NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 11:26 UTC

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers

at Los Angeles Lakers

HOU expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 207.5 points · odds to win: HOU 1.45, LAL 2.85

Game odds from 9 bookmakers, Tue 04:57 UTC

HOU 98 – LAL 107

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: HOU = Houston Rockets, LAL = Los Angeles Lakers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

9 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Houston Rocketsplaying LAL

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 17 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 3 actual

Kevin Durant · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → no final stat available

Marcus Smart · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 8 actual

Reed Sheppard · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 8 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Los Angeles Lakersplaying HOU

Jake LaRavia · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Jarred Vanderbilt · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 3 actual

What could go wrong

updated 11:26 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 362 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Marcus Smart · assists 3.5 → 8 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.50, Under 1.50

Reed Sheppard · assists 3.5 → 8 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.63, Under 2.20

Jake LaRavia · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 18.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Tari Eason · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Jabari Smith Jr. · 3-pointers 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 43 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Jarred Vanderbilt · points 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36

Alperen Sengun · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 36 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Amen Thompson · points 18.5 → 17 · 1.5 below the line · played 43.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.75, Under 1.42

Kevin Durant · rebounds 5.5 → no final stat available · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAL vs HOU · last 33 games · LAL leads · LAL record 23–10 · average score 109.9–106.8 · LAL has won by 3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 May · LAL 98 at HOU 78LAL won

29 Apr · HOU 99 at LAL 93LAL lost

26 Apr · LAL 96 at HOU 115LAL lost

24 Apr · LAL 112 at HOU 108LAL won

21 Apr · HOU 94 at LAL 101LAL won

18 Apr · HOU 98 at LAL 107LAL won

18 Mar · LAL 124 at HOU 116LAL won

16 Mar · LAL 100 at HOU 92LAL won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-11)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-10)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-09)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-08)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-07)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-06)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-05)ok 200 · 171 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 179 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 183 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 186 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 369 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 374 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 381 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 395 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 404 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-04)ok 200 · 408 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 418 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 427 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 427 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 434 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 258 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 826 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1554 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1980 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 225 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 785 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 861 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 861 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 861 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 865 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 861 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 866 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 863 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 867 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.