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role_gated_lineedges

852–436 over 1288 priced bets · -112.2u · ROI -8.7% -12.6% to -4.9% · CLV +1.13¢ +0.9% to +1.4%

Losing — the ROI interval sits entirely below zero.

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Day by day

Latest 14 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: role_gated_lineedges.

688–310 · 69% · −112.35u across the last 14 days · 2 voided, zero benchmark units

10/2641–1968%−10.91u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-26 →

ATL @ GSV41–19−10.91u
  • Gabby Williams Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Under 11.5 REB15 vs 11.5paid over the fair number
  • Gabby Williams Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Gabby Williams Over 14.5 PTS9 vs 14.5no clean explanation
  • Gabby Williams Over 11.5 PTS9 vs 11.5no clean explanation
  • Gabby Williams Over 9.5 PTS9 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
10/2436–1275%−3.47u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-24 →

GSV @ ATL36–12−3.47u
  • Jordin Canada Over 6.5 AST4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS8 vs 14.5no clean explanation
  • Angel Reese Over 9.5 PTS8 vs 9.5no clean explanation
  • Angel Reese Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5no clean explanation
  • Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5no clean explanation
  • Allisha Gray Over 9.5 PTS5 vs 9.5no clean explanation
10/1927–1860%−7.74u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-19 →

ATL @ GSV27–18−7.74u
  • Kayla Thornton Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton fell one rebound short despite solid playing time (19 min), held back by minimal offensive involvement (7% usage, 1-3 FG) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass and generate second-chance boards.
  • Kayla Thornton Over 3.5 PTS2 vs 3.5no clean explanationThornton shot just 1-for-3 from the field despite logging 19 minutes, a significant underperformance that kept her well short of the 3.5-point line; her 7% usage rate and 33% true shooting indicate limited offensive involvement and poor efficiency when she did touch the ball.
  • Kayla Thornton Over 4.5 PTS2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's 7% usage rate and 1-3 shooting (33% TS) left her well short of the 4.5-point line despite adequate 19-minute run; she simply didn't get enough volume or hit enough of her limited attempts to clear the threshold.
  • Gabby Williams Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams took a ball-dominant role (36% usage) but struggled to generate offense, posting a 39% true shooting and turning it over 3 times in 27 minutes, which limited her playmaking opportunities and resulted in just 1 assist.
  • Angel Reese Under 10.5 REB16 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese dominated the glass with 16 rebounds on 34 minutes and elite 72% true shooting, translating her high-volume touches (30% usage) into both scoring and rebounding opportunities that far exceeded the 10.5 line. Her 5 fouls without fouling out meant she stayed on the floor for a full game script, capturing 6 offensive rebounds that typically swing the over/under on this type of bet.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationHoward fell one assist short despite playing 28 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (2-7 FG, 13% usage) that limited her opportunity to generate playmaking chances. Her game centered on perimeter defense (6 steals) rather than ball-handling, resulting in just 2 dimes on the night.
10/1745–2069%−8.96u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-17 →

ATL @ GSV45–20−8.96u
  • Gabby Williams Under 24.5 PTS26 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWilliams hit just 36% from the field and 27% from three, but went 7-for-8 from the line and played a game-high 33 minutes with 35% usage to push past 24.5 points. The efficient free-throw shooting and high volume were enough to overcome poor shot selection and get her to 26 despite a below-average night from the floor.
  • Rhyne Howard Under 5.5 REB7 vs 5.5no clean explanationHoward grabbed 7 rebounds in 38 minutes despite shooting just 3-14 from the field, as her elevated playing time and activity on the glass—particularly on the defensive end—pushed her past the 5.5 threshold despite an inefficient offensive night.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberHillmon's playmaking evaporated despite 30 minutes on court—she recorded zero assists while turning the ball over once, suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game's flow.
  • Jordin Canada Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada played 38 minutes but shot just 3-9 from the field (33%) with a 40% true shooting percentage, falling well short of the scoring volume needed to clear 11.5 despite her high usage rate of 16%.
  • Gabby Williams Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams fell one assist short despite heavy offensive usage (35%), as she prioritized scoring (26 pts on 22 attempts) over playmaking in a game where the team got out to an early lead (+16 final margin).
  • Naz Hillmon Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationHillmon played 30 minutes but grabbed just 2 rebounds, falling one short of the 2.5 line despite solid efficiency; her 8% usage rate and limited offensive touches (4 FGA) suggest she wasn't in the primary rebounder flow on a night where the team's pace and rebounding opportunities didn't materialize for her.
10/0971–3170%−15.14u2 games

