NBA · Feb 28 gameAll props Full sheet

Houston Rockets at Miami Heat

FinalHOU 105 – MIA 115Page updated 12:23 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 3 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

Clint Capela · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Kevin Durant · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Reed Sheppard · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 11 actual

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 11 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 5 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 20 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

HOU expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 226 points · odds to win: HOU 1.76, MIA 2.20

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 20:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 12:23 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 252 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Pelle Larsson · points 11.5 → 20 · 8.5 above the line · played 34.6 min · no final price

Tari Eason · rebounds 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.8 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · assists 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Clint Capela · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 13.1 min · no final price

Andrew Wiggins · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 31 min · no final price

Kevin Durant · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · rebounds 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 35 min · no final price

Reed Sheppard · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.8 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 39 min · no final price

Davion Mitchell · assists 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 25 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIA vs HOU · last 14 games · MIA leads · MIA record 11–3 · average score 112.9–104.9 · MIA has won by 8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Mar · MIA 122 at HOU 123MIA lost

28 Feb · HOU 105 at MIA 115MIA won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had HOU expected to win by 2, expected total 226 (Sat 20:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 20:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 15 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 19 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 28 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 100 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 102 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 107 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 121 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 122 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 123 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 135 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 115 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 385 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 532 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 534 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 463 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 475 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 477 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 477 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 479 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 478 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 480 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 679 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 687 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.