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role_gated_board
51–33 over 84 priced bets · +7.4u · ROI +8.8% -10.2% to +27.9% · CLV +1.32¢ +0.9% to +1.8%
Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none. Fewer than 100 decided bets, so it is not ranked on the gallery at all.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
Latest 5 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: role_gated_board.
51–33 · 61% · +7.42u across the last 5 days
08/3022–1461%+4.06u4 games
MIN @ ATL4–8−5.27u
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese fell one assist short despite 33 minutes and heavy involvement (22% usage, 11 rebounds), as her ball-handling struggles—5 turnovers in limited playmaking opportunities—kept her from the 3+ assists threshold.
- Naz Hillmon Over 4.5 REB3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon played a full 30 minutes but couldn't secure boards despite adequate opportunity, finishing with just 3 rebounds on 18% usage and a poor 3-9 shooting line that likely limited her presence around the rim.
- Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS16 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward fell one point short despite heavy playing time (35 min), held back by inefficient shooting (6-16 FG, 2-9 3PT) that kept her TS% at 47%—well below her season average and insufficient to push her over 16.5.
- Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTS16 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's inefficient 6-16 shooting night (37.5% FG, 22% from three) left her two points shy despite logging heavy minutes, as poor shot selection and limited free-throw opportunities (2-2 on just 2 attempts) prevented her from reaching the 18.5 threshold.
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationMcBride hit the over by a single assist despite modest usage (20%), benefiting from extended floor time (37 minutes) that created enough playmaking opportunities to reach 3 dimes.
- Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS16 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHoward fell one point short despite heavy usage (35 min, 20% usage rate), undone by poor shooting efficiency—she connected on just 6-of-16 from the field (37.5% FG) and 2-of-9 from three, both well below her season norms. The 47% true shooting wasn't enough volume to reach 18 points, the realistic threshold for a profitable over.
GSV @ POR5–5−0.61u
- Kayla Thornton Under 7.5 PTS17 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 5-8 from the field and 3-5 from three while posting a 87% true shooting percentage in 25 minutes—nearly double the scoring needed to clear 7.5 points on just 19% usage.
- Megan DiLeo Over 13.5 PTS12 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberDiLeo fell just short despite efficient shooting (60% FG), limited by 24 minutes of run and a 23% usage rate in a game where the team's offensive load was distributed elsewhere. One made three-pointer instead of going 0-for-3 from deep would have cleared the line.
- Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS17 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) easily doubled the expected output, and her 25 minutes of run time at 19% usage provided the volume to cash in on her hot shooting from the field and foul line (4-4 FT).
- Kiah Stokes Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStokes was limited to just 12 minutes and recorded only 1 rebound, as her minimal playing time and 0% usage rate prevented her from approaching the 5.5 rebound threshold.
- Kaitlyn Chen Under 9.5 PTS15 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upChen torched the under with an efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) while playing a full 27 minutes, combining volume and accuracy to nearly double the 9.5-point projection.
CON @ DAL4–1+2.14u
- Awak Kuier Over 8.5 PTS4 vs 8.5no clean explanationKuier's 4 points fell well short of the 8.5-point line due to minimal offensive involvement—she posted just 7% usage and took only 2 field-goal attempts despite playing 20 minutes. Though she was efficient when she did shoot (50% FG, 100% FT), the volume simply wasn't there to reach the over.
LAS @ SEA9–0+7.81u
08/296–275%+2.14u2 games
CHI @ NYL1–1−0.43u
- Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REB9 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationStewart grabbed one extra rebound to push past the line, fueled by 26 minutes of floor time and active interior presence with 2 blocks that kept her in rebounding position despite modest 4-11 shooting.
TOR @ PHO5–1+2.57u
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas fell one rebound short despite solid floor time (22 min), held back by low volume—her 14% usage and pass-first role (12 assists) limited her opportunities on the glass in a blowout win (+38).
08/2813–572%+6.17u4 games
WAS @ LAS2–1+0.55u
- Sonia Citron Under 17.5 PTS22 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCitron exceeded the under by hitting 50% from three (4-7) and shot efficiently overall at 60% TS despite modest volume, posting 22 points in 32 minutes to easily clear 17.5.
CON @ IND3–1+1.50u
- Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationClark grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, finishing with 5 boards in 34 minutes of heavy usage (34%) while playing efficiently and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF), which kept her on the floor and in position to crash the glass.
