WNBA · Sep 29 gameAll props Full sheet

Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever

FinalLVA 89 – IND 99Page updated 23:48 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 6 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

6Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

Out Evans · right knee · LVA

Out Harris · left leg · IND

Wilson, Young, Hull, Cunningham have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Makayla TimpsonOver 13.5 points + rebounds

LostActual 10

Posted odds2.40Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Makayla’s points + rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.40. Last price before tip: 2.00.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Aliyah BostonUnder 14.5 points

LostActual 22

Posted odds2.27

Caitlin ClarkOver 36.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 49

Posted odds2.15

A'ja WilsonUnder 41.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 33

Posted odds2.15

A'ja WilsonOver 29.5 points

LostActual 22

Posted odds2.15

A'ja WilsonUnder 38.5 points + rebounds

WonActual 31

Posted odds2.14

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Evans · right knee · LVA

Out Harris · left leg · IND

Players and minutes21 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 21 rostered players. 6 published picks use separate saved records.

Las Vegas Aces

10 players · no line in this feed

A'ja Wilson33 min · source estimate

Jackie Young33 min · source estimate

Chelsea Gray32 min · source estimate

Jewell Loyd29 min · source estimate

Stephanie Talbot25 min · source estimate

Brianna Turner19 min · source estimate

Mai Yamamoto12 min · source estimate

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus10 min · source estimate

Kierstan Bell5 min · source estimate

Justine Pissott2 min · source estimate

Indiana Fever

11 players · no line in this feed

Caitlin Clark34 min · source estimate

Kelsey Mitchell34 min · source estimate

Aliyah Boston28 min · source estimate

Makayla Timpson28 min · source estimate

Lexie Hull18 min · source estimate

Sophie Cunningham18 min · source estimate

Myisha Hines-Allen14 min · source estimate

Monique Billings12 min · source estimate

Raven Johnson8 min · source estimate

Mercedes Russell5 min · source estimate

Grace VanSlooten1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 23:48 UTC

Who is out

VanSlooten · did not play last game

Russell · did not play last game

Out Evans · right knee · LVA

Out Harris · left leg · IND

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 22:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Wilson, Young, Hull, Cunningham have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 31 days off before this game · IND had 39 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 6 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Russell out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 6 picks won3 won, 3 lost · +0.44 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.7% higher than the last before the start · 8 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Thu 22:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

IND vs LVA · last 24 games · LVA leads · IND record 7–17 · average score 82.0–86.0 · IND has lost by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94IND lost

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99IND won

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102IND lost

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84IND lost

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75IND won

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68IND won

30 Sep · IND 98 at LVA 107IND lost

28 Sep · LVA 83 at IND 90IND won

26 Sep · LVA 84 at IND 72IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 1, expected total 183.5 (Mon 05:44 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 1, expected total 183 (Tue 20:57 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 8

Makayla Timpson · O 13.5 pr+140value_edge_pct +22.29 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Aliyah Boston · U 14.5 points+127value_edge_pct +15.20 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Caitlin Clark · O 36.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +9.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

A'ja Wilson · U 41.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +9.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

A'ja Wilson · O 29.5 points+115value_edge_pct +8.93 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

A'ja Wilson · U 38.5 pr+114value_edge_pct +8.93 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Aliyah Boston · O 16.5 points+120value_edge_pct +8.63 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 16

A'ja Wilson · U 27.5 points+120value_edge_pct +7.91 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 8

Makayla Timpson Over 13.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +140 → close +100 · CLV +8.3¢ · bet_clv:2022884 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 10 · 9.2 min · bench · excused

Caitlin Clark Over 36.5 PRAWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close −118 · CLV +7.6¢ · bet_clv:2022883 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 49 · 33.3 min · started

A'ja Wilson Under 41.5 PRAWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close −114 · CLV +6.8¢ · bet_clv:2011964 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 33 · 34.1 min · started

A'ja Wilson Under 38.5 PRWIN +1.14ubet +114 → close −104 · CLV +4.3¢ · bet_clv:2011963 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.9% · actual 31 · 34.1 min · started

Aliyah Boston Over 16.5 PTSWIN +1.20ubet +120 → close −110 · CLV +6.9¢ · bet_clv:2008584 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · actual 22 · 29.9 min · started

A'ja Wilson Over 29.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −103 · CLV +4.2¢ · bet_clv:2011962 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 22 · 34.1 min · started

Aliyah Boston Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +127 → close −113 · CLV +9.0¢ · bet_clv:2008583 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 22 · 29.9 min · started

A'ja Wilson Under 27.5 PTSWIN +1.20ubet +120 → close −108 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:2008582 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · actual 22 · 34.1 min · started

Data fetches · 37

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 89 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 241 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 268 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 269 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 267 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 283 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 294 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 311 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 55 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 422 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 426 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 156 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 165 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 175 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 185 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 186 ms

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