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2026-09-27

Day by day

Latest 1 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: priced_lineedges_floored.

28–24 · 54% · +0.40u across the last 1 days

09/2728–2454%+0.40u4 games

permalink to 2026-09-27 →

WAS @ ATL6–10−4.93u
  • Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese recorded just 1 assist despite 30 minutes played, as her offensive role centered on scoring and rebounding (13 points, 12 rebounds) rather than facilitating—she turned the ball over only once but generated minimal playmaking opportunities in Chicago's balanced attack.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's 20 minutes and 8% usage were both well below her typical workload, limiting her to just 2 made field goals despite solid efficiency, and she didn't attempt a free throw to compensate.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, held back by minimal usage (8%) and a box-out role that limited her opportunities on the glass in a game without significant volume demands.
  • Lauren Betts Over 5.5 PTS2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts went 1-for-4 from the field with a 25% true shooting percentage, well below the scoring efficiency needed to hit 5.5 points in 23 minutes of play. Her 11% usage rate and shooting struggles—missing 3-of-4 attempts—left her well short of the projection.
  • Michaela Onyenwere Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere grabbed 4 rebounds in 26 minutes despite shooting just 3-9 from the field, as she stayed active on the glass even when her offensive touches weren't falling. The under missed because she reached the mark through volume availability rather than efficiency—she logged solid floor time and pulled down boards at a reasonable rate despite the poor shooting night.
  • Allisha Gray Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray was a pure scorer tonight, posting 22 points on efficient shooting (60% TS) but recorded zero assists despite 35 minutes of play—she operated almost exclusively as a volume scorer rather than a facilitator, with her 23% usage channeled entirely into shot attempts rather than playmaking.
IND @ LVA1–5−4.04u
  • Makayla Timpson Over 6.5 PTS2 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberTimpson's 25 minutes of playing time couldn't overcome ice-cold shooting—she went 1-for-4 from the field (25% TS) with no free-throw attempts, leaving her well short of the 6.5-point line despite solid rebound production.
  • A'ja Wilson Under 9.5 REB16 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's elite efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) kept her on the floor for all 35 minutes, and her 32% usage rate generated enough possessions to rack up 16 boards—well above the 9.5 line despite only fouling three times in a blowout win.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 PTS14 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray's efficient 4-8 shooting (50% FG) combined with a 6-7 free-throw line performance pushed her past the under despite modest volume, as she capitalized on high-efficiency looks in 34 minutes of play.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 13.5 PTS14 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray pushed just over the line with 14 points on efficient 63% true shooting, converting 6-of-7 free throws to make up for modest field-goal volume (4-8 FG) in her 34 minutes of play.
  • A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 REB16 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson dominated the glass with 16 rebounds in 35 minutes, fueled by her elite 79% field-goal rate (15-19) that kept her on the floor and offensive rebounding opportunities alive in a blowout win (+29).
DAL @ GSV11–7+2.51u
  • Awak Kuier Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5no clean explanationKuier fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (1-5 FG) that limited her involvement and kept her off the glass in a lopsided game where she finished -25. Her 15% usage rate indicates minimal touches and opportunities to crash the boards.
  • Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun grabbed just 2 rebounds in 21 minutes despite decent playing time, falling 2 short of the 3.5 line—her limited opportunities on the glass were compounded by inefficient offensive play (1-6 FG) that kept her out of rhythm and reduced her involvement in hustle situations.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale shot just 2-7 from the field despite playing 26 minutes, and while she converted all six free throws, the inefficient field-goal performance (28.6% FG) left her three points short of the over. Her 21% usage rate and modest 52% true shooting capped her scoring ceiling in a game where Dallas fell into a blowout (-31 +/-).
  • Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed exactly one more rebound than the line predicted, finishing with 5 boards in 19 minutes of solid efficiency (4-6 FG, 83% TS); the under missed by the slimmest margin despite her limited role and low usage rate.
  • Gabby Williams Under 16.5 PTS20 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams shot 50% from the field (8-16) and maintained efficient scoring throughout her 27 minutes, easily clearing the 16.5-point threshold with 20 points on high volume and elite True Shooting percentage (58%).
  • Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS10 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 4-6 shooting (67% FG) and 2-4 from three pushed her past the under despite modest 19 minutes and 15% usage, as she converted at an elite 83% true shooting clip in limited opportunities.
NYL @ MIN10–2+6.87u
  • Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTS34 vs 22.5paid over the fair numberStewart torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 11-18 from the field and 10-12 from the stripe for a 73% true shooting rate while logging a game-high 38 minutes in a blowout. Her 34% usage rate and near-perfect free-throw shooting (83%) transformed what looked like a modest scoring line into a 34-point performance.
  • Breanna Stewart Under 9.5 REB12 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart dominated the glass with 12 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy usage (34%), converting at an elite 73% TS and staying out of foul trouble (3 PF), far exceeding the 9.5 threshold.

Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.