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priced_lineedges_floored
81–60 over 141 priced bets · +10.1u · ROI +7.1% -8.2% to +22.5% · CLV +1.36¢ +0.9% to +1.8%
Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
Latest 8 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: priced_lineedges_floored.
81–60 · 57% · +10.07u across the last 8 days · 1 voided, zero benchmark units
08/3016–1552%−0.75u4 games
MIN @ ATL1–6−5.13u
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese fell one assist short despite 33 minutes and heavy involvement (22% usage, 11 rebounds), as her ball-handling struggles—5 turnovers in limited playmaking opportunities—kept her from the 3+ assists threshold.
- Naz Hillmon Over 4.5 REB3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon played a full 30 minutes but couldn't secure boards despite adequate opportunity, finishing with just 3 rebounds on 18% usage and a poor 3-9 shooting line that likely limited her presence around the rim.
- Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTS16 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's inefficient 6-16 shooting night (37.5% FG, 22% from three) left her two points shy despite logging heavy minutes, as poor shot selection and limited free-throw opportunities (2-2 on just 2 attempts) prevented her from reaching the 18.5 threshold.
- Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS16 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHoward fell one point short despite heavy usage (35 min, 20% usage rate), undone by poor shooting efficiency—she connected on just 6-of-16 from the field (37.5% FG) and 2-of-9 from three, both well below her season norms. The 47% true shooting wasn't enough volume to reach 18 points, the realistic threshold for a profitable over.
- Allisha Gray Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationGray's playmaking touch disappeared despite heavy offensive load—she fired 16 shots and scored 23 points on elite efficiency but generated just 2 assists, suggesting ball-dominant usage that prioritized scoring over distribution in a blowout win (+17).
- Naz Hillmon Over 7.5 PTS7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one point short despite playing 30 minutes, hamstrung by a brutal 3-9 shooting night (33% FG) that left her unable to reach 8 points even with decent volume. Her 18% usage rate suggests limited offensive touches, compounding the damage of her below-average efficiency.
GSV @ POR5–8−3.54u
- Kayla Thornton Under 7.5 PTS17 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 5-8 from the field and 3-5 from three while posting a 87% true shooting percentage in 25 minutes—nearly double the scoring needed to clear 7.5 points on just 19% usage.
- Megan DiLeo Over 13.5 PTS12 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberDiLeo fell just short despite efficient shooting (60% FG), limited by 24 minutes of run and a 23% usage rate in a game where the team's offensive load was distributed elsewhere. One made three-pointer instead of going 0-for-3 from deep would have cleared the line.
- Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS17 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) easily doubled the expected output, and her 25 minutes of run time at 19% usage provided the volume to cash in on her hot shooting from the field and foul line (4-4 FT).
- Kiah Stokes Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStokes was limited to just 12 minutes and recorded only 1 rebound, as her minimal playing time and 0% usage rate prevented her from approaching the 5.5 rebound threshold.
- Kaila Charles Under 5.5 REB8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberCharles grabbed 8 boards on 30 minutes played despite modest 24% usage, translating to a rebound rate well above her season baseline and enough to clear the 5.5 line. Her +20 rating and the team's blowout win likely kept her on the floor for garbage-time opportunities that inflated her rebounding total.
- Kaitlyn Chen Under 9.5 PTS15 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upChen torched the under with an efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) while playing a full 27 minutes, combining volume and accuracy to nearly double the 9.5-point projection.
CON @ DAL3–1+1.47u
- Awak Kuier Over 8.5 PTS4 vs 8.5no clean explanationKuier's 4 points fell well short of the 8.5-point line due to minimal offensive involvement—she posted just 7% usage and took only 2 field-goal attempts despite playing 20 minutes. Though she was efficient when she did shoot (50% FG, 100% FT), the volume simply wasn't there to reach the over.
LAS @ SEA7–0+6.45u
08/294–267%+1.33u2 games
CHI @ NYL0–1−1.00u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 14.5 PTS9 vs 14.5paid over the fair number
TOR @ PHO4–1+2.33u
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas fell one rebound short despite solid floor time (22 min), held back by low volume—her 14% usage and pass-first role (12 assists) limited her opportunities on the glass in a blowout win (+38).
