NBA · Final · Playoffs round 4, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 08:09 UTC

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics

at Boston Celtics

BOS expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 216.5 points · odds to win: DAL 3.18, BOS 1.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:35 UTC

DAL 89 – BOS 107

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Mavericks, BOS = Boston Celtics.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

7 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 8 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Mavericksplaying BOS

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Kyrie Irving · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Dereck Lively II · Out · right foot surgery (foot) · listed out, then played

rebounds 7.5 → 5 actual

Boston Celticsplaying DAL

Derrick White · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 5 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 5 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 2 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 08:09 UTC

Who is out

Out II · right foot surgery (foot) · DAL

Out Jr. · left shin/tibia contusion · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Out Biberović · right heel bursitis · DAL

Out Carter · illness · BOS

May not play Tatum · rest · BOS

May not play Pritchard · right shoulder contusion (shoulder) · BOS

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

DAL had 7 days off before this game · BOS had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 292 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Sam Hauser · 3-pointers 0.5 → 2 · 1.5 above the line · played 16 min · no final price

Kyrie Irving · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 36.5 min · no final price

P.J. Washington · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 36.1 min · no final price

Payton Pritchard · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.5 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 14.3 min · no final price

Dereck Lively II · rebounds 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.5 min · no final price

Derrick White · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.2 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · assists 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 42.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

BOS vs DAL · last 19 games · BOS leads · BOS record 13–6 · average score 111.7–104.8 · BOS has won by 6.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

6 Mar · DAL 100 at BOS 120BOS won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up109.1 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.5 assists · 30.6% from three-point range

BOS gives up104.3 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.2 assists · 33.8% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 109.1 points a game · 9th of 30 · league average 113.4−4.3 vs average

BOS gives up 104.3 points a game · 4th of 30 · league average 113.4−9.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 10 ms

sds games/date (2024-06-03)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2024-06-04)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2024-06-05)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2024-06-02)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds games/date (2024-06-01)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-31)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-28)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-29)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-30)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-26)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 19 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-23)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-27)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-25)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-24)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 30 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 30 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 37 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 9 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 82 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 102 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 115 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 116 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 118 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 117 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 118 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 119 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 122 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 173 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 187 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.