POR @ ATL4–2+1.80u
- Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton was ice-cold from the field, shooting just 1-6 (17%) with 0-3 from three despite playing 33 minutes, and her 10% usage rate left her with minimal scoring opportunities in the game. Even with free throws, she could only muster 4 points—well short of 14.5—on a historically poor 29% true shooting night.
- Carla Leite Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeite grabbed 3 rebounds in 29 minutes, just one more than the under's threshold, as her elite scoring efficiency (9-13 FG, 88% TS) kept her heavily involved on offense rather than crashing the glass.
TOR @ LVA4–1+2.31u
- Isabelle Harrison Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHarrison came up one rebound short despite solid 24 minutes and high usage (36%), held back by limited opportunities on the glass—she grabbed only 7 boards while shooting just 5-for-14 from the field in a game where her team was outrebounded.
08/274–736%−4.30u2 games
GSV @ NYL2–4−2.59u
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's inefficiency (2-12 FG, 27% TS) and modest 26% usage rate limited her opportunities to crash the glass, while her 29 minutes—typical for her role—weren't enough to generate the necessary volume at a position where she averaged limited rebounding activity. The blowout loss (-17 +/-) also reduced garbage-time opportunities that could've pushed her toward the over.
- Pauline Astier Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier's ice-cold 2-6 shooting (33% TS) left her stuck at 4 points despite 24 minutes of run, as poor shot selection and execution prevented her from reaching the 6.5-point threshold. Her 16% usage rate compounded the issue, limiting her scoring opportunities in a game where she struggled to find rhythm offensively.
- Janelle Salaun Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5no clean explanationSalaun exceeded the rebound total despite poor offensive efficiency (3-10 FG), grabbing 7 boards in 24 minutes—a 17.5 rebound rate that capitalized on high volume opportunities and her size advantage on the glass. The under missed because she stayed active on the boards even as her scoring touch completely deserted her (30% FG).
- Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberZandalasini played a high-volume scorer's role (29% usage, 20 pts on 8-17 shooting) with limited playmaking opportunities, recording just 1 assist across 31 minutes despite solid efficiency. The offensive-focused game script didn't create natural setup opportunities for an assist-heavy performance.
WAS @ PHO2–3−1.72u
- Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 PTS4 vs 13.5no clean explanationThomas was held to just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) despite playing 32 minutes, rendering her 11% usage rate irrelevant; the offensive inefficiency—compounded by zero 3-pointers—left her stranded well short of 13.5 points.
- Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS11 vs 17.5no clean explanationAustin shot just 3-9 from the field despite playing 30 minutes, and her 17% usage rate—well below her season average—limited her scoring opportunities in a game where she didn't get enough offensive touches to reach 18+.
- Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTS11 vs 16.5no clean explanationAustin's 11 points fell short of 16.5 despite playing 30 minutes due to inefficient shooting (3-9 FG, 33%), as she relied heavily on free throws (5-5) to generate scoring rather than consistent field-goal production.
08/266–555%−0.65u2 games
TOR @ SEA3–4−1.46u
- Isabelle Harrison Under 15.5 PTS17 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison exceeded the under on volume rather than efficiency, taking 16 shots across 32 minutes (27% usage) and converting 7-of-10 free throws to reach 17 points despite shooting just 31% from the field and 0-for-4 from three. Her elevated free-throw attempts (10 FT) and heavy workload proved enough to clear 15.5 despite poor overall shooting splits.
- Isabelle Harrison Under 14.5 PTS17 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison converted 7 of 10 free throws (70%) to reach 17 points despite shooting just 31% from the field, leaning heavily on free-throw volume to exceed the 14.5-point line. Her 32 minutes and 27% usage rate provided enough offensive opportunities for her to push over despite poor overall efficiency.
- Jade Melbourne Under 6.5 AST7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne pushed one assist over the line despite modest usage (19%), as she operated efficiently in 33 minutes and found cutters consistently in a game flow that favored ball movement with her low turnover rate (2 TOs).
- Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne eclipsed the 5.5 assist line by distributing the ball at elevated volume—she posted 7 assists across 33 minutes of heavy involvement, commanding 19% usage and operating as a primary playmaker in the offense. Her efficiency across all shot types (61% TS, 5-10 FG) kept her on the floor and in rhythm to generate multiple looks for teammates.
GSV @ CON3–1+0.81u
- Kennedy Burke Over 9.5 PTS2 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurke shot just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) and missed both free-throw attempts despite 22 minutes of action, combining for only 2 points well below the 9.5 line. Her 12% usage rate and 17% true shooting percentage indicate she was both limited in touches and inefficient when she did get the ball.
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.