NBA · Jan 17 gameAll props Full sheet

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat

FinalOKC 120 – MIA 122Page updated 15:43 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Ajay Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 4 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 9 actual

Chet Holmgren · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 11 actual

Jalen Williams · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 8 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

points 31.5 → 39 actual

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 21 actual

Simone Fontecchio · minutes unknown

assists 1.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

OKC expected to win by about 11.5 · both teams together expected to score about 234.5 points · odds to win: OKC 1.20, MIA 5.06

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sun 01:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 15:43 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 287 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 1 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Nikola Jović · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.1 min · no final price

Simone Fontecchio · assists 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 17.6 min · no final price

Alex Caruso · rebounds 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 21 min · no final price

Jalen Williams · points 18.5 → 8 · 10.5 below the line · played 13.6 min · no final price

Ajay Mitchell · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.7 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 22.1 min · no final price

Andrew Wiggins · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 32.2 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · points 31.5 → 39 · 7.5 above the line · played 36.3 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · rebounds 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 32 min · no final price

Pelle Larsson · points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 21 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.5 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIA vs OKC · last 14 games · MIA leads · MIA record 8–6 · average score 110.9–108.8 · MIA has won by 2.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 11.5, expected total 234.5 (Sun 01:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 01:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 51 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 82 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 184 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 192 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 193 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 213 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 215 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 218 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 255 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 257 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 258 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 273 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 224 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 581 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 627 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 403 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 421 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 429 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 435 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 468 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 565 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 568 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 572 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 719 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 720 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 745 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 766 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 768 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 838 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 988 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.