NBA · Apr 21 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

FinalMIA 94 – BOS 114Page updated 19:08 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 24 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

Boston Celtics

Derrick White · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 3 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 23 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 4 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

BOS expected to win by about 14.5 · both teams together expected to score about 210.5 points · odds to win: MIA 7.97, BOS 1.10

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sun 16:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 19:08 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

MIA had 7 days off before this game · BOS had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 264 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

6 other players with a posted line

Sam Hauser · 3-pointers 1.5 → 4 · 2.5 above the line · played 13.8 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · points 17.5 → 24 · 6.5 above the line · played 36.5 min · no final price

Nikola Jović · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.7 min · no final price

Derrick White · rebounds 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.5 min · no final price

Payton Pritchard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.2 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · points 25.5 → 23 · 2.5 below the line · played 41.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

BOS vs MIA · last 47 games · BOS leads · BOS record 28–19 · average score 110.6–105.6 · BOS has won by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Apr · BOS 147 at MIA 129BOS won

6 Feb · MIA 96 at BOS 98BOS won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had BOS expected to win by 14.5, expected total 210.5 (Sun 16:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 16:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/date (2024-04-20)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-19)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-18)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-17)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-16)ok 200 · 198 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-14)ok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-15)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-13)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-12)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-11)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-10)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-09)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-08)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-07)ok 200 · 225 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 233 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 260 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 445 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 450 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 460 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 464 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 467 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 478 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 482 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 490 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 496 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 499 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 290 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 542 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 592 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 50 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 661 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1402 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1212 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1283 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1325 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1326 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1375 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1376 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.