permalink to 2026-10-09 →

ATL @ NYL38–19−10.52u
  • Pauline Astier Over 1.5 REB0 vs 1.5game script — blowout or foul troubleAstier played only 8 minutes with minimal involvement (12% usage), leaving her no opportunity to accumulate the 2 rebounds needed to clear the over. Her limited court time and complete absence from the glass made the 1.5 rebound line unsustainable.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich played heavy minutes (37) but generated minimal rebounding activity, finishing with just 2 boards despite 12% usage—a reflection of her perimeter-heavy role and limited interior presence in a game where she struggled shooting (2-7 FG). The combination of low usage and her positioning kept her off the glass despite the extended run.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationFiebich played heavy minutes (37) but saw minimal rebounding opportunities, finishing with just 2 boards despite 12% usage; her 2-7 shooting kept her on the perimeter rather than crashing the glass, and three personal fouls likely made her cautious about aggressive rebounding.
  • Rhyne Howard Under 20.5 PTS21 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's efficient 7-21 shooting night (33% FG, 40% 3PT) combined with 38 minutes of heavy usage (30%) to push her just over the line at 21 points, as Atlanta leaned on her scoring in a close contest.
  • Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationJones stayed on court for all 38 minutes and seized playmaking opportunities in a high-usage game (26%), finishing one assist above the line despite modest assist volume. Her dominance in scoring (26 pts on elite 71% TS) and rebounding (14) kept her involved in the offense enough to reach 3 dimes.
  • Pauline Astier Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5game script — blowout or foul troubleAstier logged just 8 minutes with 12% usage, providing minimal opportunity to accumulate boards, and failed to secure a single rebound in that limited run.
GSV @ LVA33–12−4.62u
  • Kayla Thornton Under 14.5 PTS18 vs 14.5no clean explanationThornton exceeded the under on efficient shooting, going 5-12 from the field (41.7%) with a perfect 6-7 from the free-throw line to reach 18 points in 33 minutes despite modest 22% usage. Her 60% true shooting and high free-throw volume proved enough to clear the 14.5-point threshold.
  • Stephanie Talbot Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationTalbot's minimal 5% usage rate and 0-for-2 shooting limited her involvement on the glass, resulting in just 2 rebounds across 21 minutes—she needed at least one more board to clear the over. Her restricted role and lack of offensive touches kept her from the glass-heavy activity required to hit 3+ boards.
  • Stephanie Talbot Over 4.5 PTS0 vs 4.5no clean explanationTalbot played 21 minutes but went scoreless on 2 FG attempts and 2 three-point attempts, finishing 0-for-4 from the field with just 5% usage rate. Despite the playing time, she couldn't generate any offensive production to clear the modest 4.5-point line.
  • Tiffany Hayes Under 2.5 REB6 vs 2.5no clean explanationHayes doubled the projected rebound total with 6 boards in 22 minutes, capitalizing on extended opportunity and active rebounding effort despite shooting just 4-14 from the field.
  • Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST2 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's playmaking dried up despite heavy usage and 42 minutes on the floor, tallying just 2 assists while turning the ball over 5 times—a combination of ball-handling issues and the team's offensive struggles (evident in her -10 rating) that prevented her from facilitating at the expected rate.
  • Jackie Young Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung played 42 minutes with heavy usage (27%) but generated just 2 assists while turning the ball over 5 times, suggesting she was attacking downhill rather than facilitating, and picked up 5 fouls that limited her ability to dictate tempo. A blowout loss (-10 +/-) in which she shot inefficiently (6-16 FG) likely forced Las Vegas into isolation-heavy, low-rhythm offense rather than the ball-movement sets needed to accumulate assists.
10/0782–1981%+1.60u2 games

