NBA · May 13 gameAll props Full sheet

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

FinalOKC 100 – DAL 96Page updated 07:57 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 10 availability alerts

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 0.5 → 2 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Jaylin Williams · Out · low back spasms (back) · listed out, then played

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Dallas Mavericks

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 8 actual

Kyrie Irving · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual

Dereck Lively II · Out · right foot surgery (foot) · listed out, then played

rebounds 6.5 → 6 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DAL expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 215 points · odds to win: OKC 2.06, DAL 1.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 01:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 07:57 UTC

Who is out

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 258 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 0.5 → 2 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.6 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 41.8 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 40.8 min · no final price

Kyrie Irving · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 40.6 min · no final price

P.J. Washington · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 41.2 min · no final price

Jaylin Williams · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 10.2 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 39.7 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · rebounds 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 22.7 min · no final price

Dereck Lively II · rebounds 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DAL vs OKC · last 29 games · DAL leads · DAL record 15–14 · average score 108.7–109.0 · DAL has lost by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Oct · OKC 96 at DAL 120DAL won

1 Mar · OKC 100 at DAL 87DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up104.2 points · 44.8 rebounds · 24.4 assists · 32.6% from three-point range

DAL gives up109.1 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.5 assists · 30.6% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

OKC gives up 104.2 points a game · 2nd of 30 · league average 113.4−9.2 vs average

DAL gives up 109.1 points a game · 9th of 30 · league average 113.4−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 215 (Tue 01:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 01:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds games/date (2024-05-08)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-04)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-05)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 40 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-07)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-10)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-06)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-09)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-11)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-12)ok 200 · 51 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 50 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 75 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 132 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 135 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 172 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-02)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-29)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-03)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-30)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-01)ok 200 · 235 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 237 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 239 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 256 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 317 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 531 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 226 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 227 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 229 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 229 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 230 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 357 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 421 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 422 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 967 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 442 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 451 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 455 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 465 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 472 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 475 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 476 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 618 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 817 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.