08/2814–382%+9.03u4 games
WAS @ LAS1–1−0.13u
- Sonia Citron Under 17.5 PTS22 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCitron exceeded the under by hitting 50% from three (4-7) and shot efficiently overall at 60% TS despite modest volume, posting 22 points in 32 minutes to easily clear 17.5.
CON @ IND3–0+2.50u
TOR @ LVA5–1+3.15u
- Isabelle Harrison Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHarrison came up one rebound short despite solid 24 minutes and high usage (36%), held back by limited opportunities on the glass—she grabbed only 7 boards while shooting just 5-for-14 from the field in a game where her team was outrebounded.
POR @ ATL5–1+3.51u
- Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton was ice-cold from the field, shooting just 1-6 (17%) with 0-3 from three despite playing 33 minutes, and her 10% usage rate left her with minimal scoring opportunities in the game. Even with free throws, she could only muster 4 points—well short of 14.5—on a historically poor 29% true shooting night.
08/273–633%−3.69u2 games
WAS @ PHO2–4−2.53u
- Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 PTS4 vs 13.5no clean explanationThomas was held to just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) despite playing 32 minutes, rendering her 11% usage rate irrelevant; the offensive inefficiency—compounded by zero 3-pointers—left her stranded well short of 13.5 points.
- Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Under 5.5 PTS6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS11 vs 17.5no clean explanationAustin shot just 3-9 from the field despite playing 30 minutes, and her 17% usage rate—well below her season average—limited her scoring opportunities in a game where she didn't get enough offensive touches to reach 18+.
- Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTS11 vs 16.5no clean explanationAustin's 11 points fell short of 16.5 despite playing 30 minutes due to inefficient shooting (3-9 FG, 33%), as she relied heavily on free throws (5-5) to generate scoring rather than consistent field-goal production.
GSV @ NYL1–2−1.16u
- Janelle Salaun Over 11.5 PTS7 vs 11.5no clean explanationSalaun's efficient rebounding (7 boards in 24 minutes) kept her on the floor, but she shot just 3-10 from the field (30%) with poor efficiency across the board, falling 4.5 points short of the over despite solid playing time and a positive plus-minus.
- Pauline Astier Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier's ice-cold 2-6 shooting (33% TS) left her stuck at 4 points despite 24 minutes of run, as poor shot selection and execution prevented her from reaching the 6.5-point threshold. Her 16% usage rate compounded the issue, limiting her scoring opportunities in a game where she struggled to find rhythm offensively.
08/263–633%−2.97u2 games
GSV @ CON0–2−2.00u
- Tiffany Hayes Over 10.5 PTS5 vs 10.5game script — blowout or foul troubleHayes played only 3 minutes, severely limiting her scoring opportunities despite efficient shooting (2-3 FG, 1-1 3PT); reduced playing time was the decisive factor in missing the over.
- Kennedy Burke Over 9.5 PTS2 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurke shot just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) and missed both free-throw attempts despite 22 minutes of action, combining for only 2 points well below the 9.5 line. Her 12% usage rate and 17% true shooting percentage indicate she was both limited in touches and inefficient when she did get the ball.
TOR @ SEA3–4−0.97u
- Isabelle Harrison Under 15.5 PTS17 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison exceeded the under on volume rather than efficiency, taking 16 shots across 32 minutes (27% usage) and converting 7-of-10 free throws to reach 17 points despite shooting just 31% from the field and 0-for-4 from three. Her elevated free-throw attempts (10 FT) and heavy workload proved enough to clear 15.5 despite poor overall shooting splits.
- Isabelle Harrison Under 14.5 PTS17 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison converted 7 of 10 free throws (70%) to reach 17 points despite shooting just 31% from the field, leaning heavily on free-throw volume to exceed the 14.5-point line. Her 32 minutes and 27% usage rate provided enough offensive opportunities for her to push over despite poor overall efficiency.