permalink to 2026-10-07 →

LVA @ GSV36–9−0.96u
  • Kaila Charles Under 1.5 AST2 vs 1.5no clean explanationCharles hit the Over with just 2 assists in 17 minutes—a modest volume, but enough to clear the 1.5 line despite negligible offensive production (1-3 FG, 12% usage). She stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF) and got enough floor time to record that second helper.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 25.5 PTS24 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell just short despite efficient shooting (9-16 FG, 6-6 FT) because she generated only 24 points in 36 minutes with 29% usage—she needed one more scoring possession to clear 25.5. The tight margin suggests near-elite efficiency couldn't overcome modest shot volume on the night.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS24 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell one point short despite efficient shooting (9-16 FG, 6-6 FT) because she didn't get enough volume—29% usage and 36 minutes limited her shot diet just enough to miss the over by a single point.
  • Tiffany Hayes Under 14.5 PTS21 vs 14.5no clean explanationHayes torched the under by shooting 8-8 from the free-throw line and 6-10 overall (78% TS) in just 16 minutes, combining elite efficiency with high usage (40%) to exceed the 14.5-point line despite limited playing time.
  • Jackie Young Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5no clean explanationYoung played 37 minutes but grabbed zero rebounds despite logging heavy usage (18%), suggesting she was positioned as a perimeter facilitator rather than a rebounder in this game. Five personal fouls may have also limited her ability to pursue boards aggressively near the basket.
  • Jackie Young Over 14.5 PTS14 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationYoung fell just short despite playing 37 minutes and attempting 13 shots, held back by poor 2-7 field-goal shooting (29%) that limited her to exactly 14 points. She stayed efficient from three (2-4) and the free-throw line (8-10), but the lack of makes from the floor left her one point shy of the over.
NYL @ ATL46–10+2.56u
  • Breanna Stewart Under 29.5 PTS35 vs 29.5no clean explanationStewart's elite efficiency—11-21 FG (52%) and 11-13 FT (85%)—combined with 43 minutes and 32% usage to propel her 5.5 points over the line. Her 66% true shooting was well above her season average, and the high volume of free throws (13 attempts) proved decisive in busting the under.
  • Pauline Astier Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier managed only 1 rebound in 14 minutes despite taking 6 shots, as her limited floor time and lack of offensive rebounding opportunities kept her well short of the 2.5 mark. Her 25% usage rate and early foul trouble (1 PF in sparse minutes) restricted her ability to crash the glass consistently.
  • DeWanna Bonner Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner hit the over by one assist despite shooting poorly (2-11 FG), as her 34 minutes of floor time and ball-handling role kept her in position to record multiple dimes even when her scoring touch abandoned her.
  • Pauline Astier Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier played just 14 minutes and grabbed only 1 rebound, far short of the 3.5 over; limited run and a modest usage rate (25%) kept her off the glass and unable to accumulate boards.
  • Angel Reese Under 19.5 PTS23 vs 19.5no clean explanationReese's elite 62% true shooting—fueled by a perfect 6-6 from the free-throw line and efficient 8-16 field-goal clip—pushed her past 19.5 despite modest 23% usage, as she logged all 39 available minutes and capitalized on every scoring opportunity in a blowout win (+11).
  • Angel Reese Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationReese fell one rebound short despite playing 39 minutes and logging 23% usage, held back by foul trouble (5 PF) that likely limited her interior activity and rebounding opportunities late in the game.
10/0449–3459%−19.12u2 games

