NBA · Apr 21 gameAll props Full sheet

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

FinalIND 94 – MIL 109Page updated 19:08 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

Ben Sheppard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 13 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 10 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · minutes unknown

assists 10.5 → 8 actual

Milwaukee Bucks

Myles Turner · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

IND expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 230 points · odds to win: IND 1.85, MIL 2.07

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sun 23:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 19:08 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

IND had 7 days off before this game · MIL had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 270 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Ben Sheppard · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 9.2 min · no final price

Myles Turner · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 32.5 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · rebounds 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 40.2 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 13.5 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.8 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · assists 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 37.7 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · points 11.5 → 10 · 1.5 below the line · played 18.3 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIL vs IND · last 38 games · MIL leads · MIL record 24–14 · average score 120.2–115.4 · MIL has won by 4.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Mar · IND 123 at MIL 134MIL won

6 Feb · IND 99 at MIL 105MIL won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 1.5, expected total 230 (Sun 23:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 23:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds games/date (2024-04-20)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-18)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-16)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-11)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-10)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-09)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-07)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 348 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 351 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 359 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-19)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 370 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-17)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 375 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-08)ok 200 · 381 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-12)ok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 388 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 395 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-13)ok 200 · 402 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-14)ok 200 · 406 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 407 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-15)ok 200 · 412 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 418 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 430 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 434 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 460 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 94 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 581 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 924 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1047 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 415 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 467 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1049 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1110 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1152 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1380 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1382 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1383 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1382 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1389 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.