← role_gated_board · WNBA

2026-09-24

Day by day

Latest 1 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: role_gated_board.

3–3 · 50% · −0.94u across the last 1 days

09/243–350%−0.94u3 games
IND @ MIN0–3−3.00u
  • Caitlin Clark Over 21.5 PTS2 vs 21.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three, combining for just 2 points in 18 minutes despite 30% usage, as historically poor efficiency derailed the over by 19.5 points. The 8% true shooting percentage was the primary culprit—she simply couldn't convert looks that were available within her usage rate.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS2 vs 20.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three despite 30% usage, posting an 8% true shooting percentage—a historically poor offensive night that made the 20.5-point line impossible to reach. Her 18 minutes of playing time compounded the issue, leaving her with insufficient volume to overcome the shooting collapse.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 19.5 PTS2 vs 19.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three on 30% usage, combining historically poor efficiency with limited volume to fall far short of the 19.5-point line. Her 18 minutes of action and lopsided +/- (-27) suggest Iowa was blown out early, limiting scoring opportunities.
LVA @ PHO1–0+0.65u
CHI @ WAS2–0+1.41u

Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.