permalink to 2026-10-04 →

LVA @ GSV23–17−10.22u
  • Gabby Williams Under 4.5 REB11 vs 4.5no clean explanationWilliams dominated the glass with 11 rebounds across 34 minutes, more than doubling the 4.5 line, as her 31% usage rate and clean foul trouble (0 PF) allowed her to stay on the court and crash consistently on both ends.
  • Veronica Burton Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5no clean explanationBurton was limited to 18 minutes and finished with just 1 assist despite needing 4, as poor shooting (1-6 FG, 23% TS) and low usage (23%) kept her out of rhythm as a playmaker. The combination of restricted minutes and inefficiency shut down her assist opportunities well short of the Over.
  • Gabby Williams Under 24.5 PTS25 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWilliams narrowly cleared the line with efficient scoring on 65% true shooting and heavy usage (31%), converting 9-of-18 from the field while playing all 34 available minutes without foul trouble.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5no clean explanationWilson's scoring punch (24 pts on 39% usage) masked a quiet glass night; she grabbed just 4 boards in 35 minutes, falling one short despite heavy offensive involvement, likely due to the team's poor shot selection and rebounding positioning in a lopsided game (−12 +/−).
  • Chelsea Gray Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray fell one assist short despite playing 36 minutes and logging 26% usage, hampered by a quiet offensive night (5-14 FG) that limited her playmaking opportunities and forced her into a scoring role rather than a facilitating one.
  • Gabby Williams Under 20.5 PTS25 vs 20.5no clean explanationWilliams shot 50% from the field and 57% from three—well above her season averages—en route to 25 points in 34 minutes, exceeding the 20.5 total despite modest usage at 31%.
NYL @ ATL26–17−8.90u
  • Angel Reese Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationReese fell one rebound short despite solid efficiency (67% TS) and heavy minutes (34), as her 21% usage rate and the team's offensive balance limited her total touches and second-chance opportunities on the glass.
  • Allisha Gray Over 9.5 PTS7 vs 9.5no clean explanationGray's limited 11-minute workload and poor 1-5 shooting night (20% FG) left her short of the 9.5-point line despite hitting all four free throws. The sharp drop in playing time was the primary factor in her falling two points shy of the total.
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS27 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under, shooting 10-20 from the field (50%) and 3-8 from three while logging 34 minutes and commanding 35% usage—well above what's needed to clear 15.5 points. Her elite 62% true shooting efficiency and high volume made the under untenable.
  • Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones exceeded the 2.5 assists line by dishing 4 assists while playing a full 32 minutes with elevated usage (17%), as the Liberty leaned on her playmaking from the post more than typical. The under missed despite modest offensive efficiency because she operated as a secondary facilitator alongside heavier volume touches in what appeared to be an offensive system adjustment.
  • Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5no clean explanationCanada's offensive usage stayed low at 23% despite her efficient 82 TS%, as she prioritized scoring (25 points on 14 FG attempts) over playmaking in the flow of the offense. She fell one assist short, finishing with 4 dimes while committing 2 turnovers in 32 minutes.
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS27 vs 14.5no clean explanationIonescu torched the line on 10-20 shooting (50% FG) and 4-4 from the free-throw line, nearly doubling the under projection with her 62% true shooting and elite 35% usage rate over 34 minutes.
10/0230–1075%−2.00u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-02 →

DAL @ GSV30–10−2.00u
  • Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers played a full 38 minutes but crashed the glass just once despite high usage (26%), as she functioned primarily as a perimeter scorer and facilitator (10 FT attempts, 6 assists) rather than a rebounder in this matchup.
  • Awak Kuier Over 6.5 PTS6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberKuier fell one point short despite efficient 75% true shooting and 33 minutes of floor time, undone by minimal usage (8%) that limited her scoring opportunities despite converting 3 of 4 from the field.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale's shot-heavy usage (44%) and high volume (21 FG attempts) left little room for playmaking, and she turned the ball over 5 times while recording just 2 assists—well short of the 3.5 line despite her 30-point performance.
  • Paige Bueckers Over 17.5 PTS17 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBueckers fell one point short despite 38 minutes and 26% usage, held back by poor shot selection: she connected on just 3 of 14 field goals (21%), with her 10-for-10 free-throw performance unable to compensate for the ice-cold shooting from the floor.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationArike's scoring-heavy usage (44%) and 5 turnovers limited playmaking opportunities, resulting in just 2 assists despite 34 minutes and 30 points. She also picked up 5 fouls, which may have forced more isolation scoring rather than ball movement in crunch situations.
  • Kiah Stokes Under 4.5 PTS6 vs 4.5no clean explanationStokes hit 3 of 5 from the field (60% TS) and played a season-high 35 minutes, generating enough shot volume despite her low 8% usage rate to surpass the 4.5-point line with 6 points.
10/0124–15 ·2 void62%−10.41u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-01 →

IND @ LVA24–15 ·2 void−10.41u
  • A'ja Wilson Under 30.5 PTS36 vs 30.5no clean explanationWilson shot an elite 73% TS on 31% usage, converting 12-of-15 free throws to reach 36 points and shatter the under; she was nearly automatic from the line and got there repeatedly despite foul trouble (5 PF).
  • Chelsea Gray Under 13.5 PTS23 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray exploded well beyond expectation on 8-15 shooting (53% FG) and a perfect 6-6 from the line, nearly doubling the 13.5 total despite modest 25% usage, powered by elite 65% true shooting efficiency.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's offensive burden was so heavy—31% usage with 36 points on 37 minutes—that she operated almost exclusively as a scorer rather than a facilitator, resulting in just 1 assist despite elite efficiency. The Las Vegas attack ran through her scoring rather than playmaking, making the over on assists a victim of her dominant but ball-dominant performance.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationClark played 37 minutes with high usage (29%) but grabbed just 2 rebounds, falling short of the 2.5 line; she was primarily facilitating (4 ast) rather than crashing the glass, and her team's poor efficiency (-14 +/-) limited offensive rebounding opportunities.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 7.5 AST4 vs 7.5no clean explanationClark's assist total was crushed by a season-high six turnovers and inefficient shot creation (6-18 FG, 29% usage), leaving her unable to generate enough ball movement and helper opportunities despite playing the full 37 minutes. The low-efficiency shooting forced her into isolation mode rather than playmaking rhythm, resulting in just 4 dimes well short of the 7.5 threshold.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5no clean explanationClark's 4 assists fell one short despite 37 minutes and high usage (29%), held back by 6 turnovers and an off shooting night (6-18 FG, 3-12 3PT) that limited her rhythm and playmaking opportunities.
09/3064–3664%−17.54u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-30 →

