NBA · Finalupdated 13:17 UTC

Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers

at Portland Trail Blazers

POR expected to win by about 18.5 · both teams together expected to score about 227 points · odds to win: SAC 14.01, POR 1.04

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 00:35 UTC

SAC 110 – POR 122

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SAC = Sacramento Kings, POR = Portland Trail Blazers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Sacramento Kingsplaying POR

Maxime Raynaud · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 21 actual

Nique Clifford · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 36 actual

Precious Achiuwa · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 20.5 → 42 actual

Portland Trail Blazersplaying SAC

Deni Avdija · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 25 actual

Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 24 actual

Jrue Holiday · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 26.5 → 33 actual

Robert Williams III · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 17 actual

Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Shaedon Sharpe · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 14 actual

Toumani Camara · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 21.5 → 21 actual

What could go wrong

updated 13:17 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 90 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Precious Achiuwa · points + rebounds + assists 20.5 → 42 · 21.5 above the line · played 35 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Nique Clifford · points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 36 · 8.5 above the line · played 38.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.89

Maxime Raynaud · points 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 37.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

Jrue Holiday · points + rebounds + assists 26.5 → 33 · 6.5 above the line · played 32.5 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

Shaedon Sharpe · points + rebounds + assists 18.5 → 14 · 4.5 below the line · played 17 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.85

Robert Williams III · points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 22.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Donovan Clingan · points + rebounds + assists 27.5 → 24 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.22, Under 1.63

Deni Avdija · points 26.5 → 25 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.84

Scoot Henderson · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.1 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Toumani Camara · points + rebounds + assists 21.5 → 21 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs SAC · last 23 games · POR leads · POR record 13–10 · average score 113.0–115.1 · POR has lost by 2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Apr · SAC 110 at POR 122POR won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had POR expected to win by 18.5, expected total 227 (Mon 00:35 UTC) and had not changed it by Mon 00:35 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 192 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 216 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 216 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 222 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 236 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 243 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 243 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 247 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 253 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 258 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 101 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 697 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 899 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 459 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 463 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 514 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 631 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 642 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 643 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 647 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 659 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 678 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 701 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 761 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 776 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 822 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.