NBA · Apr 27 gameAll props Full sheet

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

FinalBOS 104 – MIA 84Page updated 16:28 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Boston Celtics

Derrick White · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 6 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 8 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

BOS expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 205 points · odds to win: BOS 1.25, MIA 4.34

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 22:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 16:28 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 298 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 0 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

6 other players with a posted line

Sam Hauser · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 20 min · no final price

Nikola Jović · rebounds 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.9 min · no final price

Derrick White · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.9 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · assists 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 38.8 min · no final price

Payton Pritchard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.4 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.5 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIA vs BOS · last 47 games · BOS leads · MIA record 19–28 · average score 105.6–110.6 · MIA has lost by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Apr · BOS 147 at MIA 129MIA lost

6 Feb · MIA 96 at BOS 98MIA lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had BOS expected to win by 9.5, expected total 205 (Sat 22:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 22:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/date (2024-04-21)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-16)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-20)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-17)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-14)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-25)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-24)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-23)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-15)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-19)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-22)ok 200 · 48 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 50 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-26)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 53 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 136 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-13)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 140 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 145 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-18)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 148 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 151 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 151 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 155 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 158 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 160 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 116 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 270 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 826 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 943 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 259 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 544 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 546 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 564 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 564 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 644 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 647 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.