GSV @ DAL30–20−12.67u
  • Paige Bueckers Over 14.5 PTS10 vs 14.5no clean explanationBueckers' 3-13 shooting (23% FG) and 34% true shooting despite logging 43 minutes left her well short of the over, as inefficient scoring and low usage (18%) prevented her from reaching 15 points needed.
  • Paige Bueckers Over 17.5 PTS10 vs 17.5no clean explanationBueckers shot just 3-13 from the field (23%) despite logging 43 minutes, and her 18% usage rate kept her well below the scoring threshold needed to hit the over. A combination of poor efficiency and limited offensive involvement held her to 10 points, 7.5 shy of the line.
  • Gabby Williams Under 19.5 PTS36 vs 19.5no clean explanationWilliams exploded for 36 points on an elite 69% true shooting (12-23 FG, 5-12 3PT, 7-7 FT) while commanding 36% usage over 37 minutes, nearly doubling the 19.5-point line with a career-caliber shooting performance.
  • Jessica Shepard Over 9.5 PTS4 vs 9.5no clean explanationShepard played heavy minutes (41) but was nearly invisible on offense, shooting just 2-5 from the field and generating only 9% usage—well below her typical volume—to finish with just 4 points despite the extended run.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationThornton grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, reaching 6 boards in 31 minutes despite modest 15% usage; she stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF) and remained on the floor for the full game to accumulate the extra glass.
  • Maddy Siegrist Over 4.5 PTS2 vs 4.5game script — blowout or foul troubleSiegrist saw just 10 minutes of playing time and took only 2 field-goal attempts, limiting her scoring ceiling well below the 4.5-point line despite an efficient 50% true shooting mark. The minimal usage rate of 15% reflects she played a reserve role and didn't get the volume needed to reach the over.
ATL @ WAS34–16−4.87u
  • Angel Reese Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationReese fell one rebound short despite solid efficiency (7-8 FT, 65% TS) because she logged just 28 minutes and 21% usage in a blowout win, limiting her volume opportunities on the glass.
  • Georgia Amoore Over 4.5 PTS2 vs 4.5no clean explanationAmoore's shot selection fell apart despite heavy minutes (28), going 1-5 from the field and 0-4 from three—a 20% true shooting rate that was far too low to reach even 5 points. Her 11% usage rate and struggles from beyond the arc, where she's typically reliable, left her stranded well short of the Over.
  • Shakira Austin Over 5.5 REB3 vs 5.5no clean explanationAustin played 32 minutes but grabbed only 3 rebounds despite 19% usage, falling well short of the 5.5 line—a combination of limited offensive opportunities (3-9 FG) and inefficiency that prevented her from crashing the glass at her typical rate.
  • Shakira Austin Over 9.5 PTS9 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationAustin fell one point short despite playing 32 minutes, held back by inefficient 3-9 shooting (33% FG) that limited her to just 9 points despite solid free-throw conversion (2-2). The low-volume shooting night—likely a product of 19% usage and defensive coverage—prevented her from reaching double figures.
  • Georgia Amoore Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAmoore's catastrophic 1-5 shooting (20% TS) and 0-4 from three—combined with just 11% usage despite 28 minutes—left her well short of 7.5 points; she scored only 2 and couldn't generate offensive opportunities even with extended floor time.
  • Jordin Canada Under 3.5 REB7 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberCanada nearly doubled the projection with 7 rebounds in 35 minutes, significantly outpacing her season averages likely due to extended floor time and elevated usage in a blowout win (+23) where she played heavy minutes without foul trouble (4 PF).
09/2970–3169%−7.22u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-29 →

