NBA · May 21 gameAll props Full sheet

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

FinalIND 128 – BOS 133Page updated 07:57 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 6 availability alerts

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Carter · illness · BOS

May not play Tatum · rest · BOS

May not play Pritchard · right shoulder contusion (shoulder) · BOS

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Carter · illness · BOS

May not play Tatum · rest · BOS

May not play Pritchard · right shoulder contusion (shoulder) · BOS

Players and minutes11 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Andrew Nembhard · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 7 actual

Obi Toppin · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Pascal Siakam · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 0 actual

T.J. McConnell · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

Ben Sheppard · Out · left meniscus surgery · listed out, then played

3-pointers 0.5 → 0 actual

Tyrese Haliburton · Out · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · listed out, then played

assists 7.5 → 10 actual

Boston Celtics

Derrick White · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 9 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

BOS expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 222.5 points · odds to win: IND 4.30, BOS 1.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 00:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 07:57 UTC

Who is out

Out Sheppard · left meniscus surgery · IND

Out Furphy · right aclrepair/surgery · IND

Out Haliburton · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · IND

Out Carter · illness · BOS

May not play Tatum · rest · BOS

May not play Pritchard · right shoulder contusion (shoulder) · BOS

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 261 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Pascal Siakam · 3-pointers 0.5 → 0 · 0.5 below the line · played 42 min · no final price

Ben Sheppard · 3-pointers 0.5 → 0 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.4 min · no final price

Derrick White · assists 4.5 → 9 · 4.5 above the line · played 42.1 min · no final price

Sam Hauser · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 9.1 min · no final price

Andrew Nembhard · assists 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Aaron Nesmith · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 39.9 min · no final price

Obi Toppin · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.7 min · no final price

Tyrese Haliburton · assists 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 40.5 min · no final price

Payton Pritchard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 22.6 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 45.5 min · no final price

T.J. McConnell · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

BOS vs IND · last 28 games · BOS leads · BOS record 19–9 · average score 120.4–113.6 · BOS has won by 6.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up114.2 points · 47.9 rebounds · 27.2 assists · 35.5% from three-point range

BOS gives up104.3 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.2 assists · 33.8% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 114.2 points a game · 18th of 30 · league average 113.4about league average

BOS gives up 104.3 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 113.4−9.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/date (2024-05-18)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-17)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-16)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-08)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 115 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-19)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-15)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-14)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-12)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-11)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-10)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-07)ok 200 · 126 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-13)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-09)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 172 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 232 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 238 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-20)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 276 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 150 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 276 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 288 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 535 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1189 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 203 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 205 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 208 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 208 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 260 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 274 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 275 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 412 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 420 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 442 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 535 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 555 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 561 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 565 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 570 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 576 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 585 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 591 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 597 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.