← priced_lineedges_floored · WNBA
2026-09-19
Day by day
Latest 1 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: priced_lineedges_floored.
13–12 · 52% · +0.24u across the last 1 days
09/1913–1252%+0.24u3 games
CHI @ ATL3–6−3.55u
- Naz Hillmon Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 19 minutes, hampered by dismal 0-5 shooting that likely limited her interior activity and offensive rebounding opportunities. Her 13% usage rate suggests limited involvement in the offense, reducing the number of possessions and second-chance situations that typically generate rebound volume.
- Naz Hillmon Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon shot 0-for-5 from the field and generated only 13% usage in 19 minutes, leaving her entirely dependent on free throws for scoring and unable to reach 8 points. Her 17% true shooting percentage reflects a near-complete offensive drought that rendered the over unplayable.
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 11.5 PTS11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationCardoso's efficient 74% TS on 24% usage fell just short as she scored exactly 11 points in 19 minutes, missing the mark by a single point despite a strong 5-7 shooting night. Limited run and conservative offensive touches in a game that didn't require high volume from her prevented the slight scoring bump needed to clear 11.5.
- Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS14 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberHoward fell just short despite efficient shooting (71% TS on 18% usage) because her 24 minutes and modest volume—only 9 FG attempts—capped her scoring at 14 points, two shy of the line.
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS11 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso's efficient 5-7 shooting (71%) wasn't enough to clear 12.5 points due to limited minutes (19) and usage (24%), holding her to 11 points despite a strong True Shooting percentage.
- Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS14 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot efficiently (71% TS) but saw limited volume with just 18% usage and 24 minutes, falling 3.5 points short of the over despite solid shooting splits (5-9 FG, 3-6 3PT).
PHO @ DAL3–3+0.03u
- Awak Kuier Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upKuier's perfect 4-for-4 shooting from the field (including 1-for-1 from three) on limited 27 minutes was the outlier—she converted at 100% TS despite her low 9% usage rate, pushing her just over the 9.5 line despite minimal offensive involvement.
- Alyssa Thomas Under 16.5 PTS19 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas exceeded the under on efficient interior scoring, shooting 8-11 from the field (73%) while playing a full 30 minutes in a game that stayed competitive throughout. Her high-volume inside looks and near-perfect shooting from close range—combined with 10 assists that kept her involved in the offense—pushed her well past 16.5 despite modest usage at 22%.
- Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 PTS19 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas torched the under with an efficient 8-11 shooting night (72.7% FG), converting nearly three-quarters of her attempts from the field to reach 19 points despite modest usage at 22%. Her elite scoring efficiency—well above her season baseline—was the difference maker in pushing past the 15.5-point threshold.
SEA @ GSV7–3+3.76u
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 4.5 AST3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman fell just short despite playing 30 minutes, finishing with only 3 assists due to low offensive involvement—her 11% usage rate and 2-5 shooting kept her off the ball and limited playmaking opportunities.
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationJohnson grabbed one more board than the line despite inefficient shooting (6-18 FG), staying on the court for 34 minutes and maintaining high usage (34%) to accumulate volume opportunities on the glass.
- Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed 6 rebounds in 30 minutes despite shooting 0-for-6, as her role shifted toward perimeter defense and rebounding activity rather than offensive usage. The 9% usage rate and scoreless night limited her impact elsewhere, but high playing time ensured she collected enough boards to clear the 4.5 line.
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.