MIN @ NYL36–23−9.95u
  • Olivia Miles Over 12.5 PTS5 vs 12.5no clean explanationMiles shot just 1-for-8 from the field (12.5% FG) in 17 minutes, unable to find rhythm early and finishing with only 5 points despite 28% usage. Foul trouble (3 PF) limited her availability to make an impact in what became a lopsided game.
  • Olivia Miles Over 9.5 PTS5 vs 9.5no clean explanationMiles shot 1-for-8 from the field (12.5%) despite 28% usage, a historically cold night that made reaching double figures impossible even with her 17 minutes played.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich fell one rebound short despite playing 29 minutes, held back by a low usage rate (9%) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass and compete for boards.
  • Courtney Williams Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberWilliams nearly doubled the projected total, grabbing 8 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy involvement while posting a 24% usage rate that kept her in rebounding position throughout the game. The under missed decisively due to her elevated floor time and offensive workload creating consistent opportunities on the glass despite modest scoring efficiency.
  • Courtney Williams Under 12.5 PTS18 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the under by shooting 8-of-17 from the field (47%) and playing all 38 minutes, generating 24% usage in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just 3 PF. Her efficient scoring night on high volume and heavy minutes availability was the key driver in surpassing 12.5 points.
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu exceeded the under on efficient shooting, going 7-15 from the field (47%) with 4 made threes despite modest usage, and played all 33 available minutes without foul trouble to compile her 18 points. Her 60% true shooting and elevated three-point volume (10 attempts) proved enough to clear 15.5 in a blowout where New York's +15 margin allowed her to stay on the floor.
LVA @ IND34–8+2.73u
  • A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's assist total fell short despite heavy offensive usage (29%), as she took 16 shot attempts and 13 free throws, leaving limited ball-movement opportunities in a game where Las Vegas struggled overall (-16 rating). Four turnovers and a shoot-first role in a competitive contest limited her playmaking ceiling.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS22 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWilson shot just 5-11 from the field despite playing 34 minutes and maintaining high usage at 29%, falling 2.5 points short as her 45% FG% couldn't overcome the modest volume. Her strong 12-13 free throw shooting kept her close, but the field-goal inefficiency—particularly the 0-1 from three—prevented her from clearing the modest 24.5 threshold.
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5no clean explanationMitchell put up 26 points on high volume (34 min, 26% usage) but operated almost entirely as a scorer rather than a facilitator, recording zero assists despite significant playing time—a stark departure from assist expectations for a primary ball-handler in a tight game (+3 margin).
  • Chelsea Gray Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5no clean explanationGray played 37 minutes but pulled down just 1 rebound, well below the 2.5 line, as she operated primarily in a facilitator role (7 assists) rather than attacking the glass or the paint on a team that shot poorly overall. The Las Vegas backcourt struggled to generate offensive rebounding opportunities, limiting her path to the boards despite significant floor time.
  • Caitlin Clark Under 10.5 AST15 vs 10.5no clean explanationClark's 15 assists came in a high-volume offensive game (32% usage, 68% TS%) where she dominated as the primary playmaker, easily clearing the 10.5 line. The under was a misjudgment of her usage rate and the offensive pace of a game where Indiana controlled the tempo.
  • Makayla Timpson Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairgame script — blowout or foul troubleTimpson played just 9 minutes and pulled down only 4 rebounds, falling one short of the 4.5 line; limited bench role and early foul trouble (1 PF in minimal time) prevented her from getting the volume needed to hit the over.
09/27137–5472%−8.21u4 games

