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 4 · 29.3 min · started

Pauline Astier Under 14.5 PRAWIN +1.29ubet +129 → close +102 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:2012771 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.6% · actual 12 · 33.2 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Under 7.5 PTSWIN +1.33ubet +133 · bet_clv:2012770 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.1% · actual 7 · 29.3 min · started

Breanna Stewart Under 24.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:2028495 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 21 · 40.0 min · startedStewart's efficient free-throw shooting (9-9) kept her close to the line, but a 6-16 field goal performance (37.5%) and 0-4 night from three limited her scoring despite 40 minutes of play. The under hit as her shot selection and accuracy fell short of the 24.5 threshold despite high usage.

Napheesa Collier Under 17.5 PTSWIN +1.56ubet +156 → close +102 · CLV +10.4¢ · bet_clv:2009421 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.5% · actual 14 · 33.2 min · startedCollier's 44% true shooting and 6-14 field goal performance kept her grounded at 14 points despite playing all 33 available minutes, with poor efficiency—especially from three (0-5 attempts)—preventing her from reaching the over.

Napheesa Collier Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 · bet_clv:2023726 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 14 · 33.2 min · startedCollier's inefficient 6-14 shooting night (42.9 FG%) combined with a quiet 2-4 free-throw line kept her well short of 19.5 despite logging 33 minutes; she couldn't generate enough scoring volume or efficiency to hit the line even with solid usage at 25%.

Data fetches · 41

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 65 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 106 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 139 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 141 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 154 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 207 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 255 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 421 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 308 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 309 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 312 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 314 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 323 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 324 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 326 ms

odds player timeline (pa)failed 503 · 332 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 360 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed · 6002 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.