- Jade Melbourne Under 6.5 AST7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne pushed one assist over the line despite modest usage (19%), as she operated efficiently in 33 minutes and found cutters consistently in a game flow that favored ball movement with her low turnover rate (2 TOs).
- Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne eclipsed the 5.5 assist line by distributing the ball at elevated volume—she posted 7 assists across 33 minutes of heavy involvement, commanding 19% usage and operating as a primary playmaker in the offense. Her efficiency across all shot types (61% TS, 5-10 FG) kept her on the floor and in rhythm to generate multiple looks for teammates.
08/258–1142%−3.87u3 games
WAS @ PHO3–6−3.13u
- Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS16 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin fell just short despite efficient 7-11 shooting (64% FG) because limited free-throw attempts (2-5) and 24 minutes of action left her one point shy of the over. Her 28% usage rate and lack of three-point volume meant she needed a perfect night from the line to clear 17.5, and two makes there weren't enough.
- Shakira Austin Over 18.5 PTS16 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationAustin fell just short despite efficient shooting (7-11 FG, 61% TS) because limited minutes (24) and modest usage (28%) capped her scoring opportunities at 16 points. She needed to maintain this shooting efficiency while playing closer to 30+ minutes to clear 18.5.
- Natasha Mack Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberMack crashed the glass hard despite limited minutes, pulling down 8 rebounds in just 25 minutes on elite 75% true shooting—her aggressive interior presence on a hot shooting night (9-12 FG) translated to more available boards than anticipated at the under line.
- Kelsey Plum Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberPlum's playmaking was non-existent despite 38% usage, recording just 1 assist in 17 minutes while turning the ball over once and fouling out with 5 fouls, limiting her ability to orchestrate the offense. Her role was reduced to isolation scoring rather than facilitating, and she couldn't generate the dribble drive opportunities needed to hit the assist total.
- Natasha Mack Under 8.5 PTS19 vs 8.5no clean explanationMack torched the under by shooting 9-of-12 from the field (75% FG) in 25 minutes, nearly doubling the betting line with efficient interior scoring that required no three-point attempts or free throws to reach 19 points. Her 76% true shooting and high volume from close range exploited a matchup that the oddsmakers had underestimated.
- Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTS16 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin fell one point short despite solid efficiency (61% TS on 28% usage), ultimately limited by 24 minutes of playing time that capped her scoring opportunities just below the line.
CHI @ CON2–3−1.28u
- Saniya Rivers Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upRivers pushed over the line with exactly 5 assists despite shooting just 3-10 and posting poor efficiency (35% TS), relying on playmaking volume rather than scoring to stay productive in 29 minutes.
- Sydney Taylor Over 12.5 PTS4 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor's shooting was catastrophic, going 2-11 from the field (18% TS%) with an 0-6 three-point night in 20 minutes, making it mathematically impossible to reach 12.5 points. Despite moderate usage (25%), her inability to convert any perimeter shots and reliance on made field goals left her 8.5 points short of the over.
- Natasha Cloud Over 11.5 PTS3 vs 11.5no clean explanationCloud played just 16 minutes with minimal offensive involvement (11% usage, 1-3 FG), falling well short of the 11.5-point line. Limited run and low shot volume kept her far below projection despite solid efficiency when she did touch the ball.
POR @ DAL3–2+0.53u
- Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton played 30 minutes with heavy offensive usage (22%) but failed to crash the glass, grabbing just 2 rebounds despite taking 13 shots—a clear departure from her rebounding role that left the over well short.
- Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 PTS21 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard torched the under with 10-15 shooting (67% FG) in 34 minutes, staying out of foul trouble (0 PF) to maintain heavy volume and elite efficiency at 64% true shooting. Her 26% usage rate combined with near-perfect shot selection meant she needed just 15 attempts to reach 21 points, well above the 15.5 projection.
