NBA · Nov 12 gameAll props Full sheet

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets

FinalDEN 104 – HOU 107Page updated 20:28 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes8 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 0 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

rebounds 12.5 → 21 actual

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 5 actual

Fred VanVleet · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 4 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 7 actual

Jae'Sean Tate · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 6 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DEN expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 215.5 points · odds to win: DEN 1.53, HOU 2.69

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Mon 00:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 20:28 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 245 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 0 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Christian Braun · 3-pointers 0.5 → 0 · 0.5 below the line · played 13.7 min · no final price

Jae'Sean Tate · rebounds 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 20.4 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · rebounds 12.5 → 21 · 8.5 above the line · played 38.2 min · no final price

Tari Eason · rebounds 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 15.9 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 38.5 min · no final price

Fred VanVleet · assists 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 40.6 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.7 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · rebounds 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 20.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

HOU vs DEN · last 24 games · DEN leads · HOU record 8–16 · average score 111.2–115.2 · HOU has lost by 4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

11 Mar · HOU 93 at DEN 129HOU lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DEN expected to win by 5, expected total 215.5 (Mon 00:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Mon 00:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 43

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 110 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 194 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 327 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 425 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 431 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 435 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 441 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 439 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 477 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 476 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 482 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 379 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 509 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 513 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 515 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 344 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 390 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 921 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 975 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 708 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 711 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 735 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 733 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 816 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 923 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1074 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1116 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.