Maria Conde over 11.5 points

She has cleared 11.5 in 13 of 35 games — 37.1%. That rate needs +169 to break even, and no book in our ledger has priced it.

Tonight

THU · SEP 24

Questionable She is Questionable tonight (Back).

TOR @ CON7:00 PM ETprojected starter · 18 projected minutes
OutAneesah MorrowLeft Knee
OutBrittney SykesLeft Foot
OutMarina MabreyRight Adductor
OutTemi FagbenlePersonal Reasons
AT 15+ MINUTES · 202633 games · 27.1 min · 8.9 points · 13/33 over 11.5 (39%)

Tonight's projection is 18 minutes. This is her season at that workload.

WITHOUT MORROW31 games · 26.1 min · 8.2 points · 11/31 over 11.5with her (n=4): 28.5 min · 11.0 points · 50%with her →
WITHOUT SYKES20 games · 28.9 min · 9.4 points · 8/20 over 11.5with her (n=15): 23.2 min · 7.3 points · 33%with her →
WITHOUT MABREY5 games · 25.4 min · 5.8 points · 0/5 over 11.5with her (n=30): 26.6 min · 9.0 points · 43%with her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

01

Distribution

35 games · hover a bucket
UNDER · 22OVER · 13  ·  filled bars clear the line
02

Recent games

points · line 11.5 · hover a bar
2026-05-215-game mean2026-09-22 · newest
03

Recent form

30.0%3/10 · last 10
2026-07-20 · 15 points · OVER
15
2026-07-28 · 20 points · OVER
20
2026-07-30 · 5 points · UNDER
5
2026-08-02 · 10 points · UNDER
10
2026-08-04 · 17 points · OVER
17
2026-08-06 · 6 points · UNDER
6
2026-08-10 · 2 points · UNDER
2
2026-08-26 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-09-20 · 0 points · UNDER
0
2026-09-22 · 5 points · UNDER
5

A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.

04

Market history

No book in our ledger has priced this exact line. Our books publish eight WNBA markets, so a threshold outside those has a rate but no price to check it against.

05

Game log

25 of 35 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 11.5
2026-09-22
CHI
AWAY
13.9MIN
5POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-5
UNDER
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
46.0
USG%
16.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
8
2026-09-20
NYL
HOME
22.3MIN
0POINTS
2 · 3 · 0-8
UNDER
FG
0-8
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
21.6
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-24
PRA
5
2026-08-26
SEA
AWAY
19.8MIN
4POINTS
4 · 4 · 2-5
UNDER
FG
2-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
40.0
USG%
18.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
12
2026-08-10
ATL
AWAY
27.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 3 · 1-4
UNDER
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
8.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
6
2026-08-06
POR
AWAY
28.7MIN
6POINTS
6 · 2 · 3-9
UNDER
FG
3-9
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
33.3
USG%
14.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
14
2026-08-04
GSV
AWAY
30.1MIN
17POINTS
6 · 4 · 6-12
OVER
FG
6-12
3PT
5-10
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
70.8
USG%
24.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
27
2026-08-02
GSV
AWAY
33.7MIN
10POINTS
5 · 5 · 5-14
UNDER
FG
5-14
3PT
0-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
35.7
USG%
21.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
20
2026-07-30
MIN
HOME
27.6MIN
5POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-6
UNDER
FG
2-6
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
41.7
USG%
11.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-13
PRA
9
2026-07-28
MIN
AWAY
29.9MIN
20POINTS
10 · 1 · 7-16
OVER
FG
7-16
3PT
4-9
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/7
TS%
59.2
USG%
29.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
31
2026-07-20
LVA
HOME
27.6MIN
15POINTS
8 · 4 · 6-12
OVER
FG
6-12
3PT
3-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/6
TS%
62.5
USG%
18.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
27
2026-07-17
ATL
HOME
30.7MIN
13POINTS
4 · 5 · 2-8
OVER
FG
2-8
3PT
1-5
FT
8-9
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
54.3
USG%
17.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-22
PRA
22
2026-07-14
WAS
HOME
30.0MIN
2POINTS
4 · 3 · 1-5
UNDER
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
20.0
USG%
10.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
9
2026-07-12
NYL
HOME
33.5MIN
15POINTS
2 · 2 · 5-11
OVER
FG
5-11
3PT
3-7
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
63.1
USG%
15.9
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+14
PRA
19
2026-07-10
DAL
HOME
34.8MIN
12POINTS
3 · 9 · 5-9
OVER
FG
5-9
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-18
PRA
24
2026-07-08
GSV
HOME
35.4MIN
9POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-8
UNDER
FG
3-8
3PT
1-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
50.7
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
13
2026-07-05
DAL
HOME
28.5MIN
3POINTS
10 · 3 · 1-10
UNDER
FG
1-10
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
4/6
TS%
15.0
USG%
20.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
16
2026-06-27
PHO
HOME
37.2MIN
10POINTS
6 · 6 · 4-14
UNDER
FG
4-14
3PT
1-8
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
34.6
USG%
21.0
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
22
2026-06-25
LAS
HOME
28.9MIN
13POINTS
7 · 0 · 4-8
OVER
FG
4-8
3PT
3-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/7
TS%
73.2
USG%
14.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+27
PRA
20
2026-06-22
ATL
AWAY
29.0MIN
8POINTS
4 · 2 · 3-6
UNDER
FG
3-6
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
13.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-20
PRA
14
2026-06-19
CON
AWAY
27.5MIN
19POINTS
6 · 3 · 5-12
OVER
FG
5-12
3PT
5-8
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
69.0
USG%
21.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
28
2026-06-16
IND
AWAY
31.3MIN
12POINTS
4 · 5 · 4-8
OVER
FG
4-8
3PT
3-4
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
71.1
USG%
12.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-22
PRA
21
2026-06-14
ATL
HOME
24.7MIN
12POINTS
3 · 4 · 4-9
OVER
FG
4-9
3PT
1-2
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
53.6
USG%
24.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-12
PRA
19
2026-06-12
WAS
AWAY
21.8MIN
7POINTS
6 · 4 · 3-7
UNDER
FG
3-7
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
44.4
USG%
22.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+7
PRA
17
2026-06-10
CON
HOME
14.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-2
UNDER
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.5
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
4
2026-06-07
CHI
HOME
24.3MIN
5POINTS
6 · 2 · 2-8
UNDER
FG
2-8
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
31.3
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
13
showing 25 of 35 — every rate above is computed over all 35