NBA · Apr 19 gameAll props Full sheet

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

FinalMIL 98 – IND 117Page updated 22:53 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 6 availability alerts

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Milwaukee Bucks

AJ Green · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Gary Trent Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 14 actual

Kyle Kuzma · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 0 actual

Ryan Rollins · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Myles Turner · Out · rest · listed out, then played

3-pointers 2.5 → 4 actual

Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 7 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 26 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 30.5 → 34 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 11 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · Out · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · listed out, then played

points 19.5 → 10 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

IND expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 227 points · odds to win: MIL 3.00, IND 1.44

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 16:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 22:53 UTC

Who is out

Out Turner · rest · MIL

May not play Herro · right knee contusion (knee) · MIL

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 236 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 7 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

AJ Green · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.9 min · no final price

Kyle Kuzma · points 12.5 → 0 · 12.5 below the line · played 21.6 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · points 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 15.4 min · no final price

Myles Turner · 3-pointers 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.1 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · points 19.5 → 10 · 9.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · no final price

Gary Trent Jr. · points 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 26.9 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.4 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 26 · 7.5 above the line · played 28.6 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 14.8 min · no final price

Ryan Rollins · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 18.6 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · points + rebounds + assists 30.5 → 34 · 3.5 above the line · played 32.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

IND vs MIL · last 39 games · MIL leads · IND record 14–25 · average score 115.1–119.9 · IND has lost by 4.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Oct · IND 102 at MIL 110IND lost

16 Oct · MIL 128 at IND 127IND lost

15 Mar · IND 123 at MIL 134IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIL gives up121.2 points · 48.9 rebounds · 27.8 assists · 35.7% from three-point range

IND gives up115.2 points · 47.5 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 35.9% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIL gives up 121.2 points a game · 28th of 30 · league average 113.3+7.9 vs average

IND gives up 115.2 points a game · 20th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 234 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 269 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-06)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-05)ok 200 · 290 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 299 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 305 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 332 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 343 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 390 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 398 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 406 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 412 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 419 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 432 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 166 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 615 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3664 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 305 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 308 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 309 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 321 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 383 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 382 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 400 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 400 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 425 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 444 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 449 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 467 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.