NBA · Final · Playoffs round 4, game 4 · IND leads 2–1updated 07:10 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers

at Indiana Pacers

OKC expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 228 points · odds to win: OKC 1.43, IND 3.02

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 00:25 UTC

OKC 111 – IND 104

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, IND = Indiana Pacers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 3 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying IND

Aaron Wiggins · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 1 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 0 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 2 actual

Chet Holmgren · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 1 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 3 actual

Isaiah Joe · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 0 actual

Jalen Williams · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Luguentz Dort · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 0 actual

Indiana Pacersplaying OKC

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 9 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

Ben Sheppard · minutes unknown

points 2.5 → 3 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 8 actual

What could go wrong

updated 07:10 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

OKC had 119 days off before this game · IND had 167 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 306 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

15 other players with a posted line

Alex Caruso · assists 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.4 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · assists 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 21.2 min · no final price

Isaiah Joe · points 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 4.6 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 40.1 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · rebounds 4.5 → 9 · 4.5 above the line · played 30 min · no final price

Aaron Wiggins · points 5.5 → 1 · 4.5 below the line · played 8.2 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.6 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 35.9 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 28.8 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 35 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · assists 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 35.8 min · no final price

Ben Sheppard · points 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 11.6 min · no final price

Luguentz Dort · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.6 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 17.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs OKC · last 20 games · IND leads · IND record 11–9 · average score 116.0–113.7 · IND has won by 2.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Jan · IND 117 at OKC 114IND won

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up107.9 points · 44.6 rebounds · 24.9 assists · 36.7% from three-point range

IND gives up120.4 points · 46.7 rebounds · 26.4 assists · 35.5% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

OKC gives up 107.9 points a game · 2nd of 30 · league average 115.3−7.4 vs average

IND gives up 120.4 points a game · 25th of 30 · league average 115.3+5.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 6, expected total 228 (Sat 00:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 00:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-12)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-11)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-09)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-08)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-07)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 127 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 144 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 219 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-10)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-31)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-03)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-05)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-01)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 252 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-30)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-02)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 256 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-04)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 310 ms

sds games/date (2025-06-06)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 355 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 363 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 47 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 486 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 770 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 676 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 675 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 676 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 737 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 739 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 865 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 874 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 884 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 936 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.