Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.
Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted
Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Our picks, raw · 15
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · U 4.5 points+156value_edge_pct +22.89 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1
Raven Johnson · U 6.5 pr+140value_edge_pct +20.58 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2
A'ja Wilson · U 41.5 pra+135value_edge_pct +17.04 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · U 8.5 pr+125value_edge_pct +14.64 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4
Chelsea Gray · U 15.5 pr+123value_edge_pct +13.62 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5
Chelsea Gray · U 9.5 ra+122value_edge_pct +12.48 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6
Aliyah Boston · U 14.5 points+130value_edge_pct +11.93 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Raven Johnson · U 4.5 points+130value_edge_pct +11.72 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8
Aliyah Boston · U 7.5 rebounds+147value_edge_pct +11.15 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Lexie Hull · U 7.5 pra+130value_edge_pct +9.84 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 10
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · O 6.5 points+128value_edge_pct +9.61 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 11
Aliyah Boston · O 16.5 points+123value_edge_pct +9.38 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Lexie Hull · U 3.5 ra+140value_edge_pct +9.12 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 13
Lexie Hull · O 8.5 pra+112value_edge_pct +8.02 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 14
Aliyah Boston · O 19.5 pa+108value_edge_pct +6.82 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 15
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 16
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Over 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +128 → close +100 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:2068208 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 21.9 min · started
Chelsea Gray Under 15.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +123 → close +100 · CLV +5.2¢ · bet_clv:2068206 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 27 · 40.0 min · started
Aliyah Boston Under 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +147 → close +118 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:2065021 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 10 · 31.5 min · startedBoston dominated the glass with 10 rebounds in 32 minutes, converting 50% of her shot attempts and drawing four fouls that kept her on the court despite foul trouble, easily clearing the 7.5 line.
Raven Johnson Under 6.5 PRWIN +1.40ubet +140 → close +102 · CLV +7.8¢ · bet_clv:2065022 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 6 · 18.8 min · bench
Aliyah Boston Over 19.5 PAWIN +1.08ubet +108 → close −125 · CLV +7.5¢ · bet_clv:2067351 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.4% · actual 22 · 31.5 min · started
Raven Johnson Under 4.5 PTSWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close −102 · CLV +7.0¢ · bet_clv:2065023 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · actual 2 · 18.8 min · bench
Aliyah Boston Over 16.5 PTSWIN +1.23ubet +123 → close −104 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:2067350 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · actual 19 · 31.5 min · started
Aliyah Boston Over 0.5 3PMWIN +0.61ubet −165 → close −220 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:2067352 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.8% · actual 2 · 31.5 min · started
Chelsea Gray Under 9.5 RAWIN +1.22ubet +122 → close +114 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:2067353 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · actual 9 · 40.0 min · started
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Under 8.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +125 → close −114 · CLV +8.8¢ · bet_clv:2068209 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 21.9 min · started
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Under 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +156 → close −103 · CLV +11.7¢ · bet_clv:2068207 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 21.9 min · started
A'ja Wilson Under 41.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +135 → close −102 · CLV +7.9¢ · bet_clv:2068204 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 47 · 37.1 min · started
Lexie Hull Over 8.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +112 → close −136 · CLV +10.5¢ · bet_clv:2067355 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 13.5 min · bench
Lexie Hull Under 7.5 PRAWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close −102 · CLV +7.0¢ · bet_clv:2067356 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.8% · actual 4 · 13.5 min · bench
Lexie Hull Under 3.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet +140 → close −102 · CLV +8.8¢ · bet_clv:2067354 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 13.5 min · bench
Aliyah Boston Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2067349 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · unexplained · actual 19 · 31.5 min · started
Data fetches · 41
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 178 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 179 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 183 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 186 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 199 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 217 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 226 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 231 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-30)ok 200 · 233 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 234 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 235 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 237 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 238 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 239 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 239 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 240 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 241 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 242 ms
sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 244 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 245 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 249 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 252 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 253 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 267 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 355 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 410 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 411 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 444 ms
odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 197 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 203 ms
odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 205 ms
odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 209 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 212 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 216 ms
odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 222 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 224 ms
odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 232 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1682 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1602 ms
grading verdict/boardfailed · 6002 ms