NBA · May 4 gameAll props Full sheet

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers

FinalIND 121 – CLE 112Page updated 20:45 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 9 availability alerts

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 17 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 23 actual

Jarace Walker · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 2 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 17 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · Out · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · listed out, then played

points + rebounds + assists 32.5 → 38 actual

Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 39.5 → 42 actual

Evan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 20 actual

Jarrett Allen · minutes unknown

rebounds 10.5 → 5 actual

Sam Merrill · Out · right elbow injury management (elbow) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 20:45 UTC

Who is out

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 308 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Andrew Nembhard · points 11.5 → 23 · 11.5 above the line · played 37.1 min · no final price

Jarrett Allen · rebounds 10.5 → 5 · 5.5 below the line · played 30.1 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.3 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · points 12.5 → 17 · 4.5 above the line · played 24.6 min · no final price

Jarace Walker · points 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 8.8 min · no final price

Sam Merrill · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.8 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · points + rebounds + assists 32.5 → 38 · 5.5 above the line · played 36.2 min · no final price

Evan Mobley · points 17.5 → 20 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.8 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.7 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 14.7 min · no final price

Donovan Mitchell · points + rebounds + assists 39.5 → 42 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.7 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CLE vs IND · last 31 games · CLE leads · CLE record 16–15 · average score 114.0–113.3 · CLE has won by 0.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · IND 108 at CLE 117CLE won

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up115.2 points · 47.5 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 35.9% from three-point range

CLE gives up115.0 points · 46.4 rebounds · 26.2 assists · 35.5% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 115.2 points a game · 20th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.9 vs average

CLE gives up 115.0 points a game · 19th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 129 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 154 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 155 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 158 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 186 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 245 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 255 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 281 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 283 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 291 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 140 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 297 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 270 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 295 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 597 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 296 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 305 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 306 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 307 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 307 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 308 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 305 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 304 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 435 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 492 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.