NBA · Finalupdated 13:07 UTC

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat

at Miami Heat

No game odds posted yet

MIL 105 – MIA 112

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIL = Milwaukee Bucks, MIA = Miami Heat.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

15 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Milwaukee Bucksplaying MIA

Jaime Jaquez Jr. · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 7 actual

Kasparas Jakučionis · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Kevin Porter Jr. · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Kyle Kuzma · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 5 actual

Myles Turner · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Ousmane Dieng · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 0 actual

Ryan Rollins · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 10 actual

Tyler Herro · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → no final stat available

Miami Heatplaying MIL

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Bobby Portis Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 19 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Giannis Antetokounmpo · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 6 actual

Myron Gardner · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 6 actual

Simone Fontecchio · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

What could go wrong

updated 13:07 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 208 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

15 other players with a posted line

Kasparas Jakučionis · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 35.2 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.47

Ryan Rollins · assists 4.5 → 10 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Ousmane Dieng · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 14 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Bobby Portis Jr. · points 9.5 → 19 · 9.5 above the line · played 26.2 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.98

Davion Mitchell · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.45, Under 1.50

Pelle Larsson · assists 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 37.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.95

Jaime Jaquez Jr. · assists 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Kevin Porter Jr. · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Myron Gardner · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 9.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Kyle Kuzma · points 10.5 → 5 · 5.5 below the line · played 20.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 35 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Giannis Antetokounmpo · rebounds 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00

Myles Turner · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.63, Under 2.20

Simone Fontecchio · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 15 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Tyler Herro · points 23.5 → no final stat available · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIA vs MIL · last 38 games · MIL leads · MIA record 18–20 · average score 112.6–114.9 · MIA has lost by 2.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Mar · MIL 105 at MIA 112MIA won

24 Feb · MIA 117 at MIL 128MIA lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 64

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 37 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 125 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 126 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 128 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 134 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 134 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 168 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 169 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 183 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 191 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 208 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1231 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1263 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 273 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 450 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 455 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 463 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 464 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 467 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 470 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 480 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 482 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 512 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 518 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 522 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 528 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 596 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 618 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 617 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 647 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 648 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 648 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 653 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 649 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 652 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 669 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 692 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 698 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 712 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 720 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1005 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.