NBA · Mar 17 gameAll props Full sheet

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks

FinalDEN 105 – DAL 107Page updated 13:52 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 10 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 48.5 → 34 actual

Dallas Mavericks

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

blocks 1.5 → 1 actual

Dereck Lively II · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 8 actual

Kyrie Irving · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 9 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 11 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DEN expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 231.5 points · odds to win: DEN 1.96, DAL 1.94

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sun 19:35 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 13:52 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 249 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 5 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Kyrie Irving · assists 4.5 → 9 · 4.5 above the line · played 39.6 min · no final price

P.J. Washington · rebounds 5.5 → 11 · 5.5 above the line · played 30.8 min · no final price

Dereck Lively II · rebounds 4.5 → 8 · 3.5 above the line · played 23.1 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 19.2 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.5 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · blocks 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · points + rebounds + assists 48.5 → 34 · 14.5 below the line · played 38.5 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DAL vs DEN · last 24 games · DAL leads · DAL record 12–12 · average score 112.2–113.2 · DAL has lost by 1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Mar · DAL 135 at DEN 142DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DEN expected to win by 1, expected total 231.5 (Sun 19:35 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 19:35 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 43

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 81 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 163 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 274 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 281 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 284 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 291 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 294 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 302 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 306 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 306 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 312 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 382 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (blocks)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 314 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 788 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 388 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 829 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 416 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 423 ms

odds player timeline (blocks)ok 200 · 674 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 730 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 738 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 745 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 789 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 828 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 950 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.