NBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 3 · IND leads 2–0updated 19:17 UTC

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers

at Indiana Pacers

No game odds posted yet

NYK 106 – IND 100

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYK = New York Knicks, IND = Indiana Pacers.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 13 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Knicksplaying IND

Jalen Brunson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Josh Hart · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

Karl-Anthony Towns · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 24 actual

Mikal Bridges · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 15 actual

Miles McBride · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

OG Anunoby · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 16 actual

Indiana Pacersplaying NYK

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 8 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 12 actual

Ben Sheppard · Out · left meniscus surgery · listed out, then played

points 2.5 → 3 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · Out · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · listed out, then played

points + rebounds + assists 34.5 → 31 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 19:17 UTC

Who is out

Hart · likely to play · illness · NYK

May not play Towns · left sore calf (calf) · NYK

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

May not play McConnell · right hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 301 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 7 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Jalen Brunson · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.5 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · points 7.5 → 12 · 4.5 above the line · played 15.5 min · no final price

Pascal Siakam · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 35 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · points 12.5 → 8 · 4.5 below the line · played 26.4 min · no final price

Miles McBride · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 15 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 38.3 min · no final price

Ben Sheppard · points 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 17.1 min · no final price

Karl-Anthony Towns · points 21.5 → 24 · 2.5 above the line · played 33 min · no final price

Josh Hart · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 34 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · points + rebounds + assists 34.5 → 31 · 3.5 below the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Mikal Bridges · points 16.5 → 15 · 1.5 below the line · played 36.8 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 14.2 min · no final price

OG Anunoby · points 15.5 → 16 · 0.5 above the line · played 36.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs NYK · last 35 games · NYK leads · IND record 17–18 · average score 114.5–114.2 · IND has won by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Mar · IND 110 at NYK 136IND lost

13 Mar · NYK 101 at IND 92IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYK gives up102.3 points · 39.8 rebounds · 25.1 assists · 33.7% from three-point range

IND gives up115.2 points · 47.5 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 35.9% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYK gives up 102.3 points a game · 1st of 30 · league average 113.3−11.0 vs average

IND gives up 115.2 points a game · 20th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 2, expected total 224 (Mon 00:00 UTC) and had not changed it by Mon 00:00 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 72

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 19 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-24)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-18)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-22)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-19)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-23)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-20)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 24 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-15)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-21)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-17)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-16)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 31 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-14)ok 200 · 43 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-13)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-11)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-12)ok 200 · 46 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 46 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 49 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 52 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 37 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 120 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 230 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 284 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 263 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 290 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 291 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 291 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 292 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 308 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 310 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 309 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 406 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 415 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 430 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 438 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 858 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.