NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 4 · BOS leads 2–1updated 09:06 UTC

Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic

at Orlando Magic

BOS expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 199.5 points · odds to win: BOS 1.30, ORL 3.86

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 23:00 UTC

BOS 107 – ORL 98

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: BOS = Boston Celtics, ORL = Orlando Magic.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Boston Celticsplaying ORL

Derrick White · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 18 actual

Jaylen Brown · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 21 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 3 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 0 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 6 actual

Orlando Magicplaying BOS

Anthony Black · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 10 actual

Franz Wagner · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 24 actual

Jonathan Isaac · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 4 actual

Paolo Banchero · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Wendell Carter Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 9 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:06 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

BOS had 147 days off before this game · ORL had 146 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 227 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 8 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Payton Pritchard · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 26 min · no final price

Sam Hauser · points 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 18 min · no final price

Anthony Black · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 18.3 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · assists 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 42.2 min · no final price

Paolo Banchero · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 40.3 min · no final price

Derrick White · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 39.3 min · no final price

Jonathan Isaac · points 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 12.7 min · no final price

Jaylen Brown · points 19.5 → 21 · 1.5 above the line · played 41.2 min · no final price

Wendell Carter Jr. · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.8 min · no final price

Franz Wagner · points 24.5 → 24 · 0.5 below the line · played 39.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ORL vs BOS · last 26 games · BOS leads · ORL record 8–18 · average score 103.1–110.8 · ORL has lost by 7.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Apr · ORL 108 at BOS 113ORL lost

What each defense gives up per game

BOS gives up106.9 points · 41.2 rebounds · 24.5 assists · 35.8% from three-point range

ORL gives up113.8 points · 43.7 rebounds · 24.8 assists · 34.9% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

BOS gives up 106.9 points a game · 1st of 30 · league average 115.3−8.5 vs average

ORL gives up 113.8 points a game · 12th of 30 · league average 115.3−1.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had BOS expected to win by 8, expected total 199.5 (Sun 23:00 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 23:00 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 63

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 47 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 48 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 58 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 146 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 168 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 1 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 172 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 95 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 235 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 285 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 287 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 431 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 467 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 491 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 495 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 499 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 504 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 519 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 528 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 535 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 540 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 652 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 657 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 853 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1130 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 945 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 960 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 964 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 965 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 981 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1035 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1037 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1038 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1076 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.