permalink to 2026-09-27 →

IND @ LVA24–13−7.28u
  • Makayla Timpson Over 6.5 PTS2 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberTimpson's 25 minutes of playing time couldn't overcome ice-cold shooting—she went 1-for-4 from the field (25% TS) with no free-throw attempts, leaving her well short of the 6.5-point line despite solid rebound production.
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5no clean explanationMitchell's ice-cold 4-16 shooting (25% FG) and 1-6 from three left her two points short despite playing the full 30 minutes; poor shot selection and execution rather than opportunity cost her the over.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's historic scoring efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) made her the focal point of the offense, but her high usage rate (32%) and dominant post presence left little opportunity for playmaking—she recorded just 2 assists despite 35 minutes of elite individual scoring.
  • A'ja Wilson Under 9.5 REB16 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's elite efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) kept her on the floor for all 35 minutes, and her 32% usage rate generated enough possessions to rack up 16 boards—well above the 9.5 line despite only fouling three times in a blowout win.
  • Sophie Cunningham Under 7.5 PTS13 vs 7.5no clean explanationCunningham's perfect 4-4 free-throw shooting and 50% three-point efficiency (3-6) pushed her to 13 points despite modest volume, nearly doubling the under as she converted at an elite 84% true shooting clip in 29 minutes.
  • Sophie Cunningham Under 8.5 PTS13 vs 8.5no clean explanationCunningham's perfect 4-for-4 from the free-throw line and efficient 3-for-6 three-point shooting (50%) pushed her well over the 8.5-point line despite modest usage, as she converted at an 84% true-shooting rate in 29 minutes.
WAS @ ATL42–18−7.04u
  • Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese recorded just 1 assist despite 30 minutes played, as her offensive role centered on scoring and rebounding (13 points, 12 rebounds) rather than facilitating—she turned the ball over only once but generated minimal playmaking opportunities in Chicago's balanced attack.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's 20 minutes and 8% usage were both well below her typical workload, limiting her to just 2 made field goals despite solid efficiency, and she didn't attempt a free throw to compensate.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, held back by minimal usage (8%) and a box-out role that limited her opportunities on the glass in a game without significant volume demands.
  • Michaela Onyenwere Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere grabbed 4 rebounds in 26 minutes despite shooting just 3-9 from the field, as she stayed active on the glass even when her offensive touches weren't falling. The under missed because she reached the mark through volume availability rather than efficiency—she logged solid floor time and pulled down boards at a reasonable rate despite the poor shooting night.
  • Allisha Gray Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray was a pure scorer tonight, posting 22 points on efficient shooting (60% TS) but recorded zero assists despite 35 minutes of play—she operated almost exclusively as a volume scorer rather than a facilitator, with her 23% usage channeled entirely into shot attempts rather than playmaking.
  • Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS13 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberReese fell just short despite solid volume (25% usage, 30 minutes), hamstrung by a brutal 4-15 shooting night (27% FG) that left her one point shy of the over. She made up ground at the free-throw line (4-5) and on the glass (12 rebounds), but the inefficient shooting was the decisive factor in missing 14.5 points.
DAL @ GSV38–12+1.94u
  • Awak Kuier Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberKuier fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (1-5 FG) that limited her involvement and kept her off the glass in a lopsided game where she finished -25. Her 15% usage rate indicates minimal touches and opportunities to crash the boards.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale shot just 2-7 from the field despite playing 26 minutes, and while she converted all six free throws, the inefficient field-goal performance (28.6% FG) left her three points short of the over. Her 21% usage rate and modest 52% true shooting capped her scoring ceiling in a game where Dallas fell into a blowout (-31 +/-).
  • Gabby Williams Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberWilliams exceeded the assist line by one, reaching 4 dimes while playing a full 27 minutes with high usage (30%), giving her plenty of opportunities to facilitate in a blowout win (+27).
  • Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed exactly one more rebound than the line predicted, finishing with 5 boards in 19 minutes of solid efficiency (4-6 FG, 83% TS); the under missed by the slimmest margin despite her limited role and low usage rate.
  • Gabby Williams Under 16.5 PTS20 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams shot 50% from the field (8-16) and maintained efficient scoring throughout her 27 minutes, easily clearing the 16.5-point threshold with 20 points on high volume and elite True Shooting percentage (58%).
  • Jessica Shepard Over 9.5 PTS0 vs 9.5no clean explanationShepard played 24 minutes but shot 0-for-7 from the field, missing every attempt and finishing scoreless despite 21% usage—an anomalous shooting collapse that made the over unattainable.
NYL @ MIN33–11+4.17u
  • Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTS34 vs 22.5paid over the fair numberStewart torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 11-18 from the field and 10-12 from the stripe for a 73% true shooting rate while logging a game-high 38 minutes in a blowout. Her 34% usage rate and near-perfect free-throw shooting (83%) transformed what looked like a modest scoring line into a 34-point performance.
  • Napheesa Collier Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationCollier fell just short with 5 rebounds despite 33 minutes of play, held back by the Lynx's offensive struggles (43% TS) that limited second-chance opportunities and kept the game's pace subdued. She also picked up 5 fouls, which may have caused her to play more cautiously down the stretch when rebounds were needed most.
  • Breanna Stewart Under 9.5 REB12 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart dominated the glass with 12 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy usage (34%), converting at an elite 73% TS and staying out of foul trouble (3 PF), far exceeding the 9.5 threshold.
  • Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5no clean explanationIonescu drew just 28 minutes and despite solid playmaking (6 ast), completely whiffed on the glass with zero rebounds in a game where she didn't crash the boards—a stark departure from the rebounding activity needed to hit 2.5. Limited minutes and zero offensive rebounding activity made the over an uphill climb from the start.
  • Olivia Miles Over 14.5 PTS11 vs 14.5no clean explanationMiles shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) despite playing 30 minutes, and her 40% true shooting—well below her season average—left her 3.5 points short of the over.
  • Olivia Miles Over 11.5 PTS11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMiles fell just short on an inefficient night, shooting 3-12 from the field (25% FG) despite playing 30 minutes with solid usage at 27%. Her reliance on free throws (4-4) couldn't compensate for a cold shooting performance that limited her to 11 points.
09/244–736%−4.41u3 games

