NBA · Final · Playoffs round 2, game 3 · series tied 1–1updated 08:09 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks

at Dallas Mavericks

DAL expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 217.5 points · odds to win: OKC 2.07, DAL 1.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 19:25 UTC

OKC 101 – DAL 105

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, DAL = Dallas Mavericks.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

4 players checked · 2 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 5 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying DAL

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 6 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Jaylin Williams · Out · low back spasms (back) · listed out, then played

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Dallas Mavericksplaying OKC

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

blocks 1.5 → 1 actual

Kyrie Irving · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 7 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual

Dereck Lively II · Out · right foot surgery (foot) · listed out, then played

rebounds 5.5 → 8 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 08:09 UTC

Who is out

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 277 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 14.2 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 35 min · no final price

P.J. Washington · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 40.2 min · no final price

Dereck Lively II · rebounds 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.2 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.3 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · blocks 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.5 min · no final price

Kyrie Irving · assists 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 40.8 min · no final price

Jaylin Williams · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 13.2 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 42 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs OKC · last 29 games · DAL leads · DAL record 15–14 · average score 108.7–109.0 · DAL has lost by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Oct · OKC 96 at DAL 120DAL won

1 Mar · OKC 100 at DAL 87DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up104.2 points · 44.8 rebounds · 24.4 assists · 32.6% from three-point range

DAL gives up109.1 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.5 assists · 30.6% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

OKC gives up 104.2 points a game · 2nd of 30 · league average 113.4−9.2 vs average

DAL gives up 109.1 points a game · 9th of 30 · league average 113.4−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 2, expected total 217.5 (Sat 19:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 19:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-08)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-04)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 17 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 18 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-05)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-10)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-03)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-09)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-29)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-07)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-06)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-01)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-02)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-28)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-30)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 37 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-27)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 45 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 49 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 6 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 136 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 171 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (blocks)failed 503 · 146 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 147 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 149 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 147 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 152 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (blocks)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 219 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 542 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.