NBA · May 11 gameAll props Full sheet

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

FinalOKC 101 – DAL 105Page updated 07:57 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 10 availability alerts

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Players and minutes9 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 6 actual

Cason Wallace · Out · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

Chet Holmgren · Out · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Jalen Williams · Out · left ankle surgery (ankle) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Jaylin Williams · Out · low back spasms (back) · listed out, then played

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Dallas Mavericks

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

blocks 1.5 → 1 actual

Kyrie Irving · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 7 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual

Dereck Lively II · Out · right foot surgery (foot) · listed out, then played

rebounds 5.5 → 8 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DAL expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 217.5 points · odds to win: OKC 2.07, DAL 1.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 19:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 07:57 UTC

Who is out

Out Wallace · left shoulder surgery (shoulder) · OKC

Out Holmgren · right knee/injury recovery (knee) · OKC

Out J. Williams (OKC) · left ankle surgery (ankle)

Out J. Williams (OKC) · low back spasms (back)

Out Topić · on assignment · OKC

Out Sorber · right kneesurgery (knee) · OKC

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 277 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 5 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 14.2 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 35 min · no final price

P.J. Washington · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 40.2 min · no final price

Dereck Lively II · rebounds 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.2 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 38.3 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · blocks 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.5 min · no final price

Kyrie Irving · assists 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 40.8 min · no final price

Jaylin Williams · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 13.2 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 42 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DAL vs OKC · last 29 games · DAL leads · DAL record 15–14 · average score 108.7–109.0 · DAL has lost by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Oct · OKC 96 at DAL 120DAL won

1 Mar · OKC 100 at DAL 87DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

OKC gives up104.2 points · 44.8 rebounds · 24.4 assists · 32.6% from three-point range

DAL gives up109.1 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.5 assists · 30.6% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

OKC gives up 104.2 points a game · 2nd of 30 · league average 113.4−9.2 vs average

DAL gives up 109.1 points a game · 9th of 30 · league average 113.4−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 60

sds games/date (2024-05-08)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-05)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-04)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 30 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-09)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-10)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-02)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-30)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-27)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-29)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-06)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-01)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-28)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-07)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-03)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 70 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 119 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 175 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 185 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 230 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 245 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 263 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 196 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 39 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 549 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 120 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 123 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 124 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 135 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 136 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 136 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 137 ms

odds player timeline (blocks)failed 503 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (blocks)ok 200 · 163 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.