permalink to 2026-09-24 →

IND @ MIN0–4−4.00u
  • Caitlin Clark Over 21.5 PTS2 vs 21.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three, combining for just 2 points in 18 minutes despite 30% usage, as historically poor efficiency derailed the over by 19.5 points. The 8% true shooting percentage was the primary culprit—she simply couldn't convert looks that were available within her usage rate.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS2 vs 20.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three despite 30% usage, posting an 8% true shooting percentage—a historically poor offensive night that made the 20.5-point line impossible to reach. Her 18 minutes of playing time compounded the issue, leaving her with insufficient volume to overcome the shooting collapse.
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 PTS10 vs 23.5no clean explanationMitchell shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) in 22 minutes, falling well short of the scoring volume needed to reach 24 points despite solid free-throw shooting (2-2). Her poor efficiency and limited opportunities combined to leave her 13.5 points short of the over.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 19.5 PTS2 vs 19.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three on 30% usage, combining historically poor efficiency with limited volume to fall far short of the 19.5-point line. Her 18 minutes of action and lopsided +/- (-27) suggest Iowa was blown out early, limiting scoring opportunities.
LVA @ PHO1–1−0.32u
  • Jackie Young Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung grabbed 7 rebounds despite a brutal 2-8 shooting night, as the Las Vegas offense stalled (15% usage) and forced her into extended floor time (34 min) where she accumulated boards on high volume attempts. The under missed because rebounding opportunity, not scoring efficiency, was the key variable—she was on the glass hunting for her own misses and her teammates' bricks.
CHI @ WAS3–2−0.09u
  • Sydney Taylor Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationTaylor reached 4 assists despite poor offensive efficiency (5-18 FG, 0-7 3PT), suggesting she leaned into playmaking as a secondary option when her shot wasn't falling, and her 24 minutes of high usage (42%) gave her enough opportunities to exceed the 3.5 line by one.
  • Shakira Austin Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5no clean explanationAustin exceeded the assist line despite shooting 0-for-9 from the field, as her 23 minutes and 25% usage rate kept her involved in ball movement and decision-making even when her shot wasn't falling. She recorded 5 dimes on just 1 turnover, suggesting a facilitation-focused role that compensated for her offensive struggles.
09/238–467%+1.19u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-23 →

ATL @ NYL3–4−1.87u
  • Angel Reese Over 10.5 REB6 vs 10.5no clean explanationReese was limited to just 17 minutes—5-7 below her season average—which capped her rebounding opportunities at 6, well short of the 10.5 line. The limited run was the decisive factor, as her rebounding rate would have easily cleared the over with standard playing time.
  • Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS6 vs 14.5no clean explanationReese was held to just 6 points on 2-7 shooting (29% FG) in only 17 minutes, well short of the 14.5-point line. Limited offensive opportunity and poor efficiency combined to make the over a non-factor.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich fell one rebound short despite playing 16 minutes, collecting just 2 boards on a night when low usage (12%) and a scoreless performance (0-1 FG) limited her opportunities to crash the glass.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 15.5 PTS8 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot just 4-of-12 (33% FG) and 0-of-5 from three despite playing 34 minutes, unable to generate scoring efficiency even with the volume to hit over 15.5 points.
DAL @ SEA5–0+3.06u

Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.