NBA · Mar 27 gameAll props Full sheet

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder

FinalMEM 104 – OKC 125Page updated 00:54 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 10 availability alerts

Out Post · concussion (concussion) · MEM

Out Saunders · right knee surgery (knee) · MEM

Out Jr. · lumbar disc herniation · MEM

Out Mitchell · left ankle sprain (ankle) · OKC

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right knee surgery (knee) · OKC

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Post · concussion (concussion) · MEM

Out Saunders · right knee surgery (knee) · MEM

Out Jr. · lumbar disc herniation · MEM

Out Mitchell · left ankle sprain (ankle) · OKC

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right knee surgery (knee) · OKC

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Memphis Grizzlies

Jaylen Wells · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Zach Edey · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 4 actual

Scotty Pippen Jr. · Out · lumbar disc herniation · listed out, then played

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Oklahoma City Thunder

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 6 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 24.5 → 33 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 32.5 → 37 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

points 16.5 → 4 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Jaylin Williams · Out · low back spasms (back) · listed out, then played

points 4.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

OKC expected to win by about 11 · both teams together expected to score about 237 points · odds to win: MEM 5.33, OKC 1.18

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 23:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 00:54 UTC

Who is out

Out Post · concussion (concussion) · MEM

Out Saunders · right knee surgery (knee) · MEM

Out Jr. · lumbar disc herniation · MEM

Out Mitchell · left ankle sprain (ankle) · OKC

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right knee surgery (knee) · OKC

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 220 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Chet Holmgren · points 16.5 → 4 · 12.5 below the line · played 24.9 min · no final price

Scotty Pippen Jr. · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 31.4 min · no final price

Zach Edey · rebounds 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 17 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · points + rebounds + assists 24.5 → 33 · 8.5 above the line · played 29.5 min · no final price

Jaylen Wells · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.2 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.2 min · no final price

Jaylin Williams · points 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 7.7 min · no final price

Alex Caruso · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 10.2 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.6 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 32.5 → 37 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

OKC vs MEM · last 28 games · OKC leads · OKC record 20–8 · average score 115.0–110.3 · OKC has won by 4.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

6 Nov · OKC 128 at MEM 97OKC won

What each defense gives up per game

MEM gives up110.8 points · 41.9 rebounds · 24.1 assists · 32.9% from three-point range

OKC gives up105.9 points · 44.7 rebounds · 24.6 assists · 33.1% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MEM gives up 110.8 points a game · 11th of 30 · league average 113.3−2.5 vs average

OKC gives up 105.9 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.4 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 49 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 53 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 157 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 165 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 183 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 174 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 207 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 217 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 117 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 643 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 707 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 210 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 212 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 247 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 267 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 285 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 346 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 719 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.