NBA · Apr 7 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

FinalMIA 95 – TOR 121Page updated 09:47 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Toronto Raptors

Collin Murray-Boyles · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 6 actual

Immanuel Quickley · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Ja'Kobe Walter · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 7 actual

Jakob Poeltl · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Jamal Shead · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 11 actual

RJ Barrett · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Scottie Barnes · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 5 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

TOR expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 240.5 points · odds to win: MIA 2.15, TOR 1.74

Game odds from 10 bookmakers · observed Tue 23:21 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 09:47 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 315 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Ja'Kobe Walter · rebounds 3.5 → 7 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.50, Under 1.50

Jamal Shead · assists 5.5 → 11 · 5.5 above the line · played 23.6 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.89

Andrew Wiggins · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56

Jakob Poeltl · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

RJ Barrett · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.83

Davion Mitchell · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.61, Under 1.46

Scottie Barnes · assists 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Immanuel Quickley · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.6 min · Fanatics odds: Over 1.61, Under 2.20

Collin Murray-Boyles · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 20 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.81

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Pelle Larsson · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.2 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

TOR vs MIA · last 26 games · TOR leads · TOR record 13–13 · average score 108.2–106.8 · TOR has won by 1.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Apr · MIA 114 at TOR 128TOR won

7 Apr · MIA 95 at TOR 121TOR won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

FanDuel first had TOR expected to win by 2.5, expected total 238.5 (Mon 17:13 UTC) and later TOR expected to win by 2.5, expected total 240.5 (Tue 23:21 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 11 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 13 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 15 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 99 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 100 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 103 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 93 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 107 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 113 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 602 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 883 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1554 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 240 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 669 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 745 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 745 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 744 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 843 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 842 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 844 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 845 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 863 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 904 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.