NBA · Finalupdated 17:26 UTC

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat

at Miami Heat

No game odds posted yet

ATL 127 – MIA 115

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Hawks, MIA = Miami Heat.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Hawksplaying MIA

CJ McCollum · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 6 actual

Corey Kispert · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 13 actual

Dyson Daniels · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 5 actual

Jalen Johnson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Mouhamed Gueye · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 7 actual

Miami Heatplaying ATL

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 1 actual

Dru Smith · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 1 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

Simone Fontecchio · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

What could go wrong

updated 17:26 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 184 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

CJ McCollum · 3-pointers 2.5 → 6 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Jalen Johnson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.95

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · assists 3.5 → 7 · 3.5 above the line · played 31.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Bam Adebayo · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.05

Davion Mitchell · rebounds 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.72

Dru Smith · rebounds 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 18.6 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.17

Corey Kispert · points 8.5 → 13 · 4.5 above the line · played 27.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Nikola Jović · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 7.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.87

Simone Fontecchio · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Mouhamed Gueye · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.7 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80

Dyson Daniels · assists 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Pelle Larsson · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIA vs ATL · last 32 games · MIA leads · MIA record 22–9 · average score 110.8–104.1 · MIA has won by 6.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Apr · ATL 117 at MIA 143MIA won

20 Feb · MIA 128 at ATL 97MIA won

3 Feb · ATL 127 at MIA 115MIA lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 12 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 85 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 89 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 93 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 97 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 100 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 104 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 3 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 117 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 118 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 85 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 835 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 879 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1776 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1123 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1286 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1286 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1353 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1355 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1361 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1366 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1529 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1528 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1528 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1567 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.