WNBA · Sep 29 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty

FinalMIN 71 – NYL 87Page updated 00:16 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 13 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

13Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

McDonald, Bibby, Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Kayla McBrideOver 3.5 rebounds

LostActual 3

Posted odds2.64Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Kayla’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.64. Last price before tip: 2.20.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 1.90 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Napheesa CollierUnder 17.5 points

WonActual 14

Posted odds2.56

Breanna StewartOver 24.5 points

LostActual 21

Posted odds2.47

Leonie FiebichUnder 7.5 points

WonActual 7

Posted odds2.33

Pauline AstierUnder 14.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 12

Posted odds2.29

Leonie FiebichUnder 5.5 rebounds + assists

WonActual 4

Posted odds2.27

Natasha HowardOver 11.5 points

LostActual 2

Posted odds2.23

Leonie FiebichUnder 11.5 points + rebounds

WonActual 10

Posted odds2.22

Natasha HowardOver 14.5 points + assists

LostActual 3

Posted odds2.22

Natasha HowardOver 20.5 points + rebounds + assists

LostActual 8

Posted odds2.15

Breanna StewartOver 37.5 points + rebounds + assists

LostActual 30

Posted odds2.15

Courtney WilliamsUnder 20.5 points + rebounds + assists

LostActual 31

Posted odds2.13

Leonie FiebichUnder 14.5 points + rebounds + assists

WonActual 11

Posted odds2.13

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Players and minutes22 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 22 rostered players. 13 published picks use separate saved records.

Minnesota Lynx

10 players · no line in this feed

Olivia Miles34 min · source estimate

Napheesa Collier33 min · source estimate

Kayla McBride32 min · source estimate

Courtney Williams31 min · source estimate

Natasha Howard28 min · source estimate

Dorka Juhasz11 min · source estimate

Maya Caldwell10 min · source estimate

Antonia Delaere3 min · source estimate

Aari McDonald2 min · source estimate

Chloe Bibby2 min · source estimate

New York Liberty

12 players · no line in this feed

Breanna Stewart32 min · source estimate

Sabrina Ionescu30 min · source estimate

Jonquel Jones29 min · source estimate

Leonie Fiebich24 min · source estimate

Pauline Astier23 min · source estimate

Rebecca Allen23 min · source estimate

Marine Johannes15 min · source estimate

Han Xu13 min · source estimate

Rebekah Gardner8 min · source estimate

Anneli Maley1 min · source estimate

Marine Fauthoux1 min · source estimate

Raquel Carrera1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 00:16 UTC

Who is out

Maley · did not play last game

Fauthoux · did not play last game

Carrera · did not play last game

Delaere · did not play last game

Bibby · did not play last game

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 00:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

McDonald, Bibby, Maley, Fauthoux, Carrera have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 42 days off before this game · NYL had 32 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 13 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Maley out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Delaere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out · did not play

5 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 6 of 13 picks won6 won, 7 lost · +0.80 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.9% higher than the last before the start · 15 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Fri 00:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

NYL vs MIN · last 23 games · NYL leads · NYL record 12–11 · average score 83.4–79.8 · NYL has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87NYL won

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75NYL won

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81NYL won

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90NYL lost

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 3, expected total 172.5 (Mon 04:08 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 3.5, expected total 173.5 (Tue 23:43 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 15

Napheesa Collier · U 17.5 points+156value_edge_pct +21.54 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Breanna Stewart · O 24.5 points+147value_edge_pct +20.11 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Leonie Fiebich · U 5.5 ra+127value_edge_pct +15.66 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Pauline Astier · U 14.5 pra+129value_edge_pct +13.52 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Leonie Fiebich · U 11.5 pr+122value_edge_pct +13.11 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Kayla McBride · O 3.5 rebounds+164value_edge_pct +12.45 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Natasha Howard · O 14.5 pa+122value_edge_pct +10.70 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Leonie Fiebich · U 7.5 points+133value_edge_pct +9.75 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Natasha Howard · O 20.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +9.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Natasha Howard · O 11.5 points+123value_edge_pct +7.72 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 18

Breanna Stewart · O 37.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +7.63 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Courtney Williams · U 20.5 pra+113value_edge_pct +7.24 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Leonie Fiebich · U 14.5 pra+113value_edge_pct +6.63 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 21

Breanna Stewart · U 24.5 points−127value_edge_pct +5.96 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 22

Napheesa Collier · U 19.5 points−130value_edge_pct +3.31 · kelly 1.10u · price_check unchecked · rank 23

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 15

Courtney Williams Under 20.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +113 → close −102 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:2009419 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 31 · 37.9 min · started

Kayla McBride Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +164 → close +120 · CLV +7.6¢ · bet_clv:2009420 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 38.8 min · started

Breanna Stewart Over 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +147 → close −104 · CLV +10.5¢ · bet_clv:2023721 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 21 · 40.0 min · started

Natasha Howard Over 14.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close −106 · CLV +6.4¢ · bet_clv:2028504 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 15.6 min · bench

Natasha Howard Over 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +123 → close −102 · CLV +5.7¢ · bet_clv:2009422 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 15.6 min · bench

Natasha Howard Over 20.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −109 · CLV +5.6¢ · bet_clv:2028503 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 15.6 min · bench

Leonie Fiebich Under 11.5 PRWIN +1.22ubet +122 → close −114 · CLV +8.2¢ · bet_clv:2028498 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 10 · 29.3 min · started

Breanna Stewart Over 37.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −112 · CLV +6.3¢ · bet_clv:2028494 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 30 · 40.0 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Under 14.5 PRAWIN +1.13ubet +113 → close −108 · CLV +5.0¢ · bet_clv:2023724 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · actual 11 · 29.3 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Under 5.5 RAWIN +1.27ubet +127 → close −106 · CLV +7.4¢ · bet_clv:2018474 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 4 · 29.3 min · started

Pauline Astier Under 14.5 PRAWIN +1.29ubet +129 → close +102 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:2012771 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.6% · actual 12 · 33.2 min · started

Leonie Fiebich Under 7.5 PTSWIN +1.33ubet +133 · bet_clv:2012770 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.1% · actual 7 · 29.3 min · started

Breanna Stewart Under 24.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:2028495 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 21 · 40.0 min · startedStewart's efficient free-throw shooting (9-9) kept her close to the line, but a 6-16 field goal performance (37.5%) and 0-4 night from three limited her scoring despite 40 minutes of play. The under hit as her shot selection and accuracy fell short of the 24.5 threshold despite high usage.

Napheesa Collier Under 17.5 PTSWIN +1.56ubet +156 → close +102 · CLV +10.4¢ · bet_clv:2009421 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.5% · actual 14 · 33.2 min · startedCollier's 44% true shooting and 6-14 field goal performance kept her grounded at 14 points despite playing all 33 available minutes, with poor efficiency—especially from three (0-5 attempts)—preventing her from reaching the over.

Napheesa Collier Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 · bet_clv:2023726 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 14 · 33.2 min · startedCollier's inefficient 6-14 shooting night (42.9 FG%) combined with a quiet 2-4 free-throw line kept her well short of 19.5 despite logging 33 minutes; she couldn't generate enough scoring volume or efficiency to hit the line even with solid usage at 25%.

Data fetches · 41

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 183 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 182 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 199 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 294 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 360 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 360 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 367 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 450 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 282 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 283 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 286 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 287 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 291 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 293 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 299 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 301 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 302 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 304 ms

odds player timeline (pa)failed 503 · 312 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 533 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1583 ms

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