08/2410–8 ·1 void56%+0.28u2 games
GSV @ MIN5–6−1.93u
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride grabbed 4 boards despite a poor 2-11 shooting night, staying on the floor for all 33 minutes and maintaining active rebounding work even as her offensive touches dried up. The volume was there to hit the over, and she delivered on the glass despite shooting just 18% from the field.
- Veronica Burton Under 6.5 AST9 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton's playmaking dominated the game despite modest usage; she notched 9 assists in 30 minutes—well above the 6.5 line—by running the offense efficiently with just 1 turnover and forcing 5 steals that generated transition opportunities.
- Olivia Miles Over 19.5 PTS8 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMiles shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) and 1-5 from three on 29% usage, combining for historically poor efficiency (31% TS%) that made it impossible to reach 19.5 despite playing 28 minutes. The offensive struggles were across the board—she couldn't generate scoring opportunities and converted few of the looks she did get.
- Olivia Miles Over 18.5 PTS8 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMiles shot just 25% from the field (3-12) with brutal 31% true shooting, falling well short of the 18.5-point line despite playing 28 minutes and maintaining solid usage at 29%. Cold shooting across the board—1-5 from three and inefficient overall—was the primary culprit in the 10.5-point shortfall.
- Olivia Miles Over 17.5 PTS8 vs 17.5no clean explanation
- Maya Caldwell Under 4.5 PTS9 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberCaldwell's rare 3-5 three-point shooting night—capped by a 90% true shooting percentage—doubled her expected output despite modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient volume from deep proved enough to clear 4.5. The under missed because elite efficiency on limited attempts can still generate ceiling-level scoring in short bursts.
ATL @ LAS5–2 ·1 void+2.21u
- Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTS2 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's ice-cold 1-6 shooting (17% TS) left her well short despite 25 minutes of run, as she managed just 2 points on 15% usage in a game where she couldn't find her rhythm from the field.
- Erica Wheeler Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5no clean explanationWheeler's abysmal 1-6 shooting (17% TS%) left her with just 2 points despite playing 25 minutes, as she couldn't convert opportunities in an efficient offensive system. The combination of poor shot selection and execution—missing all six attempts—made the 7.5-point line unreachable.
08/2323–972%+10.71u4 games
WAS @ POR2–2−0.35u
- Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton fell one rebound short despite heavy volume (36 min, 18% usage), as her elite offensive efficiency (64% TS%, 8-14 FG) kept her ball-dominant in a way that limited rebounding opportunities relative to her playing time.
- Georgia Amoore Under 7.5 PTS13 vs 7.5no clean explanation
IND @ CHI6–4+0.96u
- Monique Billings Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBillings grabbed exactly 5 rebounds in 19 minutes, just clearing the 4.5 bar despite modest offensive involvement (16% usage); she was efficient on the glass relative to her limited shot diet and playing time.
- Caitlin Clark Under 25.5 PTS37 vs 25.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark torched the line on elite efficiency, shooting 54% from three and 75% overall on high volume (41% usage) with zero fouls allowing her to stay on the court all 32 minutes. The combination of hot shooting and unrestricted playing time pushed her well past 25.5 points.
- Sydney Taylor Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor's shot completely abandoned her, connecting on just 2-of-9 from the field and 0-of-6 from three for a 22% true shooting percentage in 18 minutes. The combination of brutal efficiency and limited playing time (likely due to three fouls) left her far short of the 14.5-point line.
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5no clean explanationCardoso fell short of 8.5 boards with just 6 rebounds despite 24 minutes of run, hampered by early foul trouble (5 PF) that limited her interior presence and a lopsided team performance (-31 +/-) that kept Chicago out of rebounding situations.
SEA @ DAL6–3+1.91u
- Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 REB11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upShepard grabbed 11 rebounds in 27 minutes, exceeding the 10.5 line by one despite modest offensive efficiency (5-11 FG); her workload on the glass was enough to push the under just over the edge.
- Paige Bueckers Under 23.5 PTS32 vs 23.5no clean explanation
- Paige Bueckers Under 22.5 PTS32 vs 22.5paid over the fair number
LVA @ TOR9–0+8.19u
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.