NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 3 · series tied 1–1updated 09:06 UTC

New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons

at Detroit Pistons

NYK expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 217 points · odds to win: NYK 1.83, DET 2.08

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 23:00 UTC

NYK 118 – DET 116

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYK = New York Knicks, DET = Detroit Pistons.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 3 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Knicksplaying DET

Jalen Brunson · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 39.5 → 46 actual

Josh Hart · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 6 actual

Karl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 36.5 → 40 actual

Mikal Bridges · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 20 actual

Miles McBride · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 3 actual

Mitchell Robinson · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 2 actual

OG Anunoby · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 22 actual

Detroit Pistonsplaying NYK

Ausar Thompson · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 7 actual

Cade Cunningham · minutes unknown

points 28.5 → 24 actual

Jalen Duren · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Tobias Harris · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 5 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:06 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYK had 105 days off before this game · DET had 132 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 222 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Tobias Harris · points 14.5 → 5 · 9.5 below the line · played 31.6 min · no final price

Josh Hart · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 40.8 min · no final price

Mitchell Robinson · points 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.6 min · no final price

Jalen Duren · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 32.4 min · no final price

Miles McBride · points 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 9.3 min · no final price

OG Anunoby · points 16.5 → 22 · 5.5 above the line · played 42.8 min · no final price

Mikal Bridges · points 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 38.8 min · no final price

Ausar Thompson · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 18 min · no final price

Jalen Brunson · points + rebounds + assists 39.5 → 46 · 6.5 above the line · played 38.7 min · no final price

Cade Cunningham · points 28.5 → 24 · 4.5 below the line · played 42.5 min · no final price

Karl-Anthony Towns · points + rebounds + assists 36.5 → 40 · 3.5 above the line · played 41.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DET vs NYK · last 27 games · NYK leads · DET record 9–18 · average score 107.1–111.4 · DET has lost by 4.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

NYK gives up108.3 points · 40.0 rebounds · 24.3 assists · 35.4% from three-point range

DET gives up108.7 points · 40.5 rebounds · 23.2 assists · 34.3% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYK gives up 108.3 points a game · 3rd of 30 · league average 115.3−7.1 vs average

DET gives up 108.7 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 115.3−6.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYK expected to win by 1.5, expected total 217 (Thu 23:00 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 23:00 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 119 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 123 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 150 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 151 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 290 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 294 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 300 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 404 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 404 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 282 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 416 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 438 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 449 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 459 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 466 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 469 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 472 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 492 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 533 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 567 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 964 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1023 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1107 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1187 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1186 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1258 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1266 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1284 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1288 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1295 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1317 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.