NBA · May 22 gameAll props Full sheet

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves

FinalDAL 108 – MIN 105Page updated 07:57 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 6 availability alerts

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Out Edwards · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · MIN

Out DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · MIN

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Out Edwards · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · MIN

Out DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · MIN

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Dallas Mavericks

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 9 actual

Kyrie Irving · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

steals 1.5 → 0 actual

Dereck Lively II · Out · right foot surgery (foot) · listed out, then played

blocks 1.5 → 2 actual

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 3 actual

Rudy Gobert · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 1 actual

Anthony Edwards · Out · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · listed out, then played

points 27.5 → 19 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIN expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 207 points · odds to win: DAL 2.76, MIN 1.51

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 00:30 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 07:57 UTC

Who is out

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Out Edwards · right knee arthroscopy (knee) · MIN

Out DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · MIN

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 250 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

P.J. Washington · steals 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 40.8 min · no final price

Jaden McDaniels · assists 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 39.3 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · rebounds 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 21.1 min · no final price

Dereck Lively II · blocks 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.5 min · no final price

Rudy Gobert · assists 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.6 min · no final price

Anthony Edwards · points 27.5 → 19 · 8.5 below the line · played 40.7 min · no final price

Kyrie Irving · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 40.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIN vs DAL · last 27 games · MIN leads · MIN record 15–12 · average score 112.8–109.3 · MIN has won by 3.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Mar · MIN 124 at DAL 94MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up109.1 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.5 assists · 30.6% from three-point range

MIN gives up107.0 points · 43.2 rebounds · 24.0 assists · 32.0% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 109.1 points a game · 9th of 30 · league average 113.4−4.3 vs average

MIN gives up 107.0 points a game · 6th of 30 · league average 113.4−6.4 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds games/date (2024-05-20)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-21)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-17)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-18)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-16)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-08)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 21 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-15)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-19)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-14)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-13)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-09)ok 200 · 24 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-10)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-11)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-12)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 27 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 102 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 117 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 117 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 128 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 32 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 99 ms

odds player timeline (steals)failed 503 · 110 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 110 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 111 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 113 ms

odds player timeline (blocks)failed 503 · 113 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (blocks)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